Oda to Joy!

On 30^th November, Centrica announced that it had submitted the Plan for Development and Operation (PDO) for the Oda field to the Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy. Oda, previously called Butch, is owned by the following partners:

• Centrica (40% operator)
• Suncor (30%)
• Aker BP (15%)
• Faroe (15%)

Oda is an oil field, discovered in 2011 and lies in the Norwegian North Sea. The field will be developed as a subsea tie-back to the Ula patform, located c.13km away. The field will be developed with two production wells and one water injection well. Oil will be onward transported via the Norpipe system to the Teeside Terminal in the UK. The gas will be sold to Ula for injection to improve recovery in the Ula reservoir.

Ula is located in shallow water depths (66m) and is good quality reservoir with light oil. The development is planned to cost c.USD640 million, with first oil in 2019. The field has reserves of 42mmboe and plateau production is planned to reach 35mboepd.

Ula Area
Source: Faroe Petroleum September 2016 investor presentation

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Siccar Point is building up its business

OGInsights recently caught up with the Siccar Point team following its successful acquisition of the OMV North Sea business, which includes an 11.8% stake in the flagship Schiehallion oil field. Together with the acquisition of a stake in the Mariner field earlier this year, Siccar Point has now built up a North Sea business of relevant scale.

Siccar Point is a North Sea focussed E&P, with financial backing from Blackstone, Blue Water Energy and GIC. It was set up in 2014 and after extensive screening of the North Sea over the past two years, the team are pleased to have finally closed a couple of transactions – the team have looked at over 50 potentially acquisitions including, not surprisingly, the ConocoPhillips and Shell North Sea assets.

The minority, non-operated stake (8.9%) in Mariner was acquired from JX Nippon with expectations of first oil in 2018. However, it was clear that this was only a first step to building a bigger North Sea business, which a small stake in a single asset is not. In that regard, the OMV package came along at an opportune time.

Having looked at the Shell North Sea assets, Siccar Point and its owners/financiers believed it was best to pass on the opportunity. As well as being a large portfolio for someone the size of Siccar Point, the substantial number of gas assets and attempt to package in the stranded Corrib asset offshore Ireland, made it strategically less attractive. The decommissioning liability that would come along with the Shell portfolio was also challenging. The OMV portfolio, which came with a smaller number of long life assets was therefore much more desirable.

The financing of North Sea assets has been an ongoing challenge for vehicles such as Siccar Point which are backed by private equity money. The business model requires for acquisitions to be financed with substantial amounts of debt, and in most cases, the amount of debt that can be raised is based on the amount of reserves. However, the UK has a regulatory regime which requires operators to provide financial guarantees (generally in the form of letters of credit) for decommissioning liabilities – these are now coming to the forefront of attention given the maturity of the North Sea and imminent or near-term cessation of production across the basin. These guarantees consume much of the debt capacity and therefore require larger cash or “equity cheques” to be fronted by acquirers. Ultimately the OMV North Sea portfolio was one that worked well for Siccar Point in terms of size and ability to finance.

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Not so Stella

Following Ithaca’s recent update on Stella, it has now announced that there will be a short delay to first production with the operation coming on stream in January.

The offshore commissioning of the FPF-1 platform is well advanced and continues. However during routine inspections, faults were found on a number of electrical junction boxes on the vessels processing facilities. Repairs are now underway but this will delay field start up. The repair costs are expected to be immaterial.

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Near-term appraisal for FAR

FAR has announced that the partners of the SNE field have contracted the Stena DrillMax for a minimum two well programme starting in Q2 2017. The ship is currently in the Canary Islands and ready to be deployed with crew assembled.

The two firm wells, SNE-5 and SNE-6, will target the upper reservoir units and will include drill stem testing and likely an interference test between SNE-3 and SNE-5. The programme aims to firm up the resource base to help scope and refine the field development plan.

It is noted that the new rig has been contracted at a significant discount to the previous rig contract and a two well program could cost as little at USD50 million.

Separately, Woodside (35%) has settled its deal to acquire ConocoPhillips' interest in the SNE field as announced on 31^st October and was involved in the approval of this work programme.

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Eland's OML40 ready to ramp up

Eland this morning reported impressive test results from the Opuama-3 well on OML 40. The Long and Short Strings tested at 5,955bopd and 5,067bopd, respectively, and no water. Management now expects Opuama-3 and Opuama-1 to generate gross output to ~14,500bopd.

Unfortunately, OML 40 remains shut in as a result of interruptions to third party export facilities. In light of these export issues, the company intends to accelerate plans to barge crude, with deliveries commencing by January. The company is in discussion with its partner NPDC to accelerate work on a permanent alternative export solution in advance of the material increase in production that is expected from the side-tracking of Opuama-7 and the re-entry and completion of Gbetiokun-1. However, there is no intention to commence these work-overs until production can be regularised.

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Canacol: Second pipeline to double export capacity

Canacol has executed a major agreement with Promigas to expand the gas transmission network from Jobo to the Colombian coast by constructing a second pipeline. The project will be fully funded by Promigas and expected to commence by the end of this year. Permitting is planned to take up to 18 months with construction taking 6 months - the pipeline should be commissioned in 2018/19. The pipeline will more than double Canacol's capacity from 90mmcfpd to 190mmcfpd. Gas supply contracts have been secured for this additional capacity and the company will now need to find additional reserves to fulfil the contracts.

During 2016 Canacol raised USD36 million to accelerate drilling targeting c.100bcf reserves in the Lower Magdalena basin‎. So far the company has successfully drilled the Nispero-1, Trombon-1 and Nelson-6 near field exploration wells. By year end, the Clarinete-3 and Nelson-8 development wells are scheduled to be drilled and tested.

Canacol plans to keep one rig active in 2017 to drill through the company's prospect inventory. This drilling campaign is crucial to establish the gas reserves necessary to underpin the long term contracts. Canacol's reserve base of 79mmboe has a RLI of 12 years at current production levels, but would fall to 6 years if production rises to 190mmcfpd.

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BP: Adapting to the times - Where were they now? (Part 2)

The OGInsights team recently met with the BP corporate strategy department to discuss how the strategic direction of the company has changed since the collapse in oil prices. In this two part entry, we look at where BP were a year ago and where they are now in terms of strategic thinking.

Part 2: Where are they now?
With oil prices appearing to stay lower for longer, BP’s priorities have changed and all large M&A is on hold. Focus is on cost cutting, targeting breakeven of USD 50-55/bbl over the next year and farming down high working interests and material exploration commitments.

On the opposite end of the scale, the BP team remains busy on divestment with a target of offloading USD 3-5 billion this year – this compares with a run rate of USD 2-3 billion per year for BP. However recognising the oil price environment, divestments are aimed at non-oil price linked assets, namely midstream and refining. BP shared that there are no country exits on the mid/downstream side, so the portfolio tidy-up will very much be pruning within the portfolio.

As oil prices recover, BP will begin looking at reshaping the portfolio for the longer term and the focus will be on OECD assets (i.e. as opposed to companies like Tullow, which BP have been reported to be monitoring for years). Of note, BP noted that any material acquisitions will likely be in US tight oil, where BP see a clear gap compared with its peers. Oil sands are a “no” following COP21 and despite other majors investing in renewables, there is currently no interest in this area given the loss making nature of this division historically.

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Stella progress

‎Ithaca has reported that the Stella field is expected to come onstream at the end of November. Production will commence initially from one well, before bringing the remaining four wells online soon after which will ramp up production to plateau by year end.

The vessel hook-up is well advanced and tanker trials have now been completed.‎ The 44km spurline connecting the field to the Norpipe system was also successfully installed with switching from tanker to pipeline export to occur during 2017.

Ithaca expects to add a tie-back to the FPF-1 platform every two years to maintain production efficiency. As a result, it is expected that the Harrier development will soon commence with contracting in the near future to make the most of current low rates; separately Vorlich will be progressed towards FDP approval.

The commissioning of Stella will more than double Ithaca's existing production and reduces group opex towards USD17/bbl and cash break-even to USD22/bbl. Ithaca's balance sheet will begin to materially de-lever from the beginning of next year, putting the company in a good position ahead of its upcoming debt refinancing.

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One day in November: A Colombian visit to the UK

At the beginning of November, President Manuel Santos and his delegation from Colombia were in the UK on an official state visit. The Wednesday of that week was dedicated to showcasing Colombia’s oil & gas industry with senior members from the industry presenting in London. The next day, the delegation continued their tour in Aberdeen to build ties with the historic oil & gas city.

OGInsights attended the event and had an opportunity to speak with Germán Arce, the Minister of Energy and Mines, and Orlando Velandia, President of the ANH. They shared their views on the current state of and the outlook for the Colombian oil & gas industry.

The delegation was clearly excited to be in London and Aberdeen and keen to talk about the future of Colombian offshore oil & gas. The offshore is very early stage, but critical to sustaining the country’s longer term production levels. Before the offshore can make material progress, it was recognised that a whole supporting industry together with offshore expertise would need to be established (its offshore experience is minimal with Colombia being an onshore producer to date). For example, this would include support for offshore drilling, rig servicing, helicopter services, vessels among a much longer list of things. Forming strong ties with Aberdeen, which is seen as a “centre of excellence” in the offshore and where the North Sea industry was born, is therefore a priority for Colombia.

Barranquilla, a coastal city in northern Colombia, has been appropriately chosen and aspires to be the “Aberdeen of Colombia”. The ties between the two cities are set to strengthen and Barranquilla will call on Aberdeen’s expertise, learnings and experience as it sets to build up the city to support the emerging offshore industry in Colombia. Academics, service companies and oil & gas companies were all present at the event with the mayor of Barranquilla, the charismatic Alejandro Char, emphasising the importance of knowledge transfer and desire to “learn everything”.

To date, 22 offshore areas have been licensed: 9 TEAs which are for technical evaluation only (not drilling), and 13 exploration contracts. In total, 45 areas have been drawn up with 33 in the Caribbean and 12 in the Pacific. The infancy of the offshore, together with the lack of a supporting industry translates into high risk; however the size of the prize is large enough to attract major international players including ExxonMobil, Anadarko, Shell and Repsol.

Despite the excitement around the offshore, the importance of the onshore was not forgotten. Managing surface risk is still very much top of mind. Minister Arce elaborated on the situation - the onshore has seen a reduction in the level of attacks but an increase in social activity. He therefore encourages E&Ps to evolve their corporate social strategy away from employing on-the-ground protection to negotiation and dialogue, which is a very different skill set. In the south of the country, the ANH believes there is vast potential, underexplored in part due to militant activity and sees the continuation of peace as critical to maximising hydrocarbon recovery in the onshore.

The Colombian oil & gas industry is at a turning point, with attracting international investment very much key to advancing the industry. The government has made significant effort in opening up the country and building a business friendly environment. With the offshore on the brink of being the next frontier, the world will be keeping a close eye on Colombia and how it will use its potential new found hydrocarbon wealth.

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BP: Adapting to the times - Where were they then? (Part 1)

The OGInsights team recently met with the BP corporate strategy department to discuss how the strategic direction of the company has changed since the collapse in oil prices. In this two part entry, we look at where BP were a year ago and where they are now in terms of strategic thinking.

Part 1: Where were they then?
At the beginning of 2015, BP already began planning for a "lower for longer" scenario, however growth was still very much top of mind. Reserve replacement was a key challenge to the company's longer term existence and the USD2 billion annual exploration programme at the time, assuming a USD5/boe finding cost, would only yield 400mmboe of new reserves compared to BP's annual production of c.750mmboe. BP wanted to maintain a quality exploration programme, but it was increasingly recognised that M&A would be needed to meet the necessary level of reserve replacement.

In terms of M&A, BP were looking for "scale and materiality" and needed to be in a position where it would be relevant to a country. They shared a few key themes of their strategic thinking back in 2015, with a focus on their African portfolio:

1. Existing portfolio sufficient

• They were satisfied with their positions in Africa (Angola, Egypt, Algeria) and did not see other opportunities in the region of sufficient scale to justify a new country entry.

2. Brazil over West Africa

• Although the West African Transform Margin was an attractive play, BP's position in the conjugate Brazil offshore was seen as an easier play on the geology without the need to deal with multiple countries/governments along the West African coast.

3. Angolan monetisation

• Angolan geology was clearly a coveted part of the African portfolio, and in 2015, BP were reaching a critical phase of exploration testing with a series of wells in the year (which were technical successes).
• However, the Angolan position was littered with a lot of stranded discoveries and could not be developed on the current cost base.
• Options to monetisation being considered were sharing of costs, or acquiring to build critical mass there.
• Acquiring Cobalt was clearly something being considered.

4. Rebalancing to the onshore

• The company's portfolio was viewed as over exposed to deepwater and not the balance BP would like to be in a low oil price environment.
• They were glad to have missed out on East African gas story which has been plagued by delays and upcoming expensive developments.
• Tullow and Africa Oil continue to be monitored in the background, as an opportunity to rebalance the onshore portfolio, and NewAge's Congo position and Savannah Petroleum in Niger were added to the company's M&A screening hopper as emerging candidates.

In Part 2, we look at how BP's strategic direction has changed since 2015.

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