Iran interim agreement: the Minotaur's labyrinth

In the story of the Minotaur, Daedalus was tasked with building a labyrinth under the order of King Minos of Crete to imprison the dreaded creature. The Minotaur, part man part bull, was an unnatural being. He was created when Pasiphae, King Minos’ wife mated with the bull sent by Poseidon; this was made possible by the wooden cow crafted by Daedalus into which Pasiphae climbed into. The Iran framework agreement, is in some respects like the...

Read More

Suppressing the Brotherhood: Avoiding a Repeat of History

On 4 July 2013, the Egyptian military removed President Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood from power after four days of intense street protests. General Sisi, the Egyptian defence minister at the time, quickly took the helm and announced the change in government in a televised address to fireworks and cheering crowds across the country. The US, UN and EU were reluctant to describe the ousting as a coup, although all voiced concerns about the...

Read More

Gulf of Aden: Dire Straits

The Gulf of Aden is a strategically important shipping route linking the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. The port city of Aden controls the Bab al-Mandab strait, the gateway between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden through which 21,000 ships pass through each year. According to the EIA, 3.8mmbbl/d of crude oil and refined products passed through this route in 2013 alone. The capture of Aden by the Houthis on 25 March 2015 was therefore a...

Read More

Saleh: Enemies become allies

The Houthi movement was founded in the 1990s to revive a branch of Shia Islam known as Zaidism. Historically the Zaidis had ruled over North Yemen until their toppling in 1962 during the Yemen Civil War. Since then, they have been increasingly marginalised by the new regime which viewed Zaidism as a threat. In the beginning, the Houthi movement was peaceful. It sought a voice in a regime where it was being opressed. It called for a partnership...

Read More

Yemen: The Islamic Chessboard

Houthi take Sana (check),  Saudi airstrike, Next move... Since the start of the year, the Houthis have risen to fame in the drama that is the Middle East. There was little media coverage of the group previously due to their modest beginnings, but also the difficulty of doing serious investigative journalism in Yemen (due to safety and security). However, the increasing threat of the Houthis is now taking centre stage and the international...

Read More

Iran negotiations: the US conundrum

The intensifying rift between President Obama and Congress poses a risk that could derail the Iranian nuclear talks. Republican Bob Corker, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has sponsored the Iran Nuclear Negotiations Act of 2014 which calls for the President to submit any Iranian deal to Congress for approval. The bill would remove the President’s current authority to waive any sanctions imposed by the legislature....

Read More

Iran framework agreement - Kerry makes the rounds with the P5+1 and Gulf States

Over the past few weeks, John Kerry has been busy meeting with his P5+1 counterparts and members of the Gulf States in the run up to the 31 March 2015 deadline for the framework agreement on the Iranian nuclear programme...

Read More

Iran negotiation: an untimely letter

On 9 March 2015, Republican senators issued an open letter to Iran that essentially warned the latter any deal entered into with President Obama would be considered an "executive agreement" that would require Congress ratification and more importantly, could be revoked by the next president. The message it clearly sends out is that the US could back out of any agreed nuclear deal, raising serious doubts on whether the US will keep up its side...

Read More

Saudi Arabia - joining the dots: Part 6 - Emergency meeting

Saudi Arabia - joining the dots is a series of blog entries exploring Saudi Arabia's role in the oil markets with a brief look at the history of the royal family and politics that dictate and influence the Kingdom's oil policy. Part 6 - Emergency meeting OPEC's traditional strategy has been to cut production to maintain prices, but recent behaviour of the cartel or at least that of its largest member (and swing producer) shows a marked deviation...

Read More

Saudi Arabia - joining the dots: Part 5 - Breakeven, OPEC's downfall

Saudi Arabia - joining the dots is a series of blog entries exploring Saudi Arabia's role in the oil markets with a brief look at the history of the royal family and politics that dictate and influence the Kingdom's oil policy. Part 5 - Breakeven, OPEC's downfall The above chart, taken from the Wall Street Journal, paints a grim picture.  It shows the oil price required by the various OPEC members to meet their budgets. As of 10 October...

Read More

Saudi Arabia - joining the dots: Part 4 - The price wars, defending market share

Saudi Arabia - joining the dots is a series of blog entries exploring Saudi Arabia's role in the oil markets with a brief look at the history of the royal family and politics that dictate and influence the Kingdom's oil policy. Part 4 - The price wars, defending market share The sudden fall in the oil price in the middle of 2014 and the subsequent lack of response by OPEC is a stark reminder of its members' policy of defending market share,...

Read More

Saudi Arabia - joining the dots: Part 3 - The reshuffling has begun

Saudi Arabia - joining the dots is a series of blog entries exploring Saudi Arabia's role in the oil markets with a brief look at the history of the royal family and politics that dictate and influence the Kingdom's oil policy. Part 3 - The reshuffling has begun Ali al-Niami's job remains safe...for now In a further move which signals King Salman's tightening grip over the Kingdom's affairs since coming to power,  Salman promoted...

Read More

Saudi Arabia - joining the dots: Part 2 - Scandal

Saudi Arabia - joining the dots is a series of blog entries exploring Saudi Arabia's role in the oil markets with a brief look at the history of the royal family and politics that dictate and influence the Kingdom's oil policy. Part 2 - Scandal In 2006, the then King Abdullah created the Allegiance Council in 2006 to help select future rulers. In March 2014, Prince Muqrin was appointed by Abdullah to be the next in line after Salman, placing...

Read More

Saudi Arabia - joining the dots: Part 1 - The return of the Sudairis

Saudi Arabia - joining the dots is a series of blog entries exploring Saudi Arabia's role in the oil markets with a brief look at the history of the royal family and politics that dictate and influence the Kingdom's oil policy. Part 1 - The return of the Sudairis On Friday 23rd January 2015, King Abdullah passed away paving the way for the Sudairi branch of the Royal Family to consolidate power and strengthen its grip over the country. ...

Read More