Kenya goes alone with first oil targeting 2021 - plays catch-up with Uganda

Kenya was left at the pipeline “altar” in 2016 when Uganda decided to export its crude via a Tanzanian pipeline instead. The years of work around a joint Ugandan-Kenyan pipeline went to waste as the two countries could not agree on the development with security as well as political factors hindering co-operation between the two countries. Kenyan oil discoveries in the Lokichar Basin had been left in limbo with no export plan in sight. However,...

Read More

Africa Oil - slowly progressing

Africa Oil published its 2016 financials last night - the USD850 million company (market capitalisation) ended the year with cash-in-hand of USD463 million. The release included few updates – G&A was down c.50% year-on-year as a result of lower equity-based payments and the impact of the weak Canadian dollar on head office salaries, and the company reported a small USD6.5 million write off on its Ethiopian assets. Attention remains focused on the Lokichar Basin development - preparations for FEED are underway, the pipeline Joint Development...

Read More

Kenya First Oil

On 9th October, a government spokesperson said that President Kenyatta had held meetings with the Lokichar Basin oil companies (Tullow, Africa Oil, Maersk) on the Early Oil Pilot Scheme (“EOPS”). The EOPS has already received FID and will produce 2,000bbl/d, starting in June 2017. The oil will be trucked from the Lokichar Basin to Mombasa. The EOPS will allow the partners to establish a production history, providing valuable dynamic reservoir...

Read More

Why Kenyan crude will be exported and not domestically refined

Mombasa refinerySource: http://mygov.go.ke/national-treasury-sets-aside-funds-to-buy-essar-stake-in-refinery/ Kenya currently has no crude oil production and relies solely on imports to feed the domestic refinery in Mombasa. Aside from feedstock for the refinery, there is no other demand for crude oil in Kenya. In 2012, domestic consumption of refined products was 73mbbl/d – this was satisfied by 20mbbl/d of domestic production from the...

Read More

Lundin stops funding Africa Oil

Africa Oil’s history dates back to 1983, when it was founded as Canmex Minerals with funding from the Lundin family. The company was officially renamed to Africa Oil in June 2009 to reflect its strategic and geographic focus. Since 2009, the company went through a series of acquisitions to consolidate its position in Kenya and Ethiopia...

Read More

Pricing Kenyan crude

The price a crude fetches is typically against a benchmark such as Brent, WTI or Urals and the underlying crude marketing agreement will detail the calculation of the premium or discount to such a benchmark as well as other adjustments. As Kenyan crude has never been marketed before, there is no established pricing for Lokichar crude – however, a hypothetical value can be calculated. One of the key determinants of crude pricing is crude quality...

Read More

Battle of the routes

Significant resources have been discovered in East Africa with 1.7bnbbl lying in Uganda and 600mmbbl in Kenya. The key barrier to monetising the vast amounts of oil is an export pipeline. In 2010, when Tullow acquired Heritage’s acreage, first oil was envisaged for 2016. Over the last five years, this timing has slowly crept back with estimates now pushed back to late-2019 despite government PR continuing to promote first oil in 2016-17. There...

Read More

Sub-Saharan Africa - newsflow update

Gabon Deepwater - Leopard discovery Leopard-1 was drilled on licence BCD10 Shell 75%*, CNOOC 25% Encountered substantial gas column with 200m net gas pay Further appraisal required FLNG? 3-4 tcf may be required, although economics of sales into Europe are marginal Government is also keen to grow domestic gas market Congo Offshore - Eni/NewAge - follow up discovery in Marine XII Minsala Marine discovery Estimated 1bnboe in place, of which...

Read More