Aphrodite gas: lover's quarrel

Aphrodite is owned by Noble (35% operator), Delek Drilling (30%) and Shell (35%). The field lies in Block 12, offshore Cyprus and was discovered in 2011. BG Group farmed into 35% from Noble Energy in November 2015 for USD165 million following declaration that the field was commercial in June 2015.

As reported earlier, Shell intends to use Aphrodite gas to supply ELNG, but this has now faced a new hurdle. Cyprus and Israel are arguing over the extension of the Aphrodite structure into Israeli waters. Given the importance of the gas, the regional governments are keen to avoid the dispute delaying the commercialisation of the field.

Despite its vicinity to and significantly earlier discovery than Zohr (2015), Aphrodite remains uncommercialised. In fact, its commercialisation was previously called into question given the resource was too small to justify export infrastructure. This is a recurring theme within East Med gas with export route remaining a key issue. Egyptian gas discoveries are lucky enough to have a short gas domestic market and the option to export via LNG.

Israeli gas has taken longer to get off the ground, but has reached sufficient scale to export into the region by pipeline beyond supplying its own domestic market.

Cypriot gas, and indeed Lebanon, face the challenge of a small domestic market and lack of gas export infrastructure. Cyprus has toyed with the idea of developing its own LNG terminal but currently lacks the scale of reserves required to do so.

It makes sense for Aphrodite to supply ELNG at Idku. Shell has ownership in both Aphrodite and ELNG and a direct pipeline to the plant would allow it to bypass the Egyptian gas grid. Furthermore, a direct pipeline could galvanise further exploration and development activity along the route.

ELNG is largely supplied by the West Delta Deep fields and has been operating at minimal levels since gas was diverted to the domestic grid in 2013. In 2017, it shipped 0.78 million tonnes in cargoes (vs. capacity of 7.2 mmtpa). This has meant the plant remains operational and ready to ramp up once gas is supplied. In contrast, the Damietta LNG plant has been idled and would require significant work to restart operations.

The partners of Aphrodite are now finalising the field development plan with the Cypriot government. The plan initially involves five wells with a combined output of 800mmcf/d and developed using a floating platform. Cost estimates are estimated at USD2.5 - 3.5 billion excluding the cost of any pipeline to ELNG at Idku.

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Delek and Noble seeking to acquire gas pipeline to Egypt

Following Noble and Delek’s agreement to sell 64bcm of gas into Egypt via Egyptian intermediary Dolphinus Holdings, the two upstream companies have commenced discussions to acquire EMG, the business which owns the Arish-Ashkelon pipeline (otherwise known as the EMG pipeline).

This is one of the routes contemplated by Noble and Delek as part of plans to export gas into the wider East Med and Europe. The 64bcm of gas will be sourced from Tamar and Leviathan, the latter scheduled to deliver first gas at the end of 2019. Both fields are operated by Noble Energy.

Source: Delek, February 2018

The EMG pipeline used to export gas from Egypt to Israel under a deal agreed in 2008. However post the Arab Spring, the pipeline was increasingly the target of militant attacks and together with an emerging gas supply shortage, gas exports to Israel were terminated altogether. A lawsuit is continuing in the background between Egypt, Israel and EMG around the termination of gas exports.

In the meantime, it is understood that technical studies have begun to reverse the flow of the system for sending Israeli gas to Egypt.

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Dolphinus and the wider Egyptian gas hub story

Dolphinus was established with the main aim of becoming a “reliable and stable supplier of gas to major industrial gas distributors and consumers in Egypt”. It was co-founded by prominent Egyptian entrepreneurs Dr. Alaa Arafa, Eng. Khaled Abu Bakr and Mohamed Khalifa.

As a first step in its strategy, Dolphinus entered into a 64bcm, 10 year gas supply contract with Noble Energy and Delek Drilling for their gas in Israel (see Israel's Leviathan and Tamar gas to be sold into Egypt).

This is a welcome move for Egypt as Dolphinus can act as “middleman” for sourcing Israeli gas into Egypt. The two countries are still embroiled in a lawsuit over compensation to Israel when Egypt stopped supplying gas to the former in 2014 under a long term contract after Egypt ran into domestic supply shortages. Dolphinus therefore acts as a politically clean way to buy gas from Israel.

Dolphinus sees Egypt becoming a regional gas hub and looks to take part in that story by playing to the as import side of the story. Egypt has the right ingredients to be a hub. The country has a long history with gas, being an exporter for decades up until 2014 before needing to import gas in the last few years. This means the country has much of the infrastructure in place from domestic gas grids, cross-border pipelines, LNG facilities and access to FSRU capabilities.

While Egypt remains short gas, it is on the verge of being able to export again given the recent large discoveries in the offshore and also the emerging ability to re-export gas sourced from another country. This introduces the concept of Egypt being a gas trader, albeit currently at very early stages.

The existence of LNG export facilities means that the country has the ability (as it did before) to ship gas to a wide variety of destinations and is not reliant on pipeline infrastructure to penetrate markets. Being on the doorstep of the East Med allows Egypt to tap abundant sources of gas and the developing gas import dynamics means that the country is no longer tied to domestic supply sources to feed LNG – the issue back in 2014 when domestic demand outstripped supply and led to LNG facilities to call force majeure and stop exports.

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Israel's Leviathan and Tamar gas to be sold into Egypt

Noble Energy and Delek Drilling announced plans in February to export gas to Egypt. The plan is to supply 64bcm over a 10 year period to Egypt’s Dolphinus Holdings – 32bcm from Leviathan and 32bcm from Tamar.

Each field is contracted up to 3.5bcm p.a. or c.350mmcfpd and will bring the partners USD15 billion over the life of the supply contract. The contracted price and terms are in line with other supply contracts from these fields which is based on a Brent linked formula.

Source: Delek Drilling, February 2018

Leviathan is owned by Delek Drilling (45.34%), Noble Energy (39.66% operator), Ratio Oil Exploration (15%). The field is on track to target first gas by end 2019 and with the extra 350mmcfpd to Dolphinus brings contracted sales close to 900mmcfpd, just below the 1bcfpd target. The first phase of the field is planned to deliver 1.2bcfpd from four wells.

Source: Noble Energy, November 2017 with 525mmcfpd firm GSPAs at the time

Tamar is owned by Isramco Negev (28.75%), Noble Energy (25% operator), Delek Drilling (22%), Tamar Petroleum (16.75%), Dor Gas (4%) and Everest Infrastructures (3.5%) – this reflects the ownership post the recent sale of 7.5% by Noble Energy to Tamar Petroleum as reported previously (Tamar Petroleum to raise bonds to finance acquisition of Tamar from Noble and Israel capital cycle: Noble sells down Tamar to fund Leviathan).

The export route for the gas to Egypt is still to be decided but could utilise existing infrastructure or a new pipeline. At the end of February Noble Energy, Delek Drilling and Dolphinus were reported to be considering acquiring the Arish-Ashkelon pipeline owned by the East Mediterranean Gas company (otherwise known as the EMG pipeline).

Source: Delek Drilling, February 2018

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Tamar Petroleum to raise bonds to finance acquisition of Tamar from Noble

As reported previously, Tamar Petroleum is acquiring a 7.5% stake in the Tamar field from Noble Energy for USD800 million. The consideration will be paid USD560 million in cash with the remainder in Tamar Petroleum shares.

To help finance the transaction, Tamar Petroleum is planning to raise USD 625million (ILS 2.178bn) through the sale of bonds, Ha'aretz. reported. The net proceeds are expected to be c.USD605 million, the excess would be put in a special fund for a potential bond buyback, or early repayment.

Tamar Petroleum's holding in the field will increase to 16.75% following the deal, whereas Noble will be left with a 25% stake. This deal builds on Tamar's acqusition of 9.25% in the field from Delek Group for USD980 million in 2017.

Tamar Petroleum was a wholly owned subsidiary of Delek Drilling that was established to acquire the initial 9.25% stake in Tamar from Delek. The subsidiary was listed on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange in 2017, raising USD330 million as part of the IPO. At the same time, it also raised USD650 million on the bond markets to fund the acquisition.

The move by Delek Drilling was the first in a series of steps to sell its entire 31.25% stake in the Tamar field by 2021 as mandated by the government due to competition concerns.

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Israel capital cycle: Noble sells down Tamar to fund Leviathan

Noble Energy is divesting 7.5% of its 32.5% interest in the Tamar field for USD800 million. This will reduce Noble’s interest to 25% as required by the Israeli government’s competition requirements. The buyer is Tamar Petroleum who will pay for the acquisition with USD560 million in cash and 38.5 million shares in Tamar Petroleum. The divested interest represents 62mmcfpd of production in 2017 and reserves of 500bcfe.

Noble intends to sell-down the share portion of the consideration over the next few years. After capital gains tax on the USD800 million, Noble will net around USD615 million which it will use to help cover upcoming development expenditure on the giant Leviathan development. The spend in 2018, net to Noble, is USD600 million in 2018 and USD425 million in 2019.

Noble continues to be a major player in the Eastern Mediterranean and advances its contracting efforts on Leviathan where it has signed up 525mmcfpd is gas sales contracts with another 1,100mmcfpd being negotiated.

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