PGNiG confirms termination of Russian gas imports from end 2022

Poland's PGNiG has notified Gazprom of its intention to terminate imports of Russian pipeline gas from the end of 2022.


This will now increase the country's reliant on US LNG (which at this time many US Gulf Coast LNG projects still have to be sanctioned and not guaranteed to come online) and the long awaited Baltic pipeline to take Norwegian gas to Poland.


The move is not a big surprise and is completely consistent with all the messages the Poland has been giving over the past few years including aggressively signing up US LNG volumes.


Poland consumes around 17 bcm of gas annually, more than half of which comes from Gazprom under a long-term contract that expires at the end of 2022. It has used the upcoming expiry as an opportunity to diversify its gas supply ahead of time and has consistently stressed that Gazprom is charging Poland too much for the gas noting that Russia has taken advantage of the historic lack of other sources of gas which is now rapidly changing with the advent of LNG.


Related links:

• Nov 2018: PGNiG shuns Russian gas
• Nov 2018: PGNiG expands footprint in Norway
• Jun 2019: PGNiG acquires Total's 22.2% stake in King Lear
• Jun 2019: Tommeliten Alpha Project passes important decision gate towards production in 2024

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PGNiG acquires Total's 22.2% stake in King Lear

Total has sold its 22.2% stake in King Lear to PGNiG. This follows AkerBP's acquisition of Equinor's 77.8% stake in the field in October 2018 for USD250 million.

In October 2018, AkerBP noted that King Lear is one of the largest undeveloped discoveries in Norway and that it planned to develope the field as a satellite to Ula. Ula is operated by AkerBP (80% with DNO as 20% partner) and the tie-back will improve capacity utilisation at the Ula facilities. Importantly, King Lear will also provide signifcant gas volumes for injection into the Ula field for increased oil recovery. Net recoverable resources at King Lear is estimated at c.100mmboe and is gas weighted.

PGNiG notes that the development of the field is planned to commence in 2021 with first production in 2025.

The King Lear development has stalled since its initial discovery as it was originally expected to be part of the Greater Ekofisk Area project which would have seen King Leat, Tommeliten Alpha and Tor tie back to Ekofisk. However gas processing capacity constraints at Ekofisk meant the project was not sanctioned.

With PGNiG entry into King Lear, and also ownership of Tommeliten Alpha (acquired from Equinor in October 2018) could see the latter now being routed to King Lear.

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PGNiG expands footprint in Norway

On 18^th October PGNiG announced that it had agreed to acquire Equinor's interest in the Tommeliten Alpha gas and condensate field in the Norwegian North Sea. This continues PGNiG's strategy of diversifying its gas supply away from Russia.

PGNiG has always had an interest in Norwegian gas seeing it as as logical and accessible source of gas for Poland. As the long term Russian gas supply contracts come to expiry, PGNiG is making bold moves to secure new sources of gas and LNG. See PGNiG shuns Russian gas.

The operator of the discovery is ConocoPhilips (28.26%), and current partners are Total (20.23%), Eni Norge (9.13%) and Equinor (42.38%) which will sell its entire working interest to PGNiG. The agreed price for Equinor's stake was USD220 million at 1 January 2018 effective date.

The Tommeliten Alpha discovery is located in the vicinity of large, existing fields, most notably the giant Ekofisk field. According to current plans, production is expected to commence in 2024, and the development concept assumes a subsea tie-back to the existing infrastructure on Ekofisk.

Tommeliten Alpha is a gas and condensate field with estimated recoverable resources of 52 mmboe (net to PGNiG's 42.38%). PGNiG believes in an upside potential in the field reserves as well as significant exploration upside in the area.

The field was originally planned to start production in 2019, but development plans were shelved by operator ConocoPhillips in 2016 due to low oil prices.

#PGNiG #NorthSea #TommelitenAlpha # Equinor #Conoco

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PGNiG shuns Russian gas

PGNiG is increasingly boldening its signals on shunning Russian gas as it turns to the west. The Polish state has historically been dependent on gas imports from its eastern neighbour but is looking to loosen its reliance to the communist state.

Poland consumes around 17 bcm of gas annually, more than half of which comes from Gazprom under a long-term contract that expires in 2022. It is seeing the upcoming expiry as the opportunity to diversify its gas supply ahead of time and has consistently stressed that Gazprom is charging Poland too much for the gas noting that Russia has taken advantage of the historic lack of other sources of gas which is now changing with the advent of LNG.

Poland has also vehemently opposed plans by Russia to build a new gas pipeline across the Baltic Sea which is aimed at strengthening its dominant market position into Europe. Instead Poland is looking to sanction the Baltic gas pipeline later this year or beginning of 2019 which will bring gas directly from Norway.

The last month has seen a flurry of newsflow around PGNiG’s activity in sourcing new gas.

In mid-October, PGNiG finalised terms with Venture Global for 2mtpa of LNG. It will buy LNG for 20 years on a FOB basis with supplies commencing under two contracts for 2022 and 2023. The FOB contracts are deemed attractive for PGNiG as it can choose to take the LNG to Poland or use it in its trading portfolio. The terms are not disclosed but understood to be in line with other Gulf Coast LNG contracts being 115% x Henry Hub plus a toll of c.USD2.50/mmbtu. Venture Global is currently developing the Calcasieu Pass LNG terminal on the US Gulf Coast.

This has been followed by a 24 year LNG deal with Cheniere Energy at the beginning of November. PGNiG has signed up a 1.45mtpa deal with LNG supplied by Cheniere’s Sabine Pass, Louisiana and Corpus Cristi, Texas liquefaction plants. The contract is for delivery on a DES basis directly to the 5Bcm/year Swinoujscie terminal in Poland. Poland is also looking to expand the import terminal to 7.5Bcm/year in part of the countries grander ambitions to become a LNG and gas trading hub.

PGNiG also farmed-in to the Tommeliten Alpha in the Norwegian North Sea on the upstream side at the end of October. See PGNiG expands footprint in Norway.

#PGNiG #LNG #Russia #Gazprom #VentureGlobal #Cheniere

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