Saudi Arabia - joining the dots

A series of blog entries exploring Saudi Arabia's role in the oil markets with a brief look at the history of the royal family and politics that dictate and influence the Kingdom's oil policy

AIM - Assets In Market

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Iran negotiations - is the end nigh?

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Yemen: The Islamic Chessboard?

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Acquisition Criteria

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Valuation Series

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Showing posts with label Venezuela. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Venezuela. Show all posts

Wednesday, 4 March 2020

Forcing regime change in Venezuela

US attempts to force regime change in Venezuela continues despite the huge humanitarian crisis it is causing.

The sanctions on the Maduro government have been absolutely crippling with oil output down from 2.5mmbbl/d down to sub-1mmbbl/d and falling - due to inability to invest to maintain production, striking PDVSA staff with pay uncertainty, inexperienced generals taking over and running over PDVSA as well and shrinking importer base for its crude. On this note, the situation is worsened with the US' latest sanctions of Russian Rosneft which was a key buyer of Venezuelab crude on 18th February. In the meantime, Rosneft has continued purchases from a PDVSA subsidiary under US granted waivers which expire in April 2020.

In 2019 the IMF forecasts the country's GDP fell by 35% and inflation increased by 200,000%. Clutching at straws, President Maduro has launched a new Bolivar currency and cryptocurrency called Petro although many doubt this will solve anything apart from being smoke and mirrors.

The longer the crisis continues, the stronger the support for the topple of Maduro, paving the way for the internationally-backed pro-democratic Juan Guaido to come to power.