Yemen: The Islamic Chessboard

Houthi take Sana (check),  Saudi airstrike, Next move... Since the start of the year, the Houthis have risen to fame in the drama that is the Middle East. There was little media coverage of the group previously due to their modest beginnings, but also the difficulty of doing serious investigative journalism in Yemen (due to safety and security). However, the increasing threat of the Houthis is now taking centre stage and the international...

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Tullow in the middle

The fight for oil is nothing new – ownership of oil commands tremendous wealth. Countries fight over the black stuff in wars, and perhaps less barbarically nowadays across a table. Individuals go after it in the hope of getting rich, as evidenced by the large number of independents that have popped up in the past couple of decade...

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Iran negotiations: the US conundrum

The intensifying rift between President Obama and Congress poses a risk that could derail the Iranian nuclear talks. Republican Bob Corker, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has sponsored the Iran Nuclear Negotiations Act of 2014 which calls for the President to submit any Iranian deal to Congress for approval. The bill would remove the President’s current authority to waive any sanctions imposed by the legislature....

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Afren - A Shakespearen Tragedy

The story of Afren has the makings of a Shakespearean tragedy. The protagonist is one of the largest and most successful international E&P companies. Its fall from grace is swift as a corruption scandal unfolds and the company falls victim to fate - the fall in oil price drowns the company in debt. There is a slither of hope towards the end as Seplat steps in with an offer to save the company, but all is lost when the merger talks are terminated. Afren meets its downfall when the creditors circle in, taking away whatever dignity is...

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Iran framework agreement - Kerry makes the rounds with the P5+1 and Gulf States

Over the past few weeks, John Kerry has been busy meeting with his P5+1 counterparts and members of the Gulf States in the run up to the 31 March 2015 deadline for the framework agreement on the Iranian nuclear programme...

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Iran negotiation: an untimely letter

On 9 March 2015, Republican senators issued an open letter to Iran that essentially warned the latter any deal entered into with President Obama would be considered an "executive agreement" that would require Congress ratification and more importantly, could be revoked by the next president. The message it clearly sends out is that the US could back out of any agreed nuclear deal, raising serious doubts on whether the US will keep up its side...

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Saudi Arabia - joining the dots: Part 6 - Emergency meeting

Saudi Arabia - joining the dots is a series of blog entries exploring Saudi Arabia's role in the oil markets with a brief look at the history of the royal family and politics that dictate and influence the Kingdom's oil policy. Part 6 - Emergency meeting OPEC's traditional strategy has been to cut production to maintain prices, but recent behaviour of the cartel or at least that of its largest member (and swing producer) shows a marked deviation...

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Saudi Arabia - joining the dots: Part 5 - Breakeven, OPEC's downfall

Saudi Arabia - joining the dots is a series of blog entries exploring Saudi Arabia's role in the oil markets with a brief look at the history of the royal family and politics that dictate and influence the Kingdom's oil policy. Part 5 - Breakeven, OPEC's downfall The above chart, taken from the Wall Street Journal, paints a grim picture.  It shows the oil price required by the various OPEC members to meet their budgets. As of 10 October...

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