The Kurdish Crush

The Kurdistan producers are in a tough spot brought about by COVID-19 and the collapse in oil prices. Earlier this year, the KRG said it would delay payments in respect of October 2019 to February 2020 deliveries as its cash to pay producers was stuck in a Lebanese bank account with the bank itself facing liquidity issues.

The KRG had struck a deal to pay producers for the backlog later in 2020. Payments in respect sales from March 2020 were not affected and continue to be paid. However at the current low oil prices, payments to producers have slumped.

Tawke: Received USD8.5 million for April deliveries split between partners DNO and Genel. This compares to the March payment of USD34.6 million.

Taq Taq: Received USD1.9 million, down from USD4.6 million in March with Genel's net share of the payment being USD1.1 million.

Shaikan: Gulf Keystone had submitted an invoice to the KRG for a nil amount as the realised price was negative with the Shaikan crude/transportation discount being below Brent.

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Genel grows in Kurdistan

Genel is acquiring interests in the Chevron operated Sarta and Qara Dagh blocks.

Genel will acquire a 30% interest in Sarta and will pay 50% of the field development costs until a specific production target is reached; there will also be a production milestone contingent payment – total spend by Genel is estimated at USD60 million. Chevron will retain a 50% interest and the KRG holds the remaining 2% interest which is carried by the oil companies. Sarta currently has three wells with both Sarta-2 and Sarta-3 having flow tested at c.7,500bopd. The first phase of development will produce from these wells with initial export via trucking.

Qara Dagh is an appraisal licence and Genel will acquire a 40% operated interest through a carry. Chevron will retain 40% interest and the KRG holds the remaining 20% interest. The last well (Qara Dagh-1) was drilled in 2011 which showed complex geology. Genel plans to drill Qara Dagh-2 in 2020.

Genel is slowly rebuilding its profile following a series of disastrous downgrades in Kurdistan – this is now behind the company and it is receiving good cash flow from the Tawke production which it can now reinvest in Kurdistan.

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All Tawke on Peshkabir: Is Tawke production declining?

The Tawke PSC encompasses the Tawke and Peshkabir fields. In 2017, operator DNO commenced production at Peshkabir and in 2018, drilled the Peshkabir-4 and -5 wells taking production up to 30-35mbopd.

However, the limited disclosure by DNO means it is difficult to break out the production on the Tawke PSC between the Tawke and Peshkabir fields. Based on various disclosures between DNO and partner Genel, it appears that production at Tawke is declining, masked by an uptick in Peshkabir.

The Tawke PSC has been producing just c.110mbopd. However closer study reveals that Peshkabir production is now compensating on falling production on the main Tawke field, and hence maintaining the c.110mbopd levels across the PSC.

Although more production history is required, there are now concerns of the problems encountered at TaqTaq by Genel where reserves and production were significantly reduced as water started to be produced from the reservoirs.

#Tawke #Peshkabir #TaqTaq #waterbreakthrough #Kurdistan #DNO #Genel

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Kurdistan E&Ps get paid for January sales

Genel has announced that the Tawke and Taq Taq partners have received payment from the KRG for January oil sales.

• The Tawke partners (DNO 75% and Genel 25%) have received USD56 million and will also share in a USD13 million overriding payment

• The Taq Taq partners partners received USD8 million this month

The continuing payments by the KRG is constructive for sentiment and critical in bringing interest and investment back into the region. Many E&Ps have held off investing in the country with payments being a big concern. While the continuing payments are clearly positive, questions remain on the longer term ability of the KRG to pay producers given loss of crucial income following the referendum with the taking back of the Kirkuk area by Baghdad. For now the KRG is managing, largely with the help of investment/cash injection by Rosneft at the end of large year.

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Kurdistan players receive payment for November exports

Genel Energy and DNO have received payment from the KRG for November oil sales.

DNO received USD54.73 million for crude oil deliveries to the export market from the Tawke. The funds will be shared by DNO and Genel pro-rata to the companies' interests in the licence (75% DNO/25% Genel). Separately, a payment of USD4.7 million was received by DNO, representing 3% of gross Tawke licence revenues during November, as provided for under receivables settlement agreement from August 2017.

The Taq Taq partners have received a gross payment of USD11.05 million, with Genel's share of the payments being USD6.08 million.

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Kurdistan payments and new oil sales agreements

Kurdistan producers receive payment for October sales
Gulf Keystone signs new oil sales agreement with the KRG

DNO has reported a payment of USD54 million for Tawke production from the Kurdistan Regional Government. This is in respect of October oil deliveries. The payment will be shared between the licence partners WHO 75% and Genel 25%. Although there is a lag in payments between production and receipt, this is viewed as normal with October sales invoiced in November and approval by the Government in December with payment the following month. The continued stream of payments demonstrates the importance of oil exports to Kurdistan, especially following the independence referendum last year which threw doubt on the region's ability to carry on managing its finances.

In December, DNO reported production from its two field on the Tawke PSC averaged 110mbopd. Production is expected to climb from these levels as operations ramp up at the Peshkabir field. With higher oil prices and continued payment, DNO could begin to undertake infill drilling on the PSC later this year.

Last week, Gulf Keystone also announced that it had agreed a new PSC-linked oil sales agreement with the Government for its Shaikan crude, reinforcing continued progress in the region around oil company activities. Under the agreement, the KRG agreed to buy crude at Brent less USD22/bbl reflecting a quality discount and transportation costs. Kurdistan crude has historically been marketed following a SOMO (Federal Iraq’s State Organisation for marketing of Oil) formula which provides for a discount of c.USD0.4/bbl of API quality. With Shaikan crude at 18˚ (vs. Brent 38˚) suggesting a USD8/bbl discount plus pipeline export costs to Ceyhan estimated at USD4/bbl, the USD22/bbl discount agreed with the KRG seems to be extremely high. This is likely due to additional discounts on Kurdistan originating crude, where the international buyer community could be thin, resulting from political sensitivities of taking on crude from the disputed region.

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Kurdistan producers get paid for September

DNO and Genel Energy have reported receipt of USD54 million from the KRG for September crude sales from the Tawke licence - shared by DNO (USD40.7 million) and Genel (USD13.6 million) in line with the interests in the licence.

In addition, a payment of USD10.8 million has been received by Genel and DNO, representing 7.5% of gross Tawke licence revenues during October 2017, as provided for under the receivables settlement agreement.

Separately, the Taq Taq field partners have received a payment of $9.7m from the KRG for September oil sales - Genel's net share of the payment is USD5.3 million.

This is the first set of payments that has been made following Kurdistan’s independence election and the choking back of oil exports from the Kirkuk Area, which has limited the KRG’s cash flows. Although a positive, concerns will continue around the continuity of payments.

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Kurdish operators receive July crude export payments

Kurdish operators have announced receipt of oil sales payments from the KRG today towards July exports:
DNO has confirmed that the Tawke partners have received USD39.5 million
Genel has confirmed that the Taq Taq partners have received and USD10.4 million

These payments are in line with recent payments and should be the last under the "old" system (i.e. before the recent change in terms in exchange for settlement fo historical receivables).

Payment for August sales should be made in November - these should increase with DNO's greater share in Tawke and Genel's elimination of the 30% Capacity Building Payment. However, the recent referendum results casts uncertainty on the way forward between the neighbours in the region and therefore the risk to Kurdistan's financial position and therefore payments has increased.

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Kurdistan E&Ps have been paid for May shipments

Kurdistan E&Ps have been paid for May shipments.

The Tawke partners have confirmed receipt of USD39.6 million. The amounts will be shared pro-rata by DNO (55%) and Genel (25% WI) and comprises USD33.2 million towards May deliveries and USD6.4 million towards past receivables.

The Taq Taq partners have received USD12.2 million and will be shared pro-rata by Genel (44% WI) and Addax (36% WI). The payment comprises USD11.1 million towards May deliveries and USD1.2 million towards past receivables.

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Turkey-Genel gas update

In 2013, Turkey established Turkish Energy Company (“TEC”) as a vehicle to enter into partnerships with IOCs for dealings in Kurdistan. TEC was a state-backed entity and an offshoot of Turkish Petroleum International Company (“TPIC”).

Earlier this year TEC was placed under BOTAS, the state-owned oil and gas pipelines and trading company, with gas coming back to one of the top items on the agenda of the Turkish government. It is now commanding attention at the highest levels of government, driven by a strong will to secure Kurdish gas to strengthen its hand against Russia.

To this end, TEC and Genel have been in continuing dialogue over the way forward for the Miran and Bina Bawi gas fields, with the talks intensifying in recent months. For Turkey, the interest in the project is strategic and necessary. For Genel, the securing of Turkey as a guaranteed long term offtaker is important in helping in reviving the company’s fortunes following a succession of problems including reserve write downs and production underperformance.This has been compounded by a series of management changes with Tony Hayward and Nat Rothschild leaving the board in June 2017 and the departure of Ben Monaghan on 30 June 2017.

Genel is now craving some stability with focus turning to delivery of the gas project which will take a few years to develop. In the meantime, managing production at Taq Taq remains a near term priority.

Related recent entries:

• Kurdistan independence referendum
• Kurdistan: The Rosneft connection

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Downgrade coming at Taq Taq?

Genel released a disappointing production update this morning with Q3 2016 working interest production of 53.1mbopd. For the quarter, Taq Taq and Tawke gross production averaged 58.6mbopd and 109.2mbopd respectively. Taq Taq’s production compares with 130mbopd a year ago.

A workover campaign on Taq Taq is ongoing with TT-27x and TT-07z completed in Q3 2016; a third side track, TT-16y, is currently underway.

As a result of the recent performance, FY16 production is expected to be at the bottom end of the 53-60mbopd guidance range and revenue will also be at the lower end of USD90-110 million guidance. There is increasing concern around a further reserves downgrade at Taq Taq and DNO’s Tawke field is the more prudent investment for now.

Separately, management continues to talk positively about the gas resources, but the development of Miran and Bina Bawi to look challenging in the current environment.

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Further payments by the KRG

DNO and Genel Energy announced on 22 March that the Tawke and Taq Taq participants have been paid by the Kurdistan Regional Government (“KRG”) for oil sales during February. News of another month of payment should help boost sentiment.

Given that the export pipeline was out of service during the second half of February, sales at Taq Taq and Tawke were down materially month-on-month at 62,091bopd and 73,124bopd, respectively. Sales into the local market from both fields were, however, invoiced at the wellhead export netback price, in line with the payment mechanism announced by the KRG on 1 February; this process helped limit the month-on-month reduction in revenues. Flows into the export pipeline resumed on 11 March.

Genel, as operator of Taq Taq received USD12.6 million for oil exports, down from January’s USD16.3million. An additional USD2.5 million payment has been made towards recovery of the receivable, down from USD3.2 million.

DNO, as operator of Tawke has reported receipt of USD11.29 million for exports, down from USD17.99 million in January. An additional USD2.17 million has been paid for past deliveries, down from USD3.46 million in January.

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KRG switches to PSC terms to conserve cash outflows to IOCs

Kurdistan exports and payments to IOCs remain unpredictable with the situation subject to change on a daily basis. The Kurdistan Regional Government’s (“KRG”) monthly export report and news flow from the E&Ps gives a glimmer into the dynamics of operating in and getting paid in Kurdistan.

On 4^th February, the KRG published its January 2016 monthly export report – the KRG exported 602mbbl/d through the Kurdistan pipeline network to the port of Ceyhan in Turkey; this is down from 644mbbl/d in December and the Q4 2015 average of 648mbbl/d. The export line was down for just one day last month. Fields operated by the KRG contributed 452mbbl/d (Q4 2015 average was 476mbbl/d), while the North Oil Company’s fields contributed 150mbbl/d (Q4 2015 172mbbl/d).

Today, Genel announced that the Taq Taq field partners have received a gross payment of USD16.3 million from the KRG for oil exported through the main export pipeline; this is down on the USD30 million paid in recent months, as the KRG employs the terms of the Kurdistan’s Production Sharing Contracts (“PSC”) for the first time, rather than an ad hoc payment system. Genel's share of the gross Taq Taq payment fell to USD9 million, from USD16.5 million. The impact of the shortfall has been softened somewhat by the payment of an additional USD3.2 million (USD1.8 million net to Genel) to cover past receivables.

The change to the PSC was clearly intended to reduce the KRG’s cash outflows, so the payment reduction should not be a surprise. The silver-lining is that payments are now linked to the oil price and the PSC provides greater certainty on asset valuations and the merits of increasing spending to help stabilise and potentially grow oil production. However the payment made in January reflects comprise of a number of components: crude quality adjustment, deduction of transportation charges, handling costs as well as the PSC terms, and in general, greater clarity on these variables will need to be disclosed in order to better forecast future cash flows.

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Kurdistan producers receive fourth consecutive payment from the KRG

Tawke processing facilities
Source: KRG

On 6^th January, DNO and Genel announced that partners of the DNO-operated Tawke field have received a gross payment of USD30 million from the Kurdistan Regional Government for oil exported through the Kurdistan Region of Iraq-Turkey pipeline. This represents the fourth export payment by the KRG since payments recommenced in September.

On 5^th January, Genel also confirmed that the Taq Taq field partners had received a gross payment of USD30 million from the KRG for oil exported through the Kurdistan Region of Iraq-Turkey pipeline with Genel’s share of the payment being USD16.5 million.

It is interesting to note that payments to the oil companies have remained flat (at USD75 million per month) during the past four months, despite a collapse in the oil price from c.USD50/bbl at the start of September to c.USD36/bbl at the end of December 2015. This means that the international oil companies' share of Kurdistan's oil revenues is slowly creeping up.

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