Saudi Arabia - joining the dots

A series of blog entries exploring Saudi Arabia's role in the oil markets with a brief look at the history of the royal family and politics that dictate and influence the Kingdom's oil policy

AIM - Assets In Market

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Iran negotiations - is the end nigh?

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Yemen: The Islamic Chessboard?

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Acquisition Criteria

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Valuation Series

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Tuesday 29 January 2019

UK North Sea gets shot in the arm with Glengorm


CNOOC, Total and Edison have made one of the biggest finds in the UK North Sea in recent years. The Glengorm discovery is estimated to contain recoverable resources of 250mmboe which is even bigger than Total’s recent success in the West of Shetlands at Glendronach which had 1tcf of gas (c.160mmboe). Glengorm sits on licence P2215 and in the vicinity of both the Culzean and Elgin & Franklin gas fields which could act as future hosts for Glengorm.

Glengorm is operated by CNOOC (50%) with Total (25%) and Edison (25%) as partners. The exploration well (22/21c-13) was spud on 26th August 2018 with the Prospctor 5 jack-up rig targeting the Upper Jurrasic Fulmar and Heather formations. The HPHT prospect was challenging to drill but persistence has paid off. CNOOC tried to drill the prospect twice in 2017 but failed to do so following technical problems.

Maersk, Premier Oil and Centrica had relinquished the licence in which the field is contained back in 2014 when it was deemed too small and complex to commercialise. Glengorm has clearly exceeded all expectations with unrisked recoverable resources estimated at c.65mmboe back in 2014 (41mmbbl oil and 128bcf gas). The 2014 relinquishment report also highlights a number of prospects in the vicinity and CNOOC, Total and Edison have expectations of further prospectivity in the area for future growth.

Source: Maersk 2014 relinquishment report


Source: Maersk 2014 relinquishment report


Thursday 24 January 2019

Premier success at Zama

Premier and operator Talos have announced the successful appraisal of Zama-2 offshore Mexico. This is the second well on the Zama field, following the initial discovery at Zama-1 in 2017, and reaffirms the massive 600mmbbl oil discovery.

The well penetrated 152m of net pay with a high net-to-gross of 73% (vs. Zama-1 of 63%). This suggests potential resource upside and could see resource estimates being upgraded as the appraisal campaign continues.

Zama-2 will now be sidetracked to penetrate the reservoir vertically to aid coring and testing. The upcoming Zama-3 well will appraise the southern portion of the accumulation. With good confidence on the underlying resources, the Zama partners should now be thinking ahead on development plans.

The Zama field is planned to be developed from a single drill centre with drilling from the platform. Three production platforms are envisaged, each with capacity of up to 100mbopd. Produced oil is planned to be transported via a pipeline to the Dos Bocas terminal located onshore, c.70km away from the field.

For Premier Oil, this development could overtake the Sea Lion development in the Falklands (another large resource optionality for the company), adding visibility to additional near-term production growth.

The Zama partners are: Talos (35% operator), Sierra Oil & Gas (40%), Premier Oil (25%).
Sierra Oil & Gas was recently acquired by DEA.



#Premier #Zama #Mexico #Block7 #Talos #Sierra #Wintershall #DEA

Monday 21 January 2019

Genel grows in Kurdistan


Genel is acquiring interests in the Chevron operated Sarta and Qara Dagh blocks.

Genel will acquire a 30% interest in Sarta and will pay 50% of the field development costs until a specific production target is reached; there will also be a production milestone contingent payment – total spend by Genel is estimated at USD60 million. Chevron will retain a 50% interest and the KRG holds the remaining 2% interest which is carried by the oil companies. Sarta currently has three wells with both Sarta-2 and Sarta-3 having flow tested at c.7,500bopd. The first phase of development will produce from these wells with initial export via trucking.

Qara Dagh is an appraisal licence and Genel will acquire a 40% operated interest through a carry. Chevron will retain 40% interest and the KRG holds the remaining 20% interest. The last well (Qara Dagh-1) was drilled in 2011 which showed complex geology. Genel plans to drill Qara Dagh-2 in 2020.

Genel is slowly rebuilding its profile following a series of disastrous downgrades in Kurdistan – this is now behind the company and it is receiving good cash flow from the Tawke production which it can now reinvest in Kurdistan.

Thursday 10 January 2019

Saudi Arabia announces upgrade to oil and gas reserve base

The Ministry of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources of Saudi Arabia has announced an upward revision to the Kingdom's proven oil and gas reserves, following an independent certification of oil and gas reserves in Saudi Aramco's concession area conducted by leading consultants DeGolyer and MacNaughton (D&M).

The Kingdom previously announced that oil and gas reserves as of 31 December 2017 were 266.3 billion barrels of oil and 307.9 trillion standard cubic feet of gas respectively. Of these, the estimated proven oil and gas reserves in Saudi Aramco's concession area were 260.9 billion barrels of oil and 302.3 trillion standard cubic feet of gas. Following the certification, Saudi Aramco's concession area oil reserves at year-end 2017 would have been 2.2 billion barrels higher or 263.1 billion barrels of oil and 319.5 trillion standard cubic feet of gas.

In addition to Saudi Aramco concession area reserves, the Kingdom also owns half of the oil reserves in the Partitioned Zone jointly owned by Saudi Arabia and the State of Kuwait. The Kingdom's share of the Partitioned Zone oil reserves (onshore and offshore combined) is 5.4 billion barrels and the corresponding gas reserves is 5.6 TCF.

So, including the D&M revision of oil reserves in the Saudi Aramco's concession area, the Kingdom's total proven oil and gas reserves as of year-end 2017 would have been about 268.5 billion barrels of oil and 325.1 trillion standard cubic feet of gas, respectively.

The Minister of Energy, Industry, and Mineral Resources, His Excellency Khalid Al-Falih, noted that this also highlighted three other important realities:

  • That these vast reserves are also among the lowest cost in the world, backed by world-leading economies of scale.
  • That the carbon intensity of Saudi Arabia’s oil and corresponding gas flaring are among the very lowest in the world, and he called on the industry to use this metric alongside profitability.
  • And that it was a tribute to the importance the Kingdom places on integrity, the discipline and world-leading excellence of Saudi Aramco's operations and employees.
'This certification underscores why every barrel we produce is the most profitable in the world, and why we believe Saudi Aramco is the world’s most valuable company and indeed the world's most important,' His Excellency said.

Background:

The results of the D&M's evaluation have conclusively proved the integrity, robustness, and accuracy of the Kingdom's – and in particular Saudi Aramco's - internally-conducted estimates of its hydrocarbon reserves.

The Kingdom's previous evaluations of its hydrocarbon reserves as of the end of 2017, including Saudi Arabia's share of the Partitioned Zone (PZ), were around 266.3 billion barrels of oil (Saudi Aramco 260.9 billion barrels and 5.4 billion barrels in the PZ), and around 307.9 trillion standard cubic feet of natural gas.

It is common industry practice to focus the reserves audit on the major reservoirs in a company's portfolio. Accordingly, D&M evaluated 54 major oil reservoirs operated by Saudi Aramco, out of 368 in Saudi Aramco’s portfolio. These 54 reservoirs alone make up approx. 80% of the Saudi Aramco's reserves in the concession area 260.9 billion barrels oil reserves estimate. D&M's certification confirms that, as of December 31, 2017, these 54 reservoirs contained 213.1 billion barrels of proved oil reserves – conventionally known as '1P' – assessed on a full reserve life basis. This compares to a figure of 210.9 billion barrels of oil for the same reservoirs as estimated internally by Saudi Aramco. D&M's oil reserves certification being 1.0% higher (+2.2 billion barrels) than Saudi Aramco's.

In terms of gas certification, the Ministry noted that D&M evaluated gas reserves in 77 major reservoirs operated by Saudi Aramco, that alone make up approximately 60% of the Kingdom's 302.3 trillion standard cubic feet (tscf) gas reserves estimate. D&M's certification confirms that, as of December 31, 2017, these 77 reservoirs contained 204.9 tscf of proven gas. This certification is 9.2% higher (+ 17.2 tscf) than Saudi Aramco's internal estimate for the same reservoirs, which proves that the Kingdom adopts highly cautious methods in evaluating its oil and gas reserves.

As indicated above, D&M’s evaluation was limited to 'booked' oil and gas resources in the Saudi Aramco's concession area and does not cover other available hydrocarbon resources in the Kingdom, such as the significant unconventional gas reserves recently discovered but not yet 'booked' by Saudi Aramco or the Kingdom. Nor did the D&M cover the Kingdom's share of the reserves in the Saudi–Kuwaiti Partitioned Zone, which has both an onshore and offshore component. The onshore part is estimated by Saudi Arabian Chevron at 2,923 million barrels, while its share of gas reserves in that area is estimated at 877 billion standard cubic feet. In addition, the Kingdom’s share of oil reserves in the Offshore Partitioned Zone is estimated by Aramco Gulf Operations Company at 2,476 million barrels, while its share of gas reserves in the same area is estimated at 4,749 billion standard cubic feet. So, the Kingdom’s share of the total oil and gas reserves in the Partitioned Zone, onshore and offshore combined, is roughly 5.4 billion barrels and 5.6 trillion cubic feet of gas.

This independent evaluation further underscores the Kingdom's strong position and reputation for reliable oil production and supply. It also represents a strong validation of both the robustness and accuracy of Saudi Aramco's internal estimation techniques and processes, and provides in-depth insight into the unique size of the oil and gas reserves in Saudi Arabia.

'This independent third-party certification is in line with the Kingdom's Vision 2030, which promotes transparency, accuracy, and quality of all kinds of critical data. This reflects the continued direction and support provided to the Saudi petroleum industry by the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud; and HRH Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman bin Abdulaziz,' His Excellency said.

Sunday 6 January 2019

Valeura: Turkey's new gas supplier

Valeura continues to make good progress in Turkey where the company announced a technical success at the Inanli-1 well in November. The well continues to be tested into 2019.

Turkey is structurally short gas, importing gas by pipeline and LNG - LNG regasification capacity is 12bcm/year with cargoes from Algeria, Nigeria and the Middle East. Domestic gas production is therefore long awaited and with Valeura owning the local pipeline network around its licence areas, it is in a good position to start supplying the grid once it is in a position to proceed to development.

The recent gas price hike by BOTAS is useful as well - not only does it protect the gas price in USD terms, but the price increase for local buyers has incentivised such buyers to turn to Valeura gas which has the freedom to sell directly to end users.

The domestic gas prices for power producers are: USD9/mmbtu for power producers, USD6.8/mmbtu for industrial customers and USD5/mmbtu for domestic users. Valeura can make inroads with buyers who currently take gas at the higher end of the pricing range from BOTAS.

Saturday 5 January 2019

US resource play map

Reference map of major US L48 resource plays