Lest we forget

With coverage of Iranian tensions diminishing and more recently overshadowed by COVID-19, we review the likely direction of travel in light of recent events. On 23rd February 2020, the country held its 11th parliamentary elections with Conservatives securing all 30 parliamentary seats in Tehran and winning control overt most branches of the State. This will continue the Conservatives run in parliament but does set the stage for a more extreme Presedential candidate from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to win in 2021. The country has been drastically...

Read More

The nonsense of releasing US Strategic Petroleum Reserves

Trump is on a mission to contain oil prices and has been sending strong tweets and messages blaming OPEC and supposed ally Saudi Arabia for the current levels of “high” oil prices. The Trump administration’s policies are in complete dissonance as tampering with the Iranian sanctions is a key cause of the tightening of global oil supply and strong noises around US energy independence is in complete opposition to Trump asking OPEC to pump more oil,...

Read More

Iranian sanctions supports Chinese cause for the Petro-Yuan

Iran is not short of heavyweight supporters following the decision to re-impose strong sanctions on the country by the US. Although Europe works to salvage what it can of the JCPOA, most likely going down the ex-US route, President Trump’s decision on 12 May will still likely cause a retrenchment of European investment into Iran given the far reaching implications for any company (US or not) with a connection to the country. The Chinese and Indians...

Read More

Total to pull out of Iranian mega gas project if sanction waivers not granted

Total has warned that it will pull out of the giant South Pars development offshore Iran if it is unable to secure sanction waivers. The imposition of sanctions would be crippling for Total as it would completely lock it out of any US related activity including the ability to access the capital markets. Should Total pull out, partner CNPC will take over Total’s 50.1% stake and operatorship of the project under a previous agreement...

Read More

OVL to bid for South Azadegan oil development in Iran

Indian oil giant ONGC Videsh Limited ("OVL") will bid for the development rights of the giant South Azadegan in Iran. There is strong competition with the likes of Gazprom, Lukoil, Rosneft, Shell, Total, Eni Petronas, Inpex, Sinopec and CNPC. of Malaysia and Russia’s Gazprom. OVL is one of 34 companies that pre-qualified last year for development of the field which is estimated to contain 6bnboe recoverable and currently produces 80mbbl/d - with the right investment, this could reach 320mbbl/d. The National Iranian Oil Co ("NIOC") will issue a...

Read More

CNPC could take over Total's interests in Iran

CNPC is considering taking over Total's stake in a the giant South Pars development if Total needs to exit Iran to comply with any new U.S. sanctions. In October, President Trump refused to certify Iran's compliance with the nuclear deal leading to a Congressional vote on whether to reimpose sanctions on Iran. The date of the vote has not yet been set , but if sanctions are reimposed they could prohibit companies working in Iran from also operating in the United States. For Total, the stakes are high, where they have much larger operations in...

Read More

OPEC may extend yet

Saudi Arabia has been working tirelessly behind the scenes and appears to be gaining good momentum with the major actors of OPEC + 1 (i.e. Russia) for extending the OPEC output agreement beyond April 2018. Saudi Arabia and its new ally, Russia, are keenly in favour of maintaining the cuts until June 2018 and several other producers have recently signaled their support for an extension as well. Iran: Initially one of the tougher partners at the...

Read More

Iran interim agreement: the Minotaur's labyrinth

In the story of the Minotaur, Daedalus was tasked with building a labyrinth under the order of King Minos of Crete to imprison the dreaded creature. The Minotaur, part man part bull, was an unnatural being. He was created when Pasiphae, King Minos’ wife mated with the bull sent by Poseidon; this was made possible by the wooden cow crafted by Daedalus into which Pasiphae climbed into. The Iran framework agreement, is in some respects like the...

Read More

Iran negotiations: the US conundrum

The intensifying rift between President Obama and Congress poses a risk that could derail the Iranian nuclear talks. Republican Bob Corker, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has sponsored the Iran Nuclear Negotiations Act of 2014 which calls for the President to submit any Iranian deal to Congress for approval. The bill would remove the President’s current authority to waive any sanctions imposed by the legislature....

Read More

Iran framework agreement - Kerry makes the rounds with the P5+1 and Gulf States

Over the past few weeks, John Kerry has been busy meeting with his P5+1 counterparts and members of the Gulf States in the run up to the 31 March 2015 deadline for the framework agreement on the Iranian nuclear programme...

Read More

Iran negotiation: an untimely letter

On 9 March 2015, Republican senators issued an open letter to Iran that essentially warned the latter any deal entered into with President Obama would be considered an "executive agreement" that would require Congress ratification and more importantly, could be revoked by the next president. The message it clearly sends out is that the US could back out of any agreed nuclear deal, raising serious doubts on whether the US will keep up its side...

Read More

Obama Administration to bypass Congress on deal with Iran?

Obama Administration reported plan to bypass Congress on a deal with Iran Administration’s plan to suspend economic sanctions against Iran without a vote in Congress …Administration says Congress will have final say in whether to permanently lift sanctions Permanent sanctions would only be lifted if Tehran demonstrates compliance with restrictions on its nuclear programme …and Iran must make sufficient progress in conceding its...

Read More