Battle of the routes

Significant resources have been discovered in East Africa with 1.7bnbbl lying in Uganda and 600mmbbl in Kenya. The key barrier to monetising the vast amounts of oil is an export pipeline. In 2010, when Tullow acquired Heritage’s acreage, first oil was envisaged for 2016. Over the last five years, this timing has slowly crept back with estimates now pushed back to late-2019 despite government PR continuing to promote first oil in 2016-17. There...

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Gran Tierra's little pain

Gran Tierra is a TSX and NYSE listed E&P with a focus on Colombia. Its main assets are the Costayaco and Moqueta fields in the Putumayo Basin which accounted for 88% of the company’s Colombian NAR production of 18.4mboe/d in 2014. The company also has an exploration portfolio in Brazil (supported by minimal production of 900bbl/d NAR in 2014) and Peru. In March 2015, Gran Tierra announced that it was suspending development operations on...

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Oil price contingent payment: Bridging the valuation gap in an uncertain oil price environment

In the current oil price environment, buyer-seller alignment on valuation is likely to be an issue with differences driven by view on the oil price outlook. A number of transactions have stalled or been pulled over the last year. One possible way to bridge this gap is to have a contingent consideration element that is contingent on the recovery of the oil price; the seller benefits from recovery in the oil price if it believes a recovery is...

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Iran interim agreement: the Minotaur's labyrinth

In the story of the Minotaur, Daedalus was tasked with building a labyrinth under the order of King Minos of Crete to imprison the dreaded creature. The Minotaur, part man part bull, was an unnatural being. He was created when Pasiphae, King Minos’ wife mated with the bull sent by Poseidon; this was made possible by the wooden cow crafted by Daedalus into which Pasiphae climbed into. The Iran framework agreement, is in some respects like the...

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Victoria Oil & Gas: Cameroon's emerging integrated utility

Victoria Oil & Gas is an AIM listed E&P with a 60% WI in the Logbaba field, Cameroon and an associated infrastructure network that supplies gas to the local market. The company acquired its interest in the Logbaba field in 2008 and drilled its first appraisal well (La-105) on the block in 2009, the first onshore well since the 1950s. First production commenced in 2012 with the roll-out of a distribution pipeline network in 2013 Victoria...

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Suppressing the Brotherhood: Avoiding a Repeat of History

On 4 July 2013, the Egyptian military removed President Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood from power after four days of intense street protests. General Sisi, the Egyptian defence minister at the time, quickly took the helm and announced the change in government in a televised address to fireworks and cheering crowds across the country. The US, UN and EU were reluctant to describe the ousting as a coup, although all voiced concerns about the...

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Gulf of Aden: Dire Straits

The Gulf of Aden is a strategically important shipping route linking the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. The port city of Aden controls the Bab al-Mandab strait, the gateway between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden through which 21,000 ships pass through each year. According to the EIA, 3.8mmbbl/d of crude oil and refined products passed through this route in 2013 alone. The capture of Aden by the Houthis on 25 March 2015 was therefore a...

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Saleh: Enemies become allies

The Houthi movement was founded in the 1990s to revive a branch of Shia Islam known as Zaidism. Historically the Zaidis had ruled over North Yemen until their toppling in 1962 during the Yemen Civil War. Since then, they have been increasingly marginalised by the new regime which viewed Zaidism as a threat. In the beginning, the Houthi movement was peaceful. It sought a voice in a regime where it was being opressed. It called for a partnership...

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