European gas prices hit decade highs

 

NBP is at 75p/therm (~33% increase YTD)

TTF is at €30.4/MWh (~65% increase YTD)

Despite the sharp rise in European gas prices and arbitrage opportunity for US LNG into Europe, LNG cargoes are being pulled to Asia where prices remain elevated and fetching premiums.

Read More

European TTF breaks through historical boundaries

S&P has highlighted in its recent webinar that the European TTF price has historically traded within a range but that recent gas pricing dynamics has seen it break out of this range.

TTF has historically been bound by the JKM price as a ceiling (spot LNG price in Asia) and the coal switching price as a floor.

• In a tight gas market, TTF traded closer to the JKM price to incentivise LNG supplies into Europe
• In a loose gas market, TTF traded closer to the coal switching price to incentivise more take uptake of LNG by the European power sector

However in H1 2019, there was a big collapse in both the JKM and TTF price. In fact, there has been a period when JKM fell faster than TTF, making it lose its traditional role as a price ceiling and trading below TTF for a brief period.

Read More