FAR from a solution

FAR has defaulted on its most recent development cash call on Phase 1 of the Sangomar/SNE development.

Under the Sangomar Joint Operating Agreement, any party that defaults on its financial obligations and cash calls have a six month rectification period, during which time it will pay LIBOR+2% on the unpaid amounts. FAR will also not be able to participate in any of the operating committee meetings or participate in any voting on JV issues.

If FAR fails to rectify on its default, it will forfeit its entire interest in Sangomar with no compensation - i.e. FAR will lose the asset and the value of it will be zero.

In the meantime, FAR is investigating a sale of a stake and will have a race against time to find a solution.

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SNE partners buy FPSO

Cairn and FAR have announced a material increase in the capex for the SNE development from USD2.2 billion to USD3.7 billion (plus USD500 million contingency) for Phase 1. This has been driven by the partners' decision to buy an FPSO rather than lease it. This does however bring the opex down, estimated form c.USD14/boe to c.USD11/boe.

FID is expected to be taken at the end of 2019 with first oil forecast for late 2022. The development will be phased with Phase 1 targeting 230mmbbl and production of 100mbopd. Phase 2 will target a further 253mmbbl oil.

This is a particularly tough week for Cairn having earlier announced a dry hole in Mexico at Alom-1 and the Indian arbitration award delayed into summer 2020, while now also being exposed to larger capex on SNE.

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SNE partners progress to FEED for Phase 1 of the development

The SNE JV offshore Senegal (Cairn 40%, Woodside 35%, FAR 15%, Petrosen 10%) has entered FEED for Phase 1 of the SNE development. The engineering contract has been awarded to the Subsea Integration Alliance (OneSubsea, Schlumberger and Subsea 7).

First oil is being targeted for 2022 with an initial production rate of c.100mbopd. The exploitation plan had previously identified a total development of 500mmbbl of oil over a multi-phase development with the Phase 1 FEED targeting 230mmbbl from the base, thicker sand package.

Woodside noted that the Senegalese Minister of Petroleum and Energies has approved Woodside’s transition to operator of the RSSD JV (Rufisque, Sangomar and Sangomar Deep) and the SNE development. Separately, FAR continues its commercial arbitration around the initial deal between Conoco and Woodside.

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Second chance for Petronas in West Africa

Following the recent disappointment at the Samo-1 well in The Gambia, Petronas has another chance in West Africa on the other side of the border in Senegal. Petronas is growing its West African exploration portfolio and is continuing its search for more acreage.

In August Petronas had farmed-in to 30% of Total's Rufisque Offshore Profond block, marking its entry into Senegal. Total retains 60% in the block with Société Nationale des Pétroles du Sénégal (Petrosen) holding the remaining 10%.

The block lies immediately to east to the Sangomar Deep block which contains the Cairn/Woodside/FAR SNE and FAN fields. The Rufisque Offshore Profond block covers 10,357km² , with a water depth ranging from 100m to 3000m.

The partners now plan on the interpretation of the acquired 3D seismic data with exploration drilling activities planned to commence in 2019.

Related links:

• The Gambia's Samo-1 well disappoints
• FAR goes further with another industry partner

#Petronas #Samo #FAR #Senegal #Gambia #Total #SNE #FAN

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The Gambia's Samo-1 well disappoints

The JV in offshore Blocks A2/A5 has announced a disappointing result on the Samo-1 well. The JV, which comprises FAR Limited 40%, Petronas 40% and Erin Energy 20%, has hit water.

FAR Limited had prospective P50 resource estimates of 825mmbbl (gross unrisked) with a 55% geological chance of success. Wireline logs indicate that the target was water bearing. The Government of Gambia has now granted a six month extension to end of June 2019 to enable a thorough evaluation of the Samo-1 well result.

The blocks contain numerous other prospects including Saloo and Bambo for follow-up exploration. The findings from Samo-1 will guide next steps.

In the meantime, FAR Limited and its partners are continuing with the SNE development with development plans recently submitted to the Government of Senegal. FID for this 500+mmbbl development is targeting for end 2019 with first oil in 2022.

Related links:

• FAR goes further with another industry partner with Petronas
• FAR AMI with CNOOC in Senegal and The Gambia
• Senegal moves ahead

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FAR goes further with another industry partner

On 26^th February, FAR announced that it had agreed to farm-out a 40% interest in Blocks A2 and A5 in The Gambia to Petronas. FAR will retain 40% and operatorship; the remaining 20% is held by Erin Energy – FAR farmed in to the blocks in March 2017 in return for upfront payment of USD5.2 million and FAR funding an exploration well (to be drilled in 2018) up to USD8 million.

Under the deal, Petronas will fund 80% of the Samo-1 exploration well up to USD45 million with the option to take on operatorship for the development. Petronas will also pay USD6 million on closing of the transaction, well back costs of USD6.4 million and non-well back costs of USD1.1 million. The well is planned to be drilled in late 2018 targeting unrisked prospective resources of 825mmbbl.

These are highly exciting blocks, lying to the south of the large SNE and FAN discoveries in Senegal and presents an opportunity to potentially capture the successful trend to date along the coast of West Africa. FAR has completed detailed geotechnical studies and from 3D seismic, FAR has identified large prospects similar to the fields that FAR has participated in in Senegal. FAR has mapped two drillable prospects, Samo and Mambo with further leads identified on the block.

The entry of Petronas comes a year after FAR attracted another major NOC into the basin – in March 2017, FAR and CNOOC entered into an Area of Mutual Interest (“AMI”) agreement with CNOOC with the two companies agreeing to partner in evaluation, bidding and negotiating farm-ins and licences across Senegal and The Gambia. The AMI lasts for a period of two years.

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Tortue unitisation across Mauritania and Senegal

The governments of Mauritania and Senegal have signed an Inter-Governmental Cooperation Agreement in another step forward for the Tortue gas development which straddles the border of the two countries. The field will now be unitised with an initial split of resources 50:50 and a mechanism for future equity redeterminations based on actual production and other technical data.

FID of the field remains on track, targeting year end 2018 with first gas in 2021. The BP-led joint venture is looking at a near-shore FLNG concept which will reduce costs significantly.

The unitised ownership will be BP 61% operator, Kosmos 29%, and government partners retaining the remaining 10%.

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Kosmos' end of a winning streak with dry well at Requin Tigre

Kosmos Requin Tigre prospect was announced dry this morning. This was a "make it" well that had the potential to add 60bcf of gas in the Senegal/Mauritania trend and would have increased total gas discovered in the basin to over 100tcf. However, this dry well constrains Kosmos' growth in the basin with no further exploration drilling in area for now. The drillship will now proceed to test two oil prospects offshore Suriname commencing in early Q2 2018.

With three dry wells in a row, Requin Tigre, Hippocampe and Lamantin (the last two targeting liquids), Kosmos shine as an exploration company is now wearing off. It now follows in the footsteps of other E&Ps such as Tullow, which was once an exploration-led company but increasingly focussed on delivering on its projects and commercialising an inventory of discoveries.

For now, it appears that Kosmos' West African story is finished.

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Kosmos: An unfinished West African story

Kosmos has had a busy 2017 chasing a high risk high reward oil play and working up its Senegal/Mauritania gas resources.

In the second half of the year Hippocampe and Lamantin both came in dry ending the company's campaign for higher value oil. It can now focus on developing the c.40tcf of gas found at Tortue, Teranga, Yakaar and BirAllah. It has hopefully found the right partner in BP who farmed-in in late 2016. Although not generally seen as a big gas player, BP is increasingly focussed on gas as it turns to the future - the major is shifting to investing in large scale gas projects and look to increase global production to c.60% gas from the current c.50%.

When we met with Kosmos earlier this year, they noted that they had their choice of Supermajor when seeking a partner with attractive offers from the usual suspects. Kosmos see BP as the partner who is fully aligned with them, with BP going as far as setting up Senegal/Mauritania a separate profit centre to demonstrate their seriousness.

The West African gas play continues to be derisked with the 60tcf Requin Tigre prospect being drilled and results expected in early 2018 which would increase gas resources in the basin to c.100tcf if successful. This could add a significant leg to a multi-phase LNG project. However, a dry well would dampen the high mood in the basin with the growth outlook more constrained.

FID around Tortue is planned in 2018, although success at Requin Tigre could change the development order with Tortue (which straddles the Senegal/Mauritania border) delayed. It should also be noted that gas would come onstream at a time of a gas glut with LNG in North America, East Africa and Australia coming onstream.

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Senegal moves ahead

Cairn Energy, the operator of the SNE field in Senegal, released a resource update on 22^nd August as part of its half-year announcement.

The updated 2C resource base is 563mmbbl gross (vs. 473mmbbl in May 2016) and now brings it in line with Woodside's estimate of 560mmbbl, but is still far below that of partner FAR which carries 641mmbbl (assessed by RISC). The differing resource estimates is nothing new and we constantly see the other partners playing catch-up with FAR.

Focus is now on FEED with no further drilling planned until after FID. It is envisaged that SNE will undertake a phased development with the initial phase targeting the lower 500 series sands and core area of the upper 400 series sands. The second phase will target the remainder of the 400 series and more outreach parts of the field.

Gross capex is currently estimated at USD2.3 bn, but could come down as the engineering is defined and possibility of Woodside bringing in an existing FPSO. FID for Phase 1 is planned for the end of 2018 with first oil in 2021 and an initial plateau of 75-125mbopd.

The partners are Cairn 40%, Woodside 35%, FAR 15% and Petrosen 10% (Petrosen has the option to increase its interest to 18% during the development phase).

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SNE North is Sirius

Cairn has completed the SNE-1 North exploration well (Sirius prospect), located c.15km north of the original SNE-1 discovery. The well reach TD 2,837m and was completed ahead of schedule. A 24m gross hydrocarbon column was encountered across three intervals with 11m net condensate and gas pay in the primary objective and 4m net oil pay in the secondary objective.

A full set of oil, condensates and gas samples were recovered to surface from the 500 series sands, the same sand series that contributes the bulk of volumes in the main SNE field. The oil is slightly lighter at 35˚ API (vs. 32˚ API in SNE).

Further work will be required to establish the size and commerciality of the discovery, although FAR has assigned 294mmbbl of mean recoverable resources. The find has positive connotations for the block demonstrating further hydrocarbon potential to the north of the block. The well will now be plugged and abandoned and concludes the five well 2017 drilling campaign and the Stena DrillMAX rig will be released.

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Yakaar - major gas discovery offshore Senegal

 Kosmos has made a substantial 15tcf gas discovery offshore Senegal. The Yakaar-1 well on the Cayar Offshore Profond licence intersected a gross hydrocarbon column of 120m and encountered 45m of net pay. The well confirmed the presence of thick, stacked, reservoir sands over a large area with very good porosity and permeability.

This discovery marks the continuation of Kosmos’ success in the Mauritania/Senegal river basin (Tortue, Ahmeyin, Marsouin and Teranga). Yakaar and Teranga together hold 20tcf (Pmean gas resource) and creates the opportunity for a second LNG hub in Senegal (in addition to the planned Greater Tortue Area).

Source: Kosmos Energy May 2017 company presentation

Kosmos has revised its exploration schedule since February 2017, introducing Hippocampe to the mix which has been prioritised ahead of Lamantin and Requin Tigre. Hippocampe is potentially a more valuable, liquid prone prospect and would likely be easier to commercialise in the case of success than the deepwater gas resources to date.

The drilling schedule over the next 12 months is now:

• Tortue-DST (imminent)
• Hippocampe-1 (Q3/4 2017)
• Lamantin-1 (Q4 2017)
• Requin Tigre-1 (Q4 2017/Q1 2018)

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Major interest in Senegal

On 3rd May, Total announced that it had signed two agreements with Senegal:

• Acquisition of the RPO block (Total 90%, Petrosen 10%) which lies in deepwater immediately adjacent to the SNE and FAN discoveries (Cairn 40%, Woodside 35%, FAR 15%, Petrosen 10%)
• Agreement to perform studies to assess the exploration potential of Senegal’s ultra-deep offshore and become operator of an exploration block.

This activity follows the recent transaction by BP into Kosmos’ exploration and appraisal acreage in Mauritania and Senegal, and CNOOC Nexen’s strategic partnership with FAR in Senegal and The Gambia. In the latter, the partnership covers an initial two year period, providing for co-operation and potential joint bidding on farm-ins, acquisitions and open acreage. FAR and CNOOC Nexen will also share technical expertise and relationships.

While the tangible benefits of this relationship cannot currently be quantified, CNOOC Nexen will be a useful partner to have as SNE progresses towards FEED and may eventually acquire or help fund FAR post FID. CNOOC Nexen could also have an interest in FAR’s Gambian blocks that lie to the south of SNE.

CNOOC is an established player in Africa with development/production in Uganda and Nigeria and exploration interests in Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and the Republic of Congo.

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FAR AMI with CNOOC in Senegal and The Gambia

On 31^st March, FAR announced that it had entered into an Area of Mutual Interest Agreement with Chinese state giant CNOOC for the joint co-operation on the evaluation of and entry into new opportunities across Senegal and The Gambia.

This follows on FAR’s farm-in to 80% of Blocks A2 and A5 in Gambia from Erin Energy earlier this week.

The announcement on the arrangement with CNOOC follows:

“FAR has signed an Area of Mutual Interest (“AMI”) agreement with CNOOC UK Limited (“CNOOC UK”). The AMI covers selected licences offshore Senegal and The Gambia within the designated area.

The AMI provides FAR and CNOOC UK with agreed arrangements to partner in evaluating, bidding, negotiating and managing joint ventures on farm-in and open acreage opportunities for oil and gas licences. The AMI agreement period is for two years.

In combination, FAR and CNOOC UK bring together expertise of the Mauritania-Senegal-Guinea-Bissau (“MSGB”) offshore basin and the capabilities of an international deep water operator.
FAR and CNOOC UK are committed to building long term strategic relationships with the host Governments of Senegal and The Gambia and their people.
This agreement positions FAR to further expand its portfolio and establish itself as one of the major players in the rapidly emerging MSGB Basin – a basin that is increasingly attracting the attention of the world’s oil “majors”.

CNOOC UK Limited is a subsidiary of CNOOC Limited which (together with its subsidiaries) is the largest producer of offshore crude oil and natural gas in China and one of the largest independent oil and gas exploration and production companies in the world.”

Related Links

• FAR signs strategic AMI Agreement with CNOOC UK Limited 
• FAR expands exploration portfolio in West African hot spot – Secures 80% stake in high potential offshore blocks in The Gambia 

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Kosmos exploration - 2017 rising stars

With a strong balance sheet, cash flow generation in Ghana and exploration/development carry provided by BP through the recent Mauritania and Senegal deal, Kosmos is well positioned to
focus on its 2017+ exploration drilling plans, which will "test some of the largest prospects identified by the industry".

Despite its current gassy position in West Africa, management emphasises its confidence in finding higher value liquids: "Updated hydrocarbon charge model explains results to date and predicts phase - we believe there is a strong chance of finding oil or liquid-rich gas on the outboard basin floor fan fairways".

The high-graded 2017 prospect portfolio comprises:

Yakaar Prospect (Senegal): 15tcfe + 0.75-1.5bnbbl (gross unrisked) prospect located down-dip of the Teranga-1 gas discovery – combination structural-stratigraphic trap, well-defined on 3D with AVO support

Requin Prospect (Mauritania): 5–10tcfe + 0.25-1.1bnbbl (gross unrisked) prospect located outboard of the Tortue gas discovery – combination structural-stratigraphic trap, defined on 2D, 3D seismic currently being processed

Lamantin Prospect (Mauritania): 2-3bnboe (gross unrisked) prospect located in the north of the region – combination structural-stratigraphic trap with flat spot, defined on 2D, 3D interpretation currently in progress.

Requin Tigre Prospect (Senegal): 60tcfe + 3-6bnbbl (gross unrisked) resource potential located outboard of the Tortue gas discovery – combination structural-stratigraphic trap, defined on 3D seismic with AVO support and flat spot, awaiting final volumes to complete prospect evaluation and confirm well location

In terms of upcoming funding, the insurance payments should continue to cover the ongoing costs associated with the Jubilee repair. Continued TEN development drilling in 2018+ should help boost production and cash flow from Ghana. In addition the Atwood Achiever drilling contract expires in November this year and partner BP is set to provide in excess of USD900 million of cash and carry.

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BP Christmas shopping

BP has announced a series of high profile acquisitions in the past few weeks. The deals are in line with BP's longer term strategy of building in regions where they can gain "scale and materiality", although the company has moved more quickly than expected based on OGInsight's recent conversation with them, where BP said they were in divestment and portfolio rationalisation mode. This potentially signals a view of an improving oil price environment and willingness to move from balance sheet conservatism to growth.

At the end of November, BP acquired a 10% interest in Zohr from Eni. Since then, BP has announced two further acquisitions:

ADCO Concession

BP announced over the weekend that it had secured a 10% stake in the Abu Dhabi’s multi-billion barrel resource ADCO concession. BP previously held 9.5% in the concession prior to the expiry of its licence in January 2014. Other holders of the concession are currently Total (10%), INPEX (5%) and GS Energy (3%).

The concession is for 40 years and will add 1.8bnboe of 2P reserves to BP (net). The agreement includes various fields in the country with a total resource base estimated at c.20bnboe and represents a long term, low decline, sizeable resource for BP. The timing of the transaction will allow BP to book the reserves for the year end.

BP will pay a signature bonus of $2.2bn for its 10% stake, in line with the bonuses paid by other participants. However, the key noticeable difference is that BP will be paying in shares and will be issuing 393 million shares at £4.47 or a 9% discount, equating to 2% of its stock. The shares will be held by Mubudala and signals flexibility on the part of Abu Dhabi to secure a deal in a tough environment.

Mauritania and Senegal with Kosmos Energy

On 19^th December, BP announced that it had reached agreement with Kosmos Energy to acquire an operated interest in the Tortue field and surrounding blocks offshore Mauritania and Senegal. This will comprise of a 62% operated interest in C-6, C-8, C-12 and C-13 on the Mauritania side and 32.5% interest in Saint-Louis Profond and Cayar Profond on the Senegal side.

As part of the deal, BP will pay USD162 million upon closing of the transaction, appraisal carry of USD221 million and development carry of USD533 million bring total consideration to USD916 million. BP will also pay a contingent bonus of up to USD2/bbl for up to 1bnbbl of liquids structured as a royalty, should liquids be discovered. Kosmos will continue as exploration operator of the blocks.

The blocks contain the Tortue field, which is estimated to hold 15tcf of gas resources with potential for 1bnbbl of liquids. Project sanction is expected to be in 2018 with the most likely development scenario being a phased near-shore FLNG development.

Greater Tortue Area
Source: Kosmos Energy

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Near-term appraisal for FAR

FAR has announced that the partners of the SNE field have contracted the Stena DrillMax for a minimum two well programme starting in Q2 2017. The ship is currently in the Canary Islands and ready to be deployed with crew assembled.

The two firm wells, SNE-5 and SNE-6, will target the upper reservoir units and will include drill stem testing and likely an interference test between SNE-3 and SNE-5. The programme aims to firm up the resource base to help scope and refine the field development plan.

It is noted that the new rig has been contracted at a significant discount to the previous rig contract and a two well program could cost as little at USD50 million.

Separately, Woodside (35%) has settled its deal to acquire ConocoPhillips' interest in the SNE field as announced on 31^st October and was involved in the approval of this work programme.

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Senegal offshore reaches threshold for commerciality

On 8th February, FAR Ltd announced an updated independent resource report (by RISC) of the SNE discovery offshore Senegal (Cairn 40%, ConocoPhillips 35%, FAR 15% and Petrosen 10%). The report increases contingent resources for the discovery to 240mmbbl 1C (from 150mmbbl), 468mmbbl 2C (from 330mmbbl) and 940mmbbl (from 670mmbbl). This assessment includes the SNE-1 discovery well and subsequently reprocessed (more accurate) 3D seismic. Significantly the update does not include the successful SNE-2 appraisal well. Given the lack of major oil discoveries worldwide, SNE is an important find (largest since 2014) and on further positive appraisal drilling, will be an increasingly desirable asset.

Cairn previously indicated that around 200mmbbl is the commercial threshold to underpin a 'foundation' development offshore Senegal, where fiscal terms would yield a 20% IRR at USD45-50/bbl oil price. The resource report would imply that the discovery now has the scale to support a development and the SNE-2 appraisal well demonstrates deliverability following strong production tests (8,000bbl/d from blocky sands and 1,000bbl/d from hetrolithics). The next element of the appraisal campaign is to test for connectivity and the upcoming drilling should help to determine this. Significant further drilling needs to be completed; however results to date are encouraging.

The second appraisal well SNE-3 has now been cored and logged with production test results expected later in February. This will be followed by the Bellatrix exploration well testing a 168mmbbls P50 prospect, then deepening to test the northern extent of SNE (no production test planned). In addition to a more comprehensive resource update in mid-2016, there is the option for three further wells later this year. With drilling time currently ahead of expectations, there is scope to drill an additional well without extending timeline or budget.

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Sangomar Deep - Senegal's first offshore discovery

• On 7 October 2014, Cairn Energy and its partners announced that a significant oil discovery had been made in the FAN-1 exploration well in the Sangomar Deep block, Senegal's first offshore discovery
• 29m net pay
• Gross oil interval of >500m
• No OWC encountered
• Distinct oil types recovered 28-41 API
• This was followed by a second discovery in the SNE-1 well, announced on 10 November 2014
• 36m net pay
• Gross oil interval of 95m with gas cap
• Oil of 32 API, oil and water recovered to surface
• 1C: 150mmbbl, 2C:330mmbbl, 3C: 670mmbbl
• Block is operated by Cairn (40%) - other partners are COP (35%), Far (15%), Petrosen (10%)
• SNE-1 is potentially commercial on a standalone basis; FAN-1 economics more marginal - may be tied back to SNE-1 or warrant a stand-alone development, will need further delineation

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