Sorry State of the Union

 This publication rarely ventures into geopolitics – especially that of the USA – but the rapidly shifting world order warrants a record of where things stand, two months into the term of the new administration.Many have referred to the current events as a tectonic or seismic shift. We are beyond that now with the destruction of long-held relationships with allies, institutions, and the foundations of democracy. We are in paradigm shift territory. The world has enjoyed, and newer generations have taken for granted, the hard-fought peace since...

Read More

Trump administration hampers US oil

Plains All American Pipeline company has been denied a request for an exemption from steel import tariffs. This will hit plans to build much needed takeaway capacity for the evacuation of oil from the Permian Basin. The capacity bottleneck has already manifested in large discounts for Midland-Permian crude which is trading at a discount of c.USD12/bbl to WTI. Plains sought an exemption for high-grade steel from Greece for its 585mbopd Cactus...

Read More

The nonsense of releasing US Strategic Petroleum Reserves

Trump is on a mission to contain oil prices and has been sending strong tweets and messages blaming OPEC and supposed ally Saudi Arabia for the current levels of “high” oil prices. The Trump administration’s policies are in complete dissonance as tampering with the Iranian sanctions is a key cause of the tightening of global oil supply and strong noises around US energy independence is in complete opposition to Trump asking OPEC to pump more oil,...

Read More

Saudi and Russia dominate gossip columns in run up to June OPEC meeting

As we approach the June OPEC meeting, all eyes on Saudi Arabia and Russia for any clues on the direction they will go on 22nd June. With the sanctions on Iran and imminent collapse of Venezuela, Trump has asked the two power weights to step in to avoid oil prices going any higher. This in itself is ironic as the US has been trying to wean itself off imports and attain energy independence from OPEC, yet it is now openly asking Saudi Arabia to...

Read More

Iranian sanctions supports Chinese cause for the Petro-Yuan

Iran is not short of heavyweight supporters following the decision to re-impose strong sanctions on the country by the US. Although Europe works to salvage what it can of the JCPOA, most likely going down the ex-US route, President Trump’s decision on 12 May will still likely cause a retrenchment of European investment into Iran given the far reaching implications for any company (US or not) with a connection to the country. The Chinese and Indians...

Read More

Total to pull out of Iranian mega gas project if sanction waivers not granted

Total has warned that it will pull out of the giant South Pars development offshore Iran if it is unable to secure sanction waivers. The imposition of sanctions would be crippling for Total as it would completely lock it out of any US related activity including the ability to access the capital markets. Should Total pull out, partner CNPC will take over Total’s 50.1% stake and operatorship of the project under a previous agreement...

Read More