European gas storage is full

European gas storage is full and Equinor has highlighted three potential catalysts that could provide short term relief for the current super low European gas prices

1. A delay to Nord Stream 2 due to sanctions
2. The lack of a transit agreement with Ukraine
3. A colder than expected winter

The Nord Stream 2 project was expected to come onstream on 1 January 2020. However with ongoing concerns that the EU's reliance on Russian gas continues to grow and Trump considering sanctions on the project, it is likely to be delayed.


Russia's agreement to transit gas through Ukraine also expires in January 2020 and there is current uncertainty on whether a new agreement can be reached between the two countries.


So upside to European gas prices to exist as we head into the winter in north west Europe.

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First step in reversion of LNG pricing structures

LNG has historically been priced to an oil price marker. This is because until recently, LNG has been a point-to-point business - LNG was produced in one country and shipped under a 20-30 year contract to a single destination and the LNG tanker would shuffle back-and-forth between the two end points. This underpinned the project financing for construction of liquefaction projects.

LNG prices were then linked to oil as both the LNG producing nations and importers typically had no mature domestic gas market, and hence no price discovery for the gas, but for the importing country, the LNG would have displaced oil for power generation.

Since the genesis of North American LNG, US Gulf Coast exports have been priced to Henry Hub ("HH"), with contracts being HH plus a liquefaction toll. However, buyers are starting to shift to being overweight HH contracts and the last few weeks have seen the first set of contracts away from HH linkage.

On 2^nd April, NextDecade signed a 20 year SPA to deliver LNG from its Rio Grande facility with Shell. The pricing is c.75% linked to Brent with the remainder linked to HH, on a FOB basis. First LNG is planned to be in 2023. This was the first-ever LNG contracts out of the US to be indexed to Brent and comes with full destination flexibility.

On 5^th April, Shell went one step further by agreeing to sell LNG to a Japanese utility with a linkage to coal prices and is the latest innovation to help buyers seeking to diversify risks. This contract is for 10 years and is the first ever coal-linked contract.

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Waha gas pricing goes negative

Chart of the week: Waha hub gas pricing goes negative

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Valeura: Turkey's new gas supplier

Valeura continues to make good progress in Turkey where the company announced a technical success at the Inanli-1 well in November. The well continues to be tested into 2019.

Turkey is structurally short gas, importing gas by pipeline and LNG - LNG regasification capacity is 12bcm/year with cargoes from Algeria, Nigeria and the Middle East. Domestic gas production is therefore long awaited and with Valeura owning the local pipeline network around its licence areas, it is in a good position to start supplying the grid once it is in a position to proceed to development.

The recent gas price hike by BOTAS is useful as well - not only does it protect the gas price in USD terms, but the price increase for local buyers has incentivised such buyers to turn to Valeura gas which has the freedom to sell directly to end users.

The domestic gas prices for power producers are: USD9/mmbtu for power producers, USD6.8/mmbtu for industrial customers and USD5/mmbtu for domestic users. Valeura can make inroads with buyers who currently take gas at the higher end of the pricing range from BOTAS.

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SDX makes a play opening discovery in Morocco – Lalla Mimouna

SDX has made a gas discovery in Morocco at the LNB-1 well on its Lalla Mimouna licence.

The well successfully drilled into two targets:

• Lafkerena (deeper)
• Upper Dlalha (shallower)

The well is being completed as a producer in the Upper Dlalha and the deeper Lafkerena is being suspended until the appropriate equipment can be mobilised.

The Lafkerena target is significantly larger than previously encountered on the nearby Sebou licence. Management estimate unrisked mid-case volumes of 10.2bcf of gas and 55,000bbl of condensates.

Full press release below:

SDX Energy Inc. the North Africa focused oil and gas company, is pleased to announce that a conventional natural gas discovery has been made at its LNB-1 exploration well on the Lalla Mimouna permit in Morocco (SDX 75 %).

The LNB-1 well was drilled to a total depth of 1861 meters. The primary target was in the Lafkerena sequence, where 300 meters of gas bearing horizons were encountered in a significantly over-pressured section. The mudlog obtained through the section showed elevated gas readings of more than 20% with multiple sections above 50%. This section could not be logged using conventional methods due to hole conditions.

The gas shows in this section contained heavier hydrocarbon components throughout, which is indicative of a thermogenic hydrocarbon source rock. These types of shows have not been seen to date in other parts of the basin and indicate that a new petroleum system has been encountered in this area. Based on the mudlog shows, reservoir quality information from the formation cuttings, analogue fields (outside the Gharb basin), and the size of the feature as currently mapped, a preliminary recoverable gas volume has been estimated by management. This results in an un-risked mid-case volume of 10.2 Bscf of conventional natural gas and 55 thousand barrels of condensate. This is significantly larger than the traps typically encountered in Sebou and would exceed the size required to justify development and connection to the existing infrastructure in the Sebou area.

Additionally in the secondary target, the Upper Dlalha, 2.6 meters of net conventional natural gas pay sands were encountered with average porosity in the pay section of 33%. This pay section is similar to the Guebbas targets, from which SDX successfully produces on the Sebou permit.

The well is now being completed as a conventional gas producer in the Upper Dlalha with the deeper Lafkerena section being suspended until the appropriate equipment can be mobilized, to test and produce from this over-pressured section. The timetable to test this section has not been finalized and will be the subject of a future update.

The drilling rig will now move to the LMS-1 exploration well in the Lalla Mimouna Nord permit, which will be the last well of the current drilling campaign.

Paul Welch, President and CEO of SDX, commented:

“We are very excited about the results of this exploration well. It was a higher risk exploration prospect than previous drilling in Sebou, as it was a sequence that had not been previously penetrated in a similar structural location. We had anticipated a higher-pressure section, based upon offset drilling in the area, but the actual pressures encountered, the thickness of the section, and the type and amount of shows significantly exceeded our expectations.”

“We are currently in the early planning phases of determining how best to complete and test this

section. The estimated volume potential is very encouraging and I look forward to updating the market further on our activities in due course. Meanwhile, we have one more exploration well to drill on the permit in this campaign and I am looking forward to some more positive results based upon our success in LNB-1.”

Source: http://www.sdxenergy.com/~/media/Files/S/Seadragon-Corp/press-release/press-release-2018/20180420_SDX%20Press%20Release.pdf

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SDX has made a gas discovery on its South Disouq licence

SDX made a gas discovery with the Ibn Yunus-1X well on its South Disouq licence. The well is planned to be tied into nearby infrastructure being constructed to commercialise the original gas on the block (SD-1X). First gas on the licence, which will now be from both wells, is targeted for H2 2018.

SDX has a 55% operated stake in the licence, having farmed out 45% to IPR in February 2015. SDX made the SD-1X discovery in 2017 which tested successfully and now being developed through an Early Production System. The gas price is understood to be under negotiation which could be above the country’s historical domestic price of USD2.65/mmbtu.

Further exploration on the licence is now planned targeting the estimated 1.3tcf of resource potential (P10).

Press announcement

SDX Energy Inc. (TSXV, AIM: SDX), the North Africa focused oil and gas company, is pleased to announce
that a gas discovery has been made at its Ibn Yunus-1X exploration well at South Disouq, Egypt (SDX 55%
working interest and operator).

The Ibn Yunus-1X well was drilled to a total depth of 9068 feet and encountered 100.8 feet of net
conventional natural gas pay in the Abu Madi horizon, which had an average porosity in the pay section of 28.5%. The well came in on prognosis but with a reservoir section that was of better quality and thicker than pre-drill expectations.

The well will be completed as a producer in the Abu Madi section and then tested after the drilling rig has moved off location. The testing is anticipated to commence between 30 and 45 days after the rig departs, depending on the availability of testing equipment. After a successful test, it is anticipated that the well will be connected to the infrastructure located adjacent to the original SDX discovery in the basin, SD-1X, where production start-up is anticipated in the second half of 2018.

Paul Welch, President and CEO of SDX, commented:
“We are extremely encouraged with today’s discovery, our second consecutive discovery at South Disouq.

This highly positive drilling result further demonstrates the very significant natural gas potential the
licence holds. Combined, these two successful wells confirm our views of the subsurface geology and
demonstrate that we are on course to realise the full potential of the licence. We look forward to updating shareholders on future developments at South Disouq in due course.” 

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Double success for Energean – IPO and FID

Energean put the East Med on the map this week propelling the region into the headlines.

Energean debuted on the London Stock Exchange at the beginning of this week with its Initial Public Offering and USD460 million of new money putting the company’s market capitalisation at just under USD1 billion. The company’s flagship asset is its 70% stake in the Karish & Tanin gas fields offshore Israel which contain 2.4tcf of gas and 33mmboe of light hydrocarbon liquids. First gas is targeted for 2021. The company also has producing assets in Greece and an exploration portfolio throughout the Aegean region.

In the same week Energean reached Final Investment Decision on the Karish & Tanin development giving the green light to commence the USD1.6 biliion project. USD405 million from the IPO proceeds will be used to fund Energean’s 70% share of the project and partner Kerogen will fund its 30% stake. A USD1.275 billion bank facility will also be used to fund this ambitious project.

Energean has secured long-term gas agreements with some of the largest private power producers and industrial companies in Israel. To date it has contracted for the purchase of a total of 61bcm over a period of 16 years, at an annual rate of c.4.2bcm p.a..

The East Med has become a hot play for gas and Karish & Tanin follow in the footsteps of giant gas fields in the region including Leviathan, Zohr and Aphrodite. Energean is set to become an exciting story to follow as industry interest in the East Med grows and the demand for its gas becomes increasingly important being in the centre of short gas MENA countries and the doorstep of Europe.

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Delek and Noble seeking to acquire gas pipeline to Egypt

Following Noble and Delek’s agreement to sell 64bcm of gas into Egypt via Egyptian intermediary Dolphinus Holdings, the two upstream companies have commenced discussions to acquire EMG, the business which owns the Arish-Ashkelon pipeline (otherwise known as the EMG pipeline).

This is one of the routes contemplated by Noble and Delek as part of plans to export gas into the wider East Med and Europe. The 64bcm of gas will be sourced from Tamar and Leviathan, the latter scheduled to deliver first gas at the end of 2019. Both fields are operated by Noble Energy.

Source: Delek, February 2018

The EMG pipeline used to export gas from Egypt to Israel under a deal agreed in 2008. However post the Arab Spring, the pipeline was increasingly the target of militant attacks and together with an emerging gas supply shortage, gas exports to Israel were terminated altogether. A lawsuit is continuing in the background between Egypt, Israel and EMG around the termination of gas exports.

In the meantime, it is understood that technical studies have begun to reverse the flow of the system for sending Israeli gas to Egypt.

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Dolphinus and the wider Egyptian gas hub story

Dolphinus was established with the main aim of becoming a “reliable and stable supplier of gas to major industrial gas distributors and consumers in Egypt”. It was co-founded by prominent Egyptian entrepreneurs Dr. Alaa Arafa, Eng. Khaled Abu Bakr and Mohamed Khalifa.

As a first step in its strategy, Dolphinus entered into a 64bcm, 10 year gas supply contract with Noble Energy and Delek Drilling for their gas in Israel (see Israel's Leviathan and Tamar gas to be sold into Egypt).

This is a welcome move for Egypt as Dolphinus can act as “middleman” for sourcing Israeli gas into Egypt. The two countries are still embroiled in a lawsuit over compensation to Israel when Egypt stopped supplying gas to the former in 2014 under a long term contract after Egypt ran into domestic supply shortages. Dolphinus therefore acts as a politically clean way to buy gas from Israel.

Dolphinus sees Egypt becoming a regional gas hub and looks to take part in that story by playing to the as import side of the story. Egypt has the right ingredients to be a hub. The country has a long history with gas, being an exporter for decades up until 2014 before needing to import gas in the last few years. This means the country has much of the infrastructure in place from domestic gas grids, cross-border pipelines, LNG facilities and access to FSRU capabilities.

While Egypt remains short gas, it is on the verge of being able to export again given the recent large discoveries in the offshore and also the emerging ability to re-export gas sourced from another country. This introduces the concept of Egypt being a gas trader, albeit currently at very early stages.

The existence of LNG export facilities means that the country has the ability (as it did before) to ship gas to a wide variety of destinations and is not reliant on pipeline infrastructure to penetrate markets. Being on the doorstep of the East Med allows Egypt to tap abundant sources of gas and the developing gas import dynamics means that the country is no longer tied to domestic supply sources to feed LNG – the issue back in 2014 when domestic demand outstripped supply and led to LNG facilities to call force majeure and stop exports.

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Israel's Leviathan and Tamar gas to be sold into Egypt

Noble Energy and Delek Drilling announced plans in February to export gas to Egypt. The plan is to supply 64bcm over a 10 year period to Egypt’s Dolphinus Holdings – 32bcm from Leviathan and 32bcm from Tamar.

Each field is contracted up to 3.5bcm p.a. or c.350mmcfpd and will bring the partners USD15 billion over the life of the supply contract. The contracted price and terms are in line with other supply contracts from these fields which is based on a Brent linked formula.

Source: Delek Drilling, February 2018

Leviathan is owned by Delek Drilling (45.34%), Noble Energy (39.66% operator), Ratio Oil Exploration (15%). The field is on track to target first gas by end 2019 and with the extra 350mmcfpd to Dolphinus brings contracted sales close to 900mmcfpd, just below the 1bcfpd target. The first phase of the field is planned to deliver 1.2bcfpd from four wells.

Source: Noble Energy, November 2017 with 525mmcfpd firm GSPAs at the time

Tamar is owned by Isramco Negev (28.75%), Noble Energy (25% operator), Delek Drilling (22%), Tamar Petroleum (16.75%), Dor Gas (4%) and Everest Infrastructures (3.5%) – this reflects the ownership post the recent sale of 7.5% by Noble Energy to Tamar Petroleum as reported previously (Tamar Petroleum to raise bonds to finance acquisition of Tamar from Noble and Israel capital cycle: Noble sells down Tamar to fund Leviathan).

The export route for the gas to Egypt is still to be decided but could utilise existing infrastructure or a new pipeline. At the end of February Noble Energy, Delek Drilling and Dolphinus were reported to be considering acquiring the Arish-Ashkelon pipeline owned by the East Mediterranean Gas company (otherwise known as the EMG pipeline).

Source: Delek Drilling, February 2018

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