Lest we forget

With coverage of Iranian tensions diminishing and more recently overshadowed by COVID-19, we review the likely direction of travel in light of recent events.

On 23rd February 2020, the country held its 11th parliamentary elections with Conservatives securing all 30 parliamentary seats in Tehran and winning control overt most branches of the State. This will continue the Conservatives run in parliament but does set the stage for a more extreme Presedential candidate from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to win in 2021.

The country has been drastically crippled by the reinstatement of US sanctions with oil production down to c.400mbbl/d from pre-sanction highs of >2mmbbl/d. The public resentment grows stronger both against the US but also its own government after the shooting down of the passenger jet at the beginning of this year. We could well see the path to an escalation in conflict with the US together with further refinement of its nuclear stockpile, although this will only be a real threat and take maximum effect in a tight oil market. With current weak trajectory of oil prices during COVID-19, the US reaction could very well be so what...?

At the same time, COVID-19 has claimed over 200 lives in Iran and question is whether we could see it seek assistance in the international arena if things worsen.