All’s well in western Kurdistan

The western part of Kurdistan appears to be holding up following the referendum last autumn. Although there is much to do to reconcile the fragile relationship between Federal Iraq and the Kurdistan region, things for now appear to have stabilised – however upcoming elections in both is limiting any meaningful progress with political candidates not willing to make any bold reconciliatory moves to avoid alienating voters.

The operators in western Kurdistan continue their business. They are getting paid by the KRG although the ability to maintain payments given loss of Kirkuk revenues, which has been reclaimed by Federal Iraq, remains in question. Exports through the Fishkabour-Ceyhan pipeline has not been interrupted despite threats last summer by the Turkish to halt exports through the pipeline if the referendum went ahead – that threat has not been followed through by action luckily for Kurdistan where oil exports remains its financial lifeline.

Based on our discussions with operators, the key constraint to operations is staff and supplies. With the regional airport closed, it has been difficult to get the right manpower and supplies to the oil fields. Transportation is currently from Turkey or from Baghdad. 

Sarsang (HKN 37% operator, KRG 25%, Marathon 20%, Total/Maersk 18%)

Total has taken over Maersk’s stake in the light oil field following the acquisition of Maersk; it may consider divesting the interest given lack of obvious synergies with the wider global portfolio and presence in Federal Iraq. At the end of last year, the field was producing at 15mbbl/d and will be continuing to ramp-up this year potentially reaching 30mbbl/d by year end.

Atrush (TAQA 39.9% operator, Shamaran 20.1%, Marathon 15%, KRG 25%)

First production was achieved in July 2017 and production has ramped up to c.26mbopd. The Phase I facilities are complete with five producers drilled and well capacity of over 40mbopd, although production is currently constrained by facilities at 30mbopd. 2P of 103mmboe and 2C of 304mmboe at the end of 2017 – further conversion of resources into reserves as more wells are drilled and further phases of the development are defined. 

The export pipeline from Atrush to the KRG pipeline is operational and the Atrush oil sales agreement was renewed in February 2018 with crude selling at Brent less USD15.73/bbl including quality discount and transportation costs.

With further appraisal work, debottlenecking and expansion of the development, production could reach 100mbopd.

Source: Shamaran February 2018 investor presentation

Shaikan (Gulf Keystone 58% operator, KRG 27.5%, MOL 14.5%)

Production in 2018 is expected to be 27-32mbopd. Subject to continued payments, Gulf Keystone would look to invest in additional wells and capacity this year to take production capacity up to 55mbopd.

In January 2018, Gulf Keystone signed a new oil sales agreement with the KRG at a price of Brent less USD22/bbl including quality discount and transportation costs. Shaikan crude is largely trucked to Fishkabour for injection into the export pipeline to Ceyhan. Shaikan should begin exporting via the Atrush tie-in pipeline shortly which will reduce trucking requirements and reduce netbacks.

Ain Sifni (Hunt Oil 80% operator, KRG 20%)

Production continues to hover around 10mbbl/d and the operator continues to progress the development which could see production grow to 30mbbl/d. Crude is currently trucked to Fishkabour for injection into the export pipeline to Ceyhan. As production grows, Ain Sifni production could also tie into the Atrush export line.