Shell Gulf of Mexico divestment

On 29^th August, Shell announced that it had agreed to sell 100% of its interests in the Gulf of Mexico Green Canyon Blocks 114, 158, 202 and 248 (the Brutus/Glider assets), to EnVen Energy Corporation for USD425 million in cash. These assets do not appear to form part of Shell's core strategy in the region, with recent activity focusing on the Mars/Vito/Na Kika areas to the east.

The Brutus/Glider assets include the Brutus Tension Leg Platform, and the Glider subsea production system, as well as the pipelines used to evacuate production from the platform. The assets have a combined current production of 25mboepd, although the Brutus platform has capacity to produce 130mboepd.

Given investors' key concern is around the company's debt levels (Shell has over USD75 billion in net debt following the acquisition of BG), and negative free cash flow at current oil price levels, the divestment is welcome and is a step towards the USD30 billion divestment programme mentioned last year.



Source: Shell

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Kurdistan consolidation? DNO's proposed offer for Gulf Keystone

On Friday 29^th July, DNO made a proposal to acquire Gulf Keystone for USD300 million in cash and shares. The tactics around the timing of this offer are unclear, given that Gulf Keystone are part way through a creditor restructuring. Negotiations during creditor processes are generally messy with the potential acquirer having to become involved in discussions with the debt holders, who hold significant power given their ability to "pull the plug" on the distressed company and/or dictate restructuring terms that lead to massive dilution of the existing shareholder base.

The offer of USD300 million, which comprises c.USD120 million in cash and the remainder in shares, represents:

• a 20% premium to the share price of $0.0109 at which, on 14^th July 2016, Gulf Keystone issued shares representing 5.6% of its share capital; and
• a 20% premium to the price at which Gulf Keystone intends to issue further shares. 

DNO further noted that the cash element of the offer would provide an early exit for noteholders and bondholders unable or unwilling to hold equity in DNO.

The acquisition of Gulf Keystone would create further scale and operational synergies for DNO in Kurdistan, and the enlarged entity would operate the Tawke and Shaikan oil fields, with current combined net production of c.89mbopd. Gulf Keystone holds a 58% stake in and operates the Shaikan oil field at a current level of ~40,000b/d, which is transported daily by road tanker to DNO's unloading and storage hub at Fish Khabur for onward pipeline transport to export markets.

For the past couple of years, Gulf Keystone's debt has dominated its story and a combination with DNO together with a clean balance sheet is likely to be viewed favourably by the KRG. However, it is noted that the heavy-oil Shaikan project is a high capex and low margin business that would generate a relatively low rate of return for DNO. As with Genel at Miran, DNO will likely need the support of a farminee to push ahead with the full field development.

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Gulf Keystone debt restructuring

On 14^th July, Gulf Keystone announced the terms of its proposed balance sheet restructuring, marking the culmination of months of discussions with the company's debt holders. The restructuring, if approved by shareholders, will be implemented by way of a debt-for-equity swap and will see existing shareholders significantly diluted.

The company has c.USD600 million of debt, comprising USD335 million of Convertible Bonds and USD266 million of Notes. The restructuring proposes:

• USD335 million of Convertible Bonds: Complete equitisation
• USD266 million of Notes: Refinanced with USD100 million of new notes (the "Reinstated Notes") and through equitisation

Pro forma capital structure

Post transaction, balance sheet debt will be reduced from c.USD600 million to USD100 million. As part of the restructuring, it is envisaged that an USD25 million equity raise be launched as an open offer to the existing shareholders, equating to 10% of the restructured entity if fully subscribed.

Existing shareholders will be significantly diluted and will hold 5% of the company post transaction (pre-open offer) and 14.5% of the company if they fully subscribe to the open offer. Convertible bondholders will represent 20% of the company and the current noteholders will hold 65.5% of the company.

Pro forma ownership

The restructuring is subject to shareholder approval and will be implemented through a UK scheme of arrangement. The board of Gulf Keystone has recommended that shareholders support the transaction, failing which, the company is expected to enter into a formal insolvency and liquidation process.

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Brasse - Brage's younger sibling

On 11^th July, Faroe announced the completion of a successful side-track appraisal well on the Brasse discovery in PL740 (50% WI) in the Norwegian North Sea and revised volume estimates for the discovery.

The objective of the Brasse side-track well was to appraise the south-eastern part of the structure previously identified by the main discovery well. The side-track reached a depth of c.2,530m and encountered a 25m gross oil column and a 6m gross gas column. The side-tack encountered oil and gas in good quality Jurassic reservoir sandstones, similar to those seen in the main well.

Total gross volumes of recoverable hydrocarbons are now estimated to be 28 – 54mmbbl of oil and 89 – 158bcf gas (43 – 80mmboe in aggregate, which compares with pre-drill estimate of 14 – 33mmbbl). The reservoir is of good quality and believed to be analogous to the effective reservoir at the Brage producing oil field in which Faroe has a 14.3% interest.

The Brasse discovery is located within tie-back distance to existing infrastructure with available capacity. It is c.15km to the south of the Brage field platform, c.15km east of the Oseberg Sør field platform, and c.15km to the south east of the Oseberg field platform. Faroe and its partner, Point Resources (50% WI), will now begin assessing options for monetising this discovery.

Brasse area map

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Det Norske-BP: the Norwegian megaforce

On 10th June, Det Norske announced that it will merge with BP Norge through a share purchase transaction to create the leading independent E&P company on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The company will be renamed Aker BP, with Aker and BP as main industrial shareholders holding 40% and 30% of the company respectively; the remaining 30% in Aker BP will be held by Det Norske’s other current shareholders. Note that Aker is currently Det Norske’s main shareholder with a 49.99% of the company. The effective date of the transaction is 1st January 2016 and it is expected to close at the end of 2016, subject to approval by the relevant authorities.

For some time, BP have been looking to sell down their Norwegian position but having been unable to do so for cash, it is interesting to note that they have now accepted shares and follows the trend of Statoil’s recent acquisition of a shareholding in Lundin. The BP branding on the name of the new company now suggests that they may see themselves as longer term players in the Norwegian Continental Shelf.

Det Norske will issue 135.1million new shares at a price of NOK80/share to BP as consideration for all the shares in BP Norge. BP Norge will subsequently be a wholly owned subsidiary of Det Norske. Concurrently, Aker will acquire 33.8million of these shares from BP at the same share price to achieve the agreed-upon ownership structure. The acquisition of BP Norge includes the assets, a tax loss of USD267million and a net cash position of USD178million. All of BP Norge's roughly 850 employees will transfer to the combined organization upon completion of the deal.

Aker BP will hold a portfolio of 97 licences on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, of which 46 are operated. The combined company will have an estimated 723mmboe 2P reserves, with joint production of c120mboepd, with scope to organically double production to more than 250mboepd by the early 2020s. Aker BP will benefit from the combined strength of Det Norske's efficient, streamlined operating model and BP's long experience in Norwegian offshore operations, asset knowledge, technical skills and international experience. Det Norske and BP believe the larger independent company will be able to actively pursue M&A opportunities on the NCS.

Øyvind Eriksen, chairman of the board of directors of Det Norske commented: "Aker BP will leverage on Det Norske's efficient operations, BP's international capabilities and Aker's 175 years of industrial experience. Together, we are establishing a strong platform for creating value for our shareholders through our unique industrial capabilities, a world-class asset base, and financial robustness."

BP group chief executive Bob Dudley commented: "BP and Aker have matured a close collaboration through decades, and we are pleased to take advantage of the industrial expertise of both companies to create a large independent E&P company. The Norwegian Continental Shelf represents a significant opportunity going forward and we are looking forward to working together with Aker to unlock the long term value of the company through growth and efficient operations. This innovative deal demonstrates how we can adapt our business model with strong and talented partners to remain competitive and grow where we see long-term benefit for our shareholders."

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Barents Sea licence awards

The Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy has issued ten new production licences in the Barents Sea as part of Norway’s 23rd licencing round, following applications made by 26 companies in January. This is the first time since 1994 that new exploration acreage has been made available to the industry in the southeastern Barents Sea. 

From the International E&P names:

• Lundin has been awarded interests in five licences (three as operator)
• Det Norske has been awarded interests in three licences (one as operator)
• Tullow has been awarded an interest in one licence (non-operated)
• Cairn (through its Capricorn Norge subsidiary) has been awarded three licences (one as operator)

The companies have committed to binding work programmes that primarily include a drill or drop decision to be made within two years.

Barents Sea licence areas
Source: NPD

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Statoil acquires a further stake in Lundin Petroleum

On 14^th January, Statoil announced that it had acquired 37.1 million shares in Lundin Petroleum, corresponding to 11.9% of the company. Statoil says that it paid c.SEK4.6 billion for the shares, which equates to a price of SEK120/share or a 28% premium to the share price close as of yesterday at SEK97. Statoil purchased the shares over the past few weeks and says it is supportive of Lundin management, its board of directors and strategy, but there is currently no plan to increase its shareholding in the company.

This article was originally posted on 14^th January 2016 and has since been updated

Statoil says "this is a long term shareholding. The Norwegian Continental Shelf is the backbone of Statoil's business, and this transaction indirectly strengthens our total share of the value creation from core, high value assets on the NCS". Despite the longer term strategic rationale, the move is unexpected. Lundin is one of the more expensive E&P stocks and the transaction further increases Statoil’s exposure to the giant Johan Sverdrup development. Questions are now being asked by the market on whether Statoil can continue to pay its dividend.

From an E&P sector perspective, the move is encouraging as it demonstrates industry interest in the subsector, and the news should help shore-up Lundin’s share price. Nevertheless, corporate activity is likely to remain muted until the oil price starts to recover and confidence returns to the sector.

**Update**
On 3rd May, Statoil and Lundin announced than it had acquired an additional 15% in  Edvard Grieg (licence PL388) from Statoil in exchange for issuing 31.3million shares to Statoil worth USD578million. The transaction is expected to close on 30^th June 2016, pending regulatory approvals.

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Ophir's Fortuna farm-out terminated

On 29^th April 2016, Ophir announced that it had terminated its Fortuna farm-out discussions with Schlumberger. Back in January, Ophir announced that it had entered into a non-binding Heads of Terms Agreement with Schlumberger for upstream participation in the Fortuna FLNG development that would result in the oilfield service company carrying Ophir to first oil. However, the two companies have been unable to complete the transaction on the terms agreed and discussions have been terminated.

Ophir’s management must now demonstrate its continued confidence in its ability to attract an alternative partner for the FLNG project. Although development costs have continued to fall as studies continue, reservations still exist about any plans for Ophir to self-fund and sole risk this development.

Having completed the upstream FEED studies, gross upstream capex requirement from FID to first gas has been reduced again, to USD450-500million from USD600million. Ophir continues to progress the project, and fully-termed LNG sales agreements are nearing completion. Offtake selection has progressed to a decision between three alternative solutions. But given additional time is required to fully develop these options to binding agreements, FID has been pushed back to Q4 2016 with first gas now forecast for 2020.

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Gran Tierra the Consolidator

On 30 March, Gran Tierra announced the private offering of USD100 million convertible notes which successfully closed on 6 April. The new funds will allow Gran Tierra to accelerate its exploration programme and places the company in a strong position to act as consolidator in Colombia.

Gran Tierra completed two acquisitions in Q1 2016, building out its portfolio particularly in the Putumayo Basin of southern Colombia and supplementing its interests in the Costayaco and Moqueta fields. With development drilling on Costayaco and Moqueta due to end through Q1 2016, the company will be starting its 2016 exploration campaign shortly, commencing on the newly acquired PUT-7 block. The newly acquired assets provide ample opportunities to accelerate reserves and production growth through the drill bit.

Through a combination of acquisitions and re-investment in the core producing fields, the company is expected to increase production by c.20% from 2015 levels of 23mboepd to c.28mboepd in 2016. The company retains a strong balance sheet with c.USD180 million of cash following the recent fund raise. The company’s cash position, together with operating cash flow of c.USD100 million (if Brent averages USD40/bbl in 2016) is more than sufficient to fund its 2016 base capex budget of USD107 million and its discretionary budget of an additional USD61 million.

The peace process between the Colombian Government and the FARC is expected to conclude shortly and it is anticipated that southern Colombia, historically an area of focus for the FARC, should benefit from greater stability.

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Further payments by the KRG

DNO and Genel Energy announced on 22 March that the Tawke and Taq Taq participants have been paid by the Kurdistan Regional Government (“KRG”) for oil sales during February. News of another month of payment should help boost sentiment.

Given that the export pipeline was out of service during the second half of February, sales at Taq Taq and Tawke were down materially month-on-month at 62,091bopd and 73,124bopd, respectively. Sales into the local market from both fields were, however, invoiced at the wellhead export netback price, in line with the payment mechanism announced by the KRG on 1 February; this process helped limit the month-on-month reduction in revenues. Flows into the export pipeline resumed on 11 March.

Genel, as operator of Taq Taq received USD12.6 million for oil exports, down from January’s USD16.3million. An additional USD2.5 million payment has been made towards recovery of the receivable, down from USD3.2 million.

DNO, as operator of Tawke has reported receipt of USD11.29 million for exports, down from USD17.99 million in January. An additional USD2.17 million has been paid for past deliveries, down from USD3.46 million in January.

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Troubles at Jubilee

Jubilee FPSO

On 18^th February, Tullow and Kosmos warned of a potential maintenance issue with the Jubilee FPSO’s turret. At this stage oil production and gas export is continuing as normal but the vessel is now set to be held in position by tugs rather than weathervane. The implications are that the turret may require maintenance that results in unscheduled shut-in and additional costs to rectify the issue. The length of any repair work is not yet known. Jubilee is forecast to contribute nearly half of Tullow’s H1 2016 production, and all of Kosmos’ H1 2016 production.

Following a recent inspection of the turret area of the Jubilee FPSO by SOFEC, the original turret manufacturer, a potential issue was identified with the turret bearing. As a precautionary measure, additional operating procedures to monitor the turret bearing and reduce the degree of rotation of the vessel are being put in place. SOFEC will now undertake further offshore examinations.

New field start-up have been a cause of concern for investors, as a number of recent offshore projects have cost more and taken longer to deliver. However, the news is a reminder of the risks of the focussed nature of E&P portfolios – many of the international E&P companies are dependent upon a single asset, and even the largest companies – including Tullow and Lundin (Edvard Grieg) remain heavily depend on just a couple of assets.

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Senegal offshore reaches threshold for commerciality

On 8th February, FAR Ltd announced an updated independent resource report (by RISC) of the SNE discovery offshore Senegal (Cairn 40%, ConocoPhillips 35%, FAR 15% and Petrosen 10%). The report increases contingent resources for the discovery to 240mmbbl 1C (from 150mmbbl), 468mmbbl 2C (from 330mmbbl) and 940mmbbl (from 670mmbbl). This assessment includes the SNE-1 discovery well and subsequently reprocessed (more accurate) 3D seismic. Significantly the update does not include the successful SNE-2 appraisal well. Given the lack of major oil discoveries worldwide, SNE is an important find (largest since 2014) and on further positive appraisal drilling, will be an increasingly desirable asset.

Cairn previously indicated that around 200mmbbl is the commercial threshold to underpin a 'foundation' development offshore Senegal, where fiscal terms would yield a 20% IRR at USD45-50/bbl oil price. The resource report would imply that the discovery now has the scale to support a development and the SNE-2 appraisal well demonstrates deliverability following strong production tests (8,000bbl/d from blocky sands and 1,000bbl/d from hetrolithics). The next element of the appraisal campaign is to test for connectivity and the upcoming drilling should help to determine this. Significant further drilling needs to be completed; however results to date are encouraging.

The second appraisal well SNE-3 has now been cored and logged with production test results expected later in February. This will be followed by the Bellatrix exploration well testing a 168mmbbls P50 prospect, then deepening to test the northern extent of SNE (no production test planned). In addition to a more comprehensive resource update in mid-2016, there is the option for three further wells later this year. With drilling time currently ahead of expectations, there is scope to drill an additional well without extending timeline or budget.

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KRG switches to PSC terms to conserve cash outflows to IOCs

Kurdistan exports and payments to IOCs remain unpredictable with the situation subject to change on a daily basis. The Kurdistan Regional Government’s (“KRG”) monthly export report and news flow from the E&Ps gives a glimmer into the dynamics of operating in and getting paid in Kurdistan.

On 4^th February, the KRG published its January 2016 monthly export report – the KRG exported 602mbbl/d through the Kurdistan pipeline network to the port of Ceyhan in Turkey; this is down from 644mbbl/d in December and the Q4 2015 average of 648mbbl/d. The export line was down for just one day last month. Fields operated by the KRG contributed 452mbbl/d (Q4 2015 average was 476mbbl/d), while the North Oil Company’s fields contributed 150mbbl/d (Q4 2015 172mbbl/d).

Today, Genel announced that the Taq Taq field partners have received a gross payment of USD16.3 million from the KRG for oil exported through the main export pipeline; this is down on the USD30 million paid in recent months, as the KRG employs the terms of the Kurdistan’s Production Sharing Contracts (“PSC”) for the first time, rather than an ad hoc payment system. Genel's share of the gross Taq Taq payment fell to USD9 million, from USD16.5 million. The impact of the shortfall has been softened somewhat by the payment of an additional USD3.2 million (USD1.8 million net to Genel) to cover past receivables.

The change to the PSC was clearly intended to reduce the KRG’s cash outflows, so the payment reduction should not be a surprise. The silver-lining is that payments are now linked to the oil price and the PSC provides greater certainty on asset valuations and the merits of increasing spending to help stabilise and potentially grow oil production. However the payment made in January reflects comprise of a number of components: crude quality adjustment, deduction of transportation charges, handling costs as well as the PSC terms, and in general, greater clarity on these variables will need to be disclosed in order to better forecast future cash flows.

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Lundin CMD: Why doesn't the market understand?

On 3rd February, Lundin Petroleum held its Capital Markets Day, which included new guidance on capex, opex, production profiles and 2016 drilling plans. However, greatest emphasis was placed upon a review of the company's tax position, and the benefit of the weakening Krona on costs. 

The CEO expressed strong frustration with shareholders and the low valuation being attributed to the company, remarking that closer examination of the company’s financial statements should be undertaken, specifically around the tax and FX hedging position. Indirect reference was made to the recent Statoil transaction, where Statoil was willing to pay SEK120/share, a premium of 28% to the share price at the time and banks’ willingness to extend Lundin Petroleum’s RBL debt facility.
Tax synergies make a sizeable contribute to the value of Norwegian E&Ps such as Lundin Petroleum, which are subject to a tax rate of 78% on their profits. Lundin provided an update on its tax pools, which total NOK16.8bn (c. USD2 billion). However, one quote cut to the chase: "if Brent stays below $65/bbl, Lundin won't pay any cash taxes until the Johan Sverdrup field is brought on stream in late 2019".

In 2015, the company underspent on its USD1.28 billion capex budget by c.USD250 million, and a significant portion (c.50%) was due to the weakening Norwegian Krona. Savings were also achieved on operating costs and salaries in Norway. Looking ahead, management sees potential for further saving – Phase 1 development costs at Johan Sverdrup have fallen as a result of the current deflationary environment, but given 60% of the capex is priced in Norwegian Krona (at NOK6/USD) costs should fall further as the currency now trades at NOK8.6/USD. Importantly, Lundin has locked in a significant portion of this gain – the company has hedged NOK7.5 billion (USD890 million) at c.NOK8.4/USD over the period 2016-19.

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Amerisur makes a move

 

On 26 January 2016, Amerisur announced the acquisition of Platino Energy (Barbados) Ltd, a subsidiary of COG Energy, a private E&P with a focus on Colombia. The consideration for the transaction is USD7 million which we be paid entirely in Amerisur stock, through the issuance of 22.7 million new shares. A further payment of USD500,000 in cash will also be made in respect of fixed assets. As part of the deal, COG is entitled to a 2% overriding royalty if production in the acquired blocks exceeds 5,000bopd.

The transaction adds prospective acreage (190mmbbls unrisked resources) to Amerisur’s Putumayo Basin portfolio at a limited cost with drill ready prospects close to the company’s Platanillo field. Commitments are limited to USD12 million across the next three years. New production from the blocks would have access to Amerisur’s new pipeline to Ecuador, once completed.

The acquired assets include:

• PUT-8 (Amerisur 50%) immediately west of Platanillo with 45mmbbl in unrisked resources in similar structure
• Coati Block (Amerisur 100%) holds 79mmbbl unrisked resources and the Temblon field with long-term testing potential; the next exploration well is partly carried by Canacol (part of farm-in deal for 20%, excluding Temblon)
• Andaquies Block (Amerisur 100%)

The blocks have no or limited X-factors and are covered by 2D and 3D seismic. Drilling commitments include one exploration well on PUT-8 and the Andaquies Block by May 2017 (although some environmental licenses are still to be secured).

On the export pipeline, Amerisur continues to engage with the Ecuadorean authorities to secure the final EIA approval and complete construction of their strategic pipeline connection through Ecuador. This will reduce transportation costs and increase off take capacity.

Amerisur's acquired and existing acreage
Source: Broker research

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Gran Tierra strikes again

On 15th January, Gran Tierra announced the acquisition of PetroGranada’s interest in the highly prospective Putumayo-7 Block, southern Colombia. The acquisition increases the company’s interest in the block to 100% and adds two more drill ready prospects to the inventory of lower risk prospects established through the recently closed Petroamerica acquisition.

Gran Tierra will acquire all of the issued and outstanding shares of PetroGranada (which holds 50% in Putumayo-7) for USD19 million. In addition Gran Tierra  will pay a further USD4 million if the cumulative production from the block meet or exceed 8 MMbbls. The acquisition will be funded from the company’s existing cash resources; the USD200 million debt facility will remain undrawn.

The acquisition adds 1.9mmbbls 2P reserves  and further 50% working interest in the Putumayo-7 Block (GTE now has 100%). The block holds two drill ready prospects (Cumplidor is effectively an extension of the existing Quinde West discovery on the neighbouring Surotiente block). The company expects to drill the wells later this year. Wells in the region are low cost, at less than USD10 million each and the prospects lie close to existing infrastructure, enabling for fast monetisation.

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Statoil acquires stake in Lundin Petroleum

On 14th January, Statoil announced that it had acquired 37.1 million shares in Lundin Petroleum, corresponding to 11.9% of the company. Statoil says that it paid c.SEK4.6 billion for the shares, which equates to a price of SEK120/share or a 28% premium to the share price close as of yesterday at SEK97. Statoil purchased the shares over the past few weeks and says it is supportive of Lundin management, its board of directors and strategy, but there is currently no plan to increase its shareholding in the company.

Statoil says "this is a long term shareholding. The Norwegian Continental Shelf is the backbone of Statoil's business, and this transaction indirectly strengthens our total share of the value creation from core, high value assets on the NCS". Despite the longer term strategic rationale, the move is unexpected. Lundin is one of the more expensive E&P stocks and the transaction further increases Statoil’s exposure to the giant Johan Sverdrup development. Questions are now being asked by the market on whether Statoil can continue to pay its dividend.

From an E&P sector perspective, the move is encouraging as it demonstrates industry interest in the subsector, and the news should help shore-up Lundin’s share price. Nevertheless, corporate activity is likely to remain muted until the oil price starts to recover and confidence returns to the sector.

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PTTEP may pre-empt BG Bongkot process

On 12th January, it was reported that PTTEP, Thailand’s state owned oil company, is keen to acquire BG’s stake in Bongkot. The Bongkot area is located in the Malay Basin in the Gulf of Thailand and consists of various gas accumulations. It is currently owned by PTTEP (44.45% operator), Total (33.33%) and BG (22.22%). PTTEP’s potential desire to acquire this asset is in line with the strategy of Asian NOCs’ of security of supply. For BG, the disposal represents an exit of a non-core asset which supplies gas only to a domestic market and a tidy-up of the portfolio ahead of its merger with Shell.

Southeast Asia M&A environment
The Southeast Asian M&A market has historically accounted for a small portion of global M&A activity (c.7% by deal value and volume between 2009 – 2014); this is largely due to the relative sporadicity of assets that come to market. High quality assets that become available generally garner strong interest from regional players seeking to consolidate around existing positions and competencies in a part of the world which has experienced strong energy demand growth over the last decade (c.3.5% p.a. since 2000 according to the IEA).

The region is dominated by majors, select large-cap E&Ps and regional NOCs and independents. A number of North American players have recently made divestments in the region as part of wider international retrenchment plans (e.g. Hess, ConocoPhillips) – asset sales have generally been met with strong interest. Recent international new entrants include Ophir Energy (acquired Salamander Energy, RBC acted as a joint financial advisor to Ophir) and CEPSA (acquired Coastal Energy).

In the current oil price environment, gas assets with long term gas sales agreements are viewed as particularly attractive, although may not fit the strategy of players (particularly NOCs) seeking oil-weighted production exposure and more flexible supply or off-take. Although oil-weighted assets are a clearly stated preference, assets with strong production cash flows, such as BG Bongkot are also of interest irrespective of the oil/gas weighting.

Thailand is seen as an attractive area for upstream investment, despite the high level of government take. The country is a net importer of hydrocarbons with the domestic supply shortfall expected to increase as a result of continued economic growth. Economic growth supported by government spending on large infrastructure projects and improvement in political stability, whilst gas demand growth driven by switch to gas-fired power plants. The basins are established and proven with further exploration potential and licensing rounds are held regularly.

BG Bongkot sale process
Feedback from various industry players on the BG Bongkot sale process indicates that there is select interest. It is understood that the Chinese NOCs have entered the process, however the opportunity has only attracted weak interest internally; their ability to be competitive in a time critical auction situation is also questionable given increased internal procedures now required following corruption probes. Other regional players, including local NOCs, see limited strategic rationale in acquiring a domestic supply asset and some have limited financial capacity; Indonesian focused players see more compelling opportunities in their home market which are currently live or upcoming (e.g. ConocoPhillips’ interest in South Natuna Sea Block B).

PTTEP’s pre-emption has already been flagged as a key concern by a number of potentially interested parties which is likely to have discouraged some companies from participating in the process. PTTEP’s pre-emption is a key risk given its active strategy to secure supply in the region (as demonstrated by recent acquisitions of Hess’ assets in Thailand and Indonesia) and its strong balance sheet position. PTTEP pursue an active M&A strategy with 10 acquisitions made globally since 2010 and with a total disclosed deal value of ~$6bn. The state company generally acquires acreage in Thailand through licence awards, but will consider M&A for strategic assets that come to market; in 2014, PTTEP acquired Hess’ 35% in Sinphahorm and 15% in Pailin gas fields in which PTTEP was an existing partner in both.

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