Saudi Arabia - joining the dots
A series of blog entries exploring Saudi Arabia's role in the oil markets with a brief look at the history of the royal family and politics that dictate and influence the Kingdom's oil policy
AIM - Assets In Market
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Iran negotiations - is the end nigh?
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Yemen: The Islamic Chessboard?
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Acquisition Criteria
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Valuation Series
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Wednesday, 23 June 2021
Tuesday, 20 October 2020
TOTAL delivers its first carbon neutral LNG cargo
- Hebei Guyuan Wind Power Project, which aims to reduce emissions from coal-based power generation in northern China
- Kariba REDD+ Forest Protection Project, which aims to protect Zimbabwe's forests
Monday, 23 December 2019
Cameron LNG Liquefaction-Export Facility Begins Production At Train 2
Press release as follows:
Sempra LNG, a subsidiary of Sempra Energy, today announced that Cameron LNG has begun producing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the second liquefaction train of the export facility in Hackberry, Louisiana.
"We are pleased to reach this important milestone in the development of the liquefaction facility," said Lisa Glatch, chief operating officer of Sempra LNG and board chair for Cameron LNG.
Train 2 and Train 3 are expected to commence commercial operations under Cameron LNG's tolling agreements in the first and third quarter of 2020, respectively. The facility's first liquefaction train started commercial operations in August 2019.
Phase 1 of the Cameron LNG export project includes the first three liquefaction trains that will enable the export of approximately 12 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of LNG, or approximately 1.7 billion cubic feet per day.
Cameron LNG is jointly owned by affiliates of Sempra LNG, Total, Mitsui & Co., Ltd., and Japan LNG Investment, LLC, a company jointly owned by Mitsubishi Corporation and Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK). Sempra Energy indirectly owns 50.2% of Cameron LNG.
Sempra Energy is also developing other LNG export projects in North America, including Cameron LNG Phase 2, previously authorized by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which could include up to two additional liquefaction trains and up to two additional LNG storage tanks; Port Arthur LNG in Texas; and Energía Costa Azul (ECA) LNG Phase 1 and Phase 2 in Mexico.
Development of any of these LNG export projects is contingent upon obtaining binding customer commitments, completing the required commercial agreements, securing all necessary permits, obtaining financing, other factors, and reaching final investment decisions. In addition, the ability to successfully complete construction projects, such as the Cameron LNG export project, is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties.
Sempra LNG develops and builds natural gas liquefaction facilities and is pursuing the development of five strategically located LNG projects in North America with a goal of delivering 45 Mtpa of clean natural gas to the largest world markets.
See also:
Cameron LNG Commences Commercial Operations For Train 1 Of Liquefaction-Export Project
Wednesday, 18 December 2019
McDermott, Chiyoda and Zachry Group Announce First Cargo from Freeport LNG Train 2
- First cargo of liquefied natural gas shipped from Train 2 of the Freeport LNG project
- Project team maintains a continuous focus on safety and quality
- Accomplishment is a precursor to substantial completion of Train 2
Below is the full press release from McDermott
HOUSTON, Dec. 18, 2019 McDermott International, Inc. along with its partners, Chiyoda International Corporation and Zachry Group, announced today that the first commissioning cargo of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has been shipped from Train 2 of the Freeport LNG project on Quintana Island in Freeport, Texas. Production of LNG from Train 2 was announced on Dec. 6 and today's announcement of first cargo is a precursor to substantial completion of Train 2.
"The ongoing momentum of this project has accelerated us past multiple accomplishments, including Train 1's introduction of feed gas, first liquid and first cargo. And, we are well on our way toward commercial operation for Train 2," said Mark Coscio, McDermott's Senior Vice President for North, Central and South America. "I commend the project team for delivering these results and getting us closer to substantial completion."
Zachry Group, as the joint venture lead, partnered with McDermott for the Pre-FEED in 2011, followed by FEED works to support the early development stage of the project as a one-stop shop solution provider for Trains 1 and 2. Later Chiyoda joined the joint venture partnership for work related to Train 3. The project scope includes three pre-treatment trains, a liquefaction facility with three trains, a second loading berth and a 165,000 m3 full containment LNG storage tank.
Freeport LNG Trains 2 and 3 remain on schedule with Train 3 initial production of LNG scheduled for Q1 of 2020.
Sunday, 17 November 2019
PGNiG confirms termination of Russian gas imports from end 2022
This will now increase the country's reliant on US LNG (which at this time many US Gulf Coast LNG projects still have to be sanctioned and not guaranteed to come online) and the long awaited Baltic pipeline to take Norwegian gas to Poland.
The move is not a big surprise and is completely consistent with all the messages the Poland has been giving over the past few years including aggressively signing up US LNG volumes.
Poland consumes around 17 bcm of gas annually, more than half of which comes from Gazprom under a long-term contract that expires at the end of 2022. It has used the upcoming expiry as an opportunity to diversify its gas supply ahead of time and has consistently stressed that Gazprom is charging Poland too much for the gas noting that Russia has taken advantage of the historic lack of other sources of gas which is now rapidly changing with the advent of LNG.
Related links:
- Nov 2018: PGNiG shuns Russian gas
- Nov 2018: PGNiG expands footprint in Norway
- Jun 2019: PGNiG acquires Total's 22.2% stake in King Lear
- Jun 2019: Tommeliten Alpha Project passes important decision gate towards production in 2024
Monday, 19 August 2019
Cameron LNG Commences Commercial Operations For Train 1 Of Liquefaction-Export Project
- Cameron LNG to Start Recognizing Revenues from Train 1
- Sempra Energy's Share of Full-Year Run-Rate Earnings from the First Three Trains are Projected to be Between $400 Million and $450 Million Annually
Press release as follows:
Sempra LNG, a Sempra Energy subsidiary, today announced that Cameron LNG's first train of the liquefaction-export project in Hackberry, Loiusiana, has begun commercial operations under Cameron LNG's tolling agreements.
"This is an exciting moment for Cameron LNG and for Sempra Energy," said Carlos Ruiz Sacristan, chairman and CEO of Sempra North American Infrastructure. "Cameron LNG is exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) to customers in the largest world markets, helping to support economic growth in the U.S. and abroad."
Sempra Energy's share of full-year run-rate earnings from the first three trains at Cameron LNG are projected to be between $400 million and $450 million annually when all three trains achieve commercial operations under Cameron LNG's tolling agreements.
"We are proud that Cameron LNG has realized this key milestone with an excellent safety record and zero lost-time incidents," said Lisa Glatch, chief operating officer of Sempra LNG and board chair for Cameron LNG. "We remain focused on safely achieving commercial operations of Train 2 and Train 3."
Train 1 is part of Phase 1 of the Cameron LNG liquefaction-export project which includes a projected export capacity of 12 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of LNG, or approximately 1.7 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas.
Cameron LNG is jointly owned by affiliates of Sempra LNG, Total, Mitsui & Co., Ltd., and Japan LNG Investment, LLC, a company jointly owned by Mitsubishi Corporation and Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK). Sempra Energy indirectly owns 50.2% of Cameron LNG.
Cameron LNG Phase 1 is one of five LNG export projects Sempra Energy is developing in North America: Cameron LNG Phase 2, previously authorized by FERC, encompasses up to two additional liquefaction trains and up to two additional LNG storage tanks, Port Arthur LNG in Texas and Energía Costa Azul LNG Phase 1 and Phase 2 in Mexico.
Development of Sempra Energy's LNG export projects is contingent upon obtaining binding customer commitments, completing the required commercial agreements, securing all necessary permits, obtaining financing, other factors, and reaching final investment decisions. In addition, the ability to successfully complete construction projects, such as the Cameron LNG facility, is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties.
Sempra LNG develops, builds and invests in natural gas liquefaction facilities and is pursuing the development of five strategically located LNG projects in North America with a goal of delivering 45 Mtpa of clean natural gas to the largest world markets, which would make Sempra Energy one of North America's largest developers of LNG-export facilities.
Thursday, 15 August 2019
PNG seeks to renegotiate Papua LNG
PRESS RELEASE
STATE TEAM HEADING OUT TO RE-NEGOTIATE WITH TOTAL
The National Executive Council has authorized a State Negotiating Team (SNT) lead by the Minister for Petroleum, Kerenga Kua, to head off to Singapore to seek to re-negotiate the terms of the Papua LNG Gas Agreement previously signed on 19 April 2019. The SNT left today 15 August for Singapore.
The Papua Gas Agreement was signed by the previous O'Neill led Government inside the period when serious moves were afoot to remove and replace that Government.
The Marape led Government on taking office on 30 May 2019, took the firm view that the Papua Gas Agreement was disadvantageous to the State and the people in certain respects and resolved to seek a renegotiation.
Mr Kua cautions that considering what's at stake, the peoples expectations must be guarded during this period. The negotiations could work out well or even disastrously, but either way, the people must be ready to accept whatever the outcome. As a Nation we have reserved all our rights in law as we move down this path.
Success in the discussions could lead to an early progress of the project. By the same token failure could have very serious ramifications. But failure must not be ruled out and must remain within our contemplation. This is a risk we take as we try to move in the direction of taking PNG back and making it wealthy. The final outcomes will be briefed to the Prime Minister James Marape and the National Executive Council, and the final decision will be taken by the National Executive Council.
Considering our Nations economic circumstances short and long term, no stone must be left unturned at such important junctures. Mr Kua said, it would be futile and worthless to say in the future we should have done this deal differently. That question must be asked and answered now. This is the only diligent approach given how we find ourselves in this spot. The SNT expects to return early next week and report back to the National Executive Council. But Mr Kua says the Prime Minister will be kept informed daily as the negotiations progressed.
Monday, 15 July 2019
European TTF breaks through historical boundaries
S&P has highlighted in its recent webinar that the European TTF price has historically traded within a range but that recent gas pricing dynamics has seen it break out of this range.
TTF has historically been bound by the JKM price as a ceiling (spot LNG price in Asia) and the coal switching price as a floor.
- In a tight gas market, TTF traded closer to the JKM price to incentivise LNG supplies into Europe
- In a loose gas market, TTF traded closer to the coal switching price to incentivise more take uptake of LNG by the European power sector
However in H1 2019, there was a big collapse in both the JKM and TTF price. In fact, there has been a period when JKM fell faster than TTF, making it lose its traditional role as a price ceiling and trading below TTF for a brief period.
Sunday, 16 June 2019
Woodside's Pluto LNG restart delayed
Source: RBC |
In the interim, Woodside will be purchasing cargoes from the market to fulfill its contractual obligations. However Woodside are making a healthy margin of c.USD5/mmbtu with the current lull in Asian spot LNG prices due to subdued summer demand.
Spot LNG prices are c.USD5/mmbtu and Woodside's contractual supplies have achieved c.USD10/mmbtu.
#LNG
Monday, 22 April 2019
Chevron-Anadarko: the overlooked jewel
Area 1 is close to FID with c.9.5mtpa of its 12.88mtpa capacity already signed up. The stepping in of Chevron into Anadarko's shoes adds further weight behind the project.
In February, it was noted that Anadarko had signed a 2.6mtpa LNG SPA with Tokyo Gas/Centrica
joint agreement with implicit destination flexibility which will help broaden Chevron's LNG marketing portfolio, although it is yet to fully launch its own trading portfolio like the Shells and Totals of this world.
The Area 1 LNG joint venture in Mozambique comprises Anadarko, Mitsui, ONGC, ENH (Mozambique NOC), Bharat PetroResources, PTTEP and Oil India. In addition to the Area 1 development, the Area 4 joint venture between Exxon and Eni is on track for sanctioning later in 2019.
Sunday, 7 April 2019
First step in reversion of LNG pricing structures
LNG has historically been priced to an oil price marker. This is because until recently, LNG has been a point-to-point business - LNG was produced in one country and shipped under a 20-30 year contract to a single destination and the LNG tanker would shuffle back-and-forth between the two end points. This underpinned the project financing for construction of liquefaction projects.
LNG prices were then linked to oil as both the LNG producing nations and importers typically had no mature domestic gas market, and hence no price discovery for the gas, but for the importing country, the LNG would have displaced oil for power generation.
Since the genesis of North American LNG, US Gulf Coast exports have been priced to Henry Hub ("HH"), with contracts being HH plus a liquefaction toll. However, buyers are starting to shift to being overweight HH contracts and the last few weeks have seen the first set of contracts away from HH linkage.
On 2nd April, NextDecade signed a 20 year SPA to deliver LNG from its Rio Grande facility with Shell. The pricing is c.75% linked to Brent with the remainder linked to HH, on a FOB basis. First LNG is planned to be in 2023. This was the first-ever LNG contracts out of the US to be indexed to Brent and comes with full destination flexibility.
On 5th April, Shell went one step further by agreeing to sell LNG to a Japanese utility with a linkage to coal prices and is the latest innovation to help buyers seeking to diversify risks. This contract is for 10 years and is the first ever coal-linked contract.
Thursday, 14 March 2019
Understanding Mozambique's fiscal regime (Part I)
Mozambique operates a standard PSC regime with an R-factor based on cumulative income/cumulative costs.
Wednesday, 6 February 2019
Anadarko signs SPAs for Mozambique LNG
These SPAs are conversions of existing Heads to Terms and there could be more SPA announcements on the way. Anadarko has made clear that it expects to debt finance c.USD12 billion of the USD20 billion Phase 1 development and these SPAs will help to support that financing.
The owners of Mozambique LNG Area 1 are:
Separately, the Area 4 LNG JV between ExxonMobil and Eni is also on track for sanctioning later in 2019.
Sunday, 6 January 2019
Valeura: Turkey's new gas supplier
Turkey is structurally short gas, importing gas by pipeline and LNG - LNG regasification capacity is 12bcm/year with cargoes from Algeria, Nigeria and the Middle East. Domestic gas production is therefore long awaited and with Valeura owning the local pipeline network around its licence areas, it is in a good position to start supplying the grid once it is in a position to proceed to development.
The recent gas price hike by BOTAS is useful as well - not only does it protect the gas price in USD terms, but the price increase for local buyers has incentivised such buyers to turn to Valeura gas which has the freedom to sell directly to end users.
The domestic gas prices for power producers are: USD9/mmbtu for power producers, USD6.8/mmbtu for industrial customers and USD5/mmbtu for domestic users. Valeura can make inroads with buyers who currently take gas at the higher end of the pricing range from BOTAS.
Sunday, 30 December 2018
Sponsor completion guarantees in LNG construction financing: Part II
As the world of North American LNG financings continue to evolve, OGInsights explores the use of completion guarantees in construction financings.
In Part II of this two part series, we look at the conditions precedent to project completion which typically need to be satisfied for release of the completion guarantee by lenders.
Construction criteria requires "substantial completion" under the EPC Contract. In addition, operational tests must be satisfactory and includes production of on-specification LNG for a continuous 90-day period.
At completion, maximum stated debt to equity ratio is not to be exceeded - should the ratio be too high, project sponsors are required inject capital to bring the ratio within covenanted levels. Operating account and Debt Service Reserve Accounts are also to be funded to required levels.
From a legal perspective, project agreements and finance documents must be in full force and all governmental authorisations need to be in place, together with certification of environmental and social compliance in line with covenant requirements.
Financing structures continue to evolve to support LNG projects with lenders and sponsors driving the innovation to (i) enable projects and (ii) improve project economics whilst managing the risk that lenders are exposed to.
In Part I, OGInsights covered the use of and reasons for project completion guarantees from a sponsor perspective.
Sponsor completion guarantees in LNG construction financing: Part I
At a high level, the project sponsor guarantees debt service under a guarantee until the construction is complete. To the extent that a project does not reach completion (normally by a certain long-stop date), then the sponsor will be obliged to repay all of the debt under the guarantee.
The provision of a guarantee comes with a number of benefits:
- Lenders are more likely to agree to the equity funding of a project to be back-ended (i.e. construction costs are first funded by debt before equity rather than pro rata). This improves project economics (NPV and IRR).
- Lenders will allow use of pre-project completion cash flows as a source of “equity” funding towards the project, thus replacing “hard” equity contributions. In the absence of a guarantee, lenders typically do not give credit to such uncontracted cash flow and such cash generated is trapped until project completion is achieved (as normally insisted upon by lenders). When a guarantee is in place, lenders are more or less agnostic to whether pre-completion LNG sales are contracted or spot sales and can give credit to such cash flows.
- Lower pre-completion debt costs – reduced commitment fees and margins, reflecting that of the sponsor corporate credit strength (with normal adjustments for pricing and tenor). Pricing could be c.15-30bps cheaper under a construction guarantee structure fr example
Note that in a financing without a completion guarantee, lenders require hedging at financial close of the facility with a substantial amount (typically >60%) under either fixed interest rate or hedged throughout the construction and operations period. A construction guarantee provides more flexibility with regard to hedging during the pre-completion/construction period as the interest rate risk is borne by the sponsor; at project completion, lenders will require fixed rate/hedging in place concurrent with the release of the guarantee.
Financing structures continue to evolve to support LNG projects with lenders and sponsors driving the innovation to (i) enable projects and (ii) improve project economics whilst managing the risk that lenders are exposed to.
In Part II, OGInsights explores the conditions that constitute project completion.
#US #LNG #financing
Wednesday, 19 December 2018
Petronas enables Cheniere Sabine Pass Train 6
Under the deal, Petronas has signed up to 1.1mtpa on a FOB basis for 20 years. As common with east coast LNG contracts, the pricing will be indexed to the monthly Henry Hub price, plus a toll for the liquefaction services plus margin.
Petronas vice president of LNG Marketing & Trading, Ahmad Adly Alias said: "Petronas is pleased to enter into this long-term relationship with Cheniere... With the addition of this new volume, it will enhance Petronas' supply portfolio and further strengthen our position as a reliable global LNG portfolio player."
Sunday, 18 November 2018
PGNiG shuns Russian gas
Poland consumes around 17 bcm of gas annually, more than half of which comes from Gazprom under a long-term contract that expires in 2022. It is seeing the upcoming expiry as the opportunity to diversify its gas supply ahead of time and has consistently stressed that Gazprom is charging Poland too much for the gas noting that Russia has taken advantage of the historic lack of other sources of gas which is now changing with the advent of LNG.
Poland has also vehemently opposed plans by Russia to build a new gas pipeline across the Baltic Sea which is aimed at strengthening its dominant market position into Europe. Instead Poland is looking to sanction the Baltic gas pipeline later this year or beginning of 2019 which will bring gas directly from Norway.
The last month has seen a flurry of newsflow around PGNiG’s activity in sourcing new gas.
In mid-October, PGNiG finalised terms with Venture Global for 2mtpa of LNG. It will buy LNG for 20 years on a FOB basis with supplies commencing under two contracts for 2022 and 2023. The FOB contracts are deemed attractive for PGNiG as it can choose to take the LNG to Poland or use it in its trading portfolio. The terms are not disclosed but understood to be in line with other Gulf Coast LNG contracts being 115% x Henry Hub plus a toll of c.USD2.50/mmbtu. Venture Global is currently developing the Calcasieu Pass LNG terminal on the US Gulf Coast.
PGNiG also farmed-in to the Tommeliten Alpha in the Norwegian North Sea on the upstream side at the end of October. See PGNiG expands footprint in Norway.
#PGNiG #LNG #Russia #Gazprom #VentureGlobal #Cheniere
Friday, 6 July 2018
Karish and Tanin to supply Cyprus
Energean announced earlier this month that it is seeking approval to build a pipeline from its Karish and Tanin fields to the shores of Cyprus from the Cypriot government. The company has already contracted 4.2bcm p.a. from its fields with Israeli buyers and is progressing with further gas supply contracts. The Karish and Tanin project has already been sanctioned, so further supply contracts are not necessary for FID but will strengthen the commercialisation of the project. Energean’s FPSO once online will have capacity to handle c.800mmcfpd.
There are ample of buyers in the Eastern Mediterranean for gas given gas shortages and growing demand in the region. Cyprus in particular is a country keen to secure more gas as it has just put out a tender for LNG import and Floating Storage and Regasification Unit construction.
Reuters noted that Energean will bid for further supply contracts in Israeli power plants with the coal-to-gas switching initiative providing further opportunities for the company.
Friday, 25 May 2018
Anadarko close to Mozambique Area 1 FID and raising USD12 billion debt financing
On 26th April, Anadarko had "in principle" secured sufficient offtake to enable FID of the first phase of Mozambique LNG on Area 1 offshore Mozambique. The huge resource of 75 tcf is planned to be initially developed via two trains with capacity of 12.88 mtpa. In time, this could eventually be expanded to eight trains producing 50 mtpa.
Since the announcement, Anadarko has also made clear that it expects to debt finance ~USD12 billion of the USD20 billion Phase 1 development, mainly from export credit agencies or ECAs.
In March, Anadarko noted that it had secured 5.1 mtpa of offtake and was close to achieving the 8.5 mtpa needed for FID. It is clear that the company is now very close or has surpassed that threshold with remaining efforts on converting heads of terms and discussions into signed SPA contracts.
Offtakers include a range of Chinese, Japanese and other NOC buyers as well as utilities. It has been reported that deals include France’s EdF, Thailand’s state-run PTT and Japanese utility Tohoku Electric.
This is a good piece of news for Mozambique LNG which is finally showing signs of moving ahead and follows finalisation of development concessions with the Mozambique government last year. The Area 1 FID could potentially overtake ExxonMobil's Area 4 project, in which ExxonMobil acquired a 25% from Eni in 2017 (the deal closed in December 2017).
Area 1 ownership stakes Source: Bloomberg, Mozambique LNG |