Map of the day: Ghana near-field tiebacks and upsides

#Ghana #Jubilee #Kosmos #TEN #Tullow

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Kosmos hit by rig contract as dry hole is announced in Suriname

Kosmos could be liable for a share of the onerous contract in Ghana entered into by Tullow Oil, operator of the Jubilee and TEN fields. This could equate to over USD100 million for Kosmos which would wipe out Q2 2018 revenues and earnings since the beginning of the year.

Tullow, on behalf of the field partners entered into a long-term rig contract for the West Leo rig in 2012 for work in the Jubilee and TEN area. In 2016, Tullow declared force majeure under the contract, driven by the border dispute between Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire which forbid any further drilling around the TEN fields until the matter was resolved.

Although the partners had a choice to redeploy the rig at the Jubilee field to undertake further work, it decided not to given issues with the FPSO turret and therefore uncertainty over ongoing development at the field. In an effort to save costs, the partners declared force majeure on the rig contract, which England’s Commercial Court has now ruled was not a valid reason to trigger force majeure. The liability between the TEN and Jubilee partners stands at USD254 million.

This comes on the back of bad news for Kosmos in Suriname where the Anapai-1 well was dry. This extends the dry run of Kosmos and follows the high profile dry well at Requin Tigre (see Kosmos' end of a winning streak with dry well at Requin Tigre).

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Tullow: An African update

Tullow provided a trading update today which gives an overview on progress across a selection of Africa's key fields and developments.

Ghana

• Production in Q1 2018 at Jubilee averaged 63.8 mbopd - there were 19 days of shut-ins throughout the period. An updated shut-in/maintenance schedule plans for three weeks of downtime in May and one week at year end for a total of 47 days. Tullow’s production is insured at c.USD60/bbl, but with Brent to date hovering above USD70/bbl the company is incentivised to minimise down time.

• TEN production performed strongly at 68.6b mbbl/d.

Equatorial Guinea

• Ceiba and Okume in Equatorial Guinea performed "particularly well".

• These fields are under new ownership with Kosmos and Trident Energy's entry in October 2017, acquiring Hess' stake for USD650 million.

Uganda

• FID on Lake Albert is now expected in H2 2018 and the JV continues to await approval of the farm-out to CNOOC and TOTAL.

Kenya

• The appraisal campaign continues to be positive with the project slowly moving forward.

• The FEED contract is expected to be awarded imminently, and trucking for the Early Oil Production Scheme is scheduled to commence in the coming months.

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Aker Energy buys Hess’ Ghana business

Aker Energy, a 50-50 JV between Aker and TRG, has acquired Hess’ 40% interest in Deepwater Tano Cape Three Points, offshore Ghana for USD100 million, with USD25 million payable at close and a further USD75 million payable on PDO approval.

The block lies south of the Jubilee and TEN blocks operated by Tullow and covers over c.2,100km² with a 2C resource estimate of ~550mmbbl. Aker will present a development plan for the block later this year with the first phase targeting c.400mmbbl using a FPSO with a subsea production system. First oil is anticipated in 2021.

The ultra-deepwater block (~2,000-2,500m depth) contains seven discoveries. Hess declared commerciality on four of the fields in March 2016 with Pecan identified as the development hub. However, with the fields straddling the Ghanaian / Cote d'Ivoire border and the ongoing dispute at the time, the partners were unable to apply for a development licence. With the border dispute now settled, the development can now go ahead.

Post transaction, the ownership of the block will be Aker Energy (40%), Lukoil (50%) and GNPC (10%) The development helps Ghana develop its hydrocarbon resources beyond TEN and Jubilee which currently produce c.200mboe/d.

Hess: Deepwater Tano Cape Three Points drilling results (2015)

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Kosmos London listing at risk as company and advisors face potential legal action

Kosmos' secondary listing is at risk as the Saharawi government had strongly condemned the company's move to list on the LSE. The Sahrawi government has threatened the company's licences in the region as well as legal action against Kosmos and its advisors.

The listing would set a precedent for legal proceedings regarding companies operating in the disputed region which could drag out for years to come. The press release by the Saharwi government is below.

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Media release – Communiqué

For immediate release


Saharawi government responds to the proposed listing of Kosmos Energy Ltd. on the London Stock Exchange

Bir Lehlu, Western Sahara (August 16, 2017), The government of the Saharawi Republic (the SADR) notes with concern recently expressed plans of the United States-based petroleum company Kosmos Energy Ltd. to trade in securities in a secondary listing on the London Stock Exchange (the LSE).

“Any effort by Kosmos to raise additional capital, including securities offerings and especially on an exchange which is, for the time being, subject to European law results in clear risks for the company and others financially interested in it. Kosmos continues with seabed petroleum exploration in the coastal waters of occupied Western Sahara with an established basis for legal action against the company and its supporting enterprises”, remarked Emhamed Khadad, the SADR official responsible for natural resources following Kosmos Energy’s recent announcement.

Western Sahara, routinely referred to as Africa’s last colony, has been illegally occupied across much of its inland area and part of its coast since 1975. A commitment by the United Nations organization to deliver a self-determination referendum to the Saharawi people who had been the sole, exclusive occupants of the territory, has been stalled as a result of continuing annexation efforts including resources development purportedly done to generate economic benefits for the territory. Four senior level international and national courts have confirmed an occupying Morocco to be without right or title to the territory. “What this means”, noted Khadad, “is that the rule of international law holds that the occupying state is unable to offer exploration licenses and, even less, hold out any rights to petroleum that could be recovered from the seabed.”

In a December 2016 judgment the Court of Justice of the European Union confirmed that Western Sahara is not a part of Morocco and that the kingdom is unable to exercise treaty authority over the territory in respect of trade matters.

A June 2017 judgment of South Africa’s High Court, concerning a shipment of phosphate rock exported seized after export from Western Sahara, concluded that:

“Morocco has no claim to sovereignty over Western Sahara ... Furthermore, it acquired the territory by force [and] we conclude that howsoever Morocco's presence in Western Sahara may be described, it does not exercise sovereignty over the territory".

(A copy of the decision in Saharawi Arab Democratic Republic and Another v Owner and Charterers of the MV 'NM Cherry Blossom' and Others [2017] ZAECPEHC 31 is available online at: <www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZAECPEHC/2017/31.html>.)

The 2017 and 2016 judgments follow one of the United Kingdom High Court in 2015 which confirmed the territorial status of Western Sahara as not being part of Morocco. A securities listing on the LSE, and related activity, faces the risk of precedent in the United Kingdom and by parallel and separate proceedings, in the Court of Justice of the European Union.

“There is no longer any speculation by the SADR government in its safeguarding of the sovereign resource rights of the Saharawi people that formal legal measures will be resorted to in the face of financial activity to capitalize the taking of our resources, and as against activities as such. International law is clear about such matters and we will continue to employ it in the face of a universally derided, illegal occupation”, observed Khadad.

# # #

For additional information and media contact:

Mr. Kamal Fadel
Saharawi Republic representative for Australia and New Zealand
Senior executive of the SADR Petroleum & Mining Authority
T: + 61 2 92 65 82 58

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Troubles at Jubilee

Jubilee FPSO

On 18^th February, Tullow and Kosmos warned of a potential maintenance issue with the Jubilee FPSO’s turret. At this stage oil production and gas export is continuing as normal but the vessel is now set to be held in position by tugs rather than weathervane. The implications are that the turret may require maintenance that results in unscheduled shut-in and additional costs to rectify the issue. The length of any repair work is not yet known. Jubilee is forecast to contribute nearly half of Tullow’s H1 2016 production, and all of Kosmos’ H1 2016 production.

Following a recent inspection of the turret area of the Jubilee FPSO by SOFEC, the original turret manufacturer, a potential issue was identified with the turret bearing. As a precautionary measure, additional operating procedures to monitor the turret bearing and reduce the degree of rotation of the vessel are being put in place. SOFEC will now undertake further offshore examinations.

New field start-up have been a cause of concern for investors, as a number of recent offshore projects have cost more and taken longer to deliver. However, the news is a reminder of the risks of the focussed nature of E&P portfolios – many of the international E&P companies are dependent upon a single asset, and even the largest companies – including Tullow and Lundin (Edvard Grieg) remain heavily depend on just a couple of assets.

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Tullow in the middle

The fight for oil is nothing new – ownership of oil commands tremendous wealth. Countries fight over the black stuff in wars, and perhaps less barbarically nowadays across a table. Individuals go after it in the hope of getting rich, as evidenced by the large number of independents that have popped up in the past couple of decades.

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