US Gulf Coast claims strategic trading hub title

The US Gulf Coast has inadvertently become a strategic trading hub for global oil flows in the rapidly evolving oil market marked by North American short cycle shale production. The region is blessed with access to premium upstream acreage linked by a strong network of infrastructure and ports which have been converted from import to import/export terminals following the lifting of the crude export ban two years ago.

Source: EIA

The PADD 3 region also houses close to 60 refiners with c.10 mbopd of complex refining capacity which can cater to a wide range of product slate demands. This has been increasing important as refining centres in Latin and South Americas have become challenged in recent years with the collapse in oil price leaving them financially imperilled. Mexican refineries are currently running at a utilisation rate of below 50% and Venezuela is on the verge of collapse.

The US has stepped up as the de-facto refiner – importing a range of blends from across the world and exporting refined products globally. Crude oil once destined for Europe for refining has also been making its way to the US with the closure of troubled refineries in Europe which started long before the recent oil price crash.

Over the last decade, the US has gone from a net refined products importer to the largest exported in the world. In this time period, the world has become more reliant on the US as the US itself has become more energy independent. At the moment, over half of refined product exports are destined for Latin America, displacing the lost refining capacity there. Asia is also a growing market for US crude and refined products with the Gulf Coast having easy access to Asia through the Panama Canal.

Read More

Why Kenyan crude will be exported and not domestically refined

Mombasa refinery
Source: http://mygov.go.ke/national-treasury-sets-aside-funds-to-buy-essar-stake-in-refinery/

Kenya currently has no crude oil production and relies solely on imports to feed the domestic refinery in Mombasa. Aside from feedstock for the refinery, there is no other demand for crude oil in Kenya.

In 2012, domestic consumption of refined products was 73mbbl/d – this was satisfied by 20mbbl/d of domestic production from the refinery and 53mbbl/d of imports. The shortfall in domestic production has been met by imports for many years and this has steadily grown from 22mbbl/d in 2005 along with the increasing demand for refined products. The shortfall suggests that there is scope to increase throughput of the refinery and reduce the level of imports.

Kenya Refined Products Production and Consumption
Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Kenya Petroleum Refineries Limited, OGInsights

The refinery has a design capacity of 80mbbl/d, but has continually operated at c.40% of capacity. This low utilisation is due to a number of reasons including regular utility supply outages, limitation on size of cargoes it can accommodate, low profitability (some batches of processing are loss making), limitation on product slate and general inefficiency of the refinery. The refinery has a reformer and a catalytic hydro-treater, but no upgrading units; the refinery’s two complexes were commissioned in 1963 and 1974 with minimal investment since. The profitability of the refinery was further hit in 2013 when the incoming government removed the price protection previously provided to the refinery, making it uncompetitive relative to refined product imports.

The refinery’s current configuration is designed to handle heavy crude grades from the Middle East. In 2012, a refinery upgrade project was considered by the then owners (50% Essar Energy, 50% Government of Kenya). The plans included changing the configuration to handle lighter crudes and would incorporate the ability to process Lokichar crude. However, the $1.5bn cost of the upgrade was deemed to be too expensive and uneconomic; as a result the upgrade was abandoned, following which, Essar Energy decided to exit the joint venture. In December 2014, Essar Energy sold its 50% interest in the refinery to the Government of Kenya.

The refinery has been mothballed since mid-2013 and now acts as a storage facility for imported refined products. All demand for refined products are now met by imports. There are currently no plans to restart the refinery, and without further investment, it is unlikely the refinery would be able to operate profitably. Until there is a plan and willing financing to upgrade the refinery, the destination for Lokichar crude is most likely to be the export market - in its current state, the refinery configuration is not designed to process Lokichar crude.

In a scenario where the refinery was upgraded and being wholly fed by Lokichar crude, then feedstock requirements could reach c.100mbbl/d by 2020 in order to fully meet forecast domestic demand for refined products (96mbbl/d estimate by Kenya Petroleum Refineries Limited). However, this scenario is deemed to be highly unlikely in the foreseeable future.

Read More