Saudi Arabia - joining the dots: Part 1 - The return of the Sudairis

Saudi Arabia - joining the dots is a series of blog entries exploring Saudi Arabia's role in the oil markets with a brief look at the history of the royal family and politics that dictate and influence the Kingdom's oil policy.

Part 1 - The return of the Sudairis

On Friday 23^rd January 2015, King Abdullah passed away paving the way for the Sudairi branch of the Royal Family to consolidate power and strengthen its grip over the country. 

Read More

Repsol makes US$8.3bn offer for Talisman Energy

Repsol makes US$8.3bn offer for Talisman Energy @ US$8/share

86% premium to 12 December closing price

...but not that big in the context of the recent share price fall

Read More

Sub-Saharan Africa - newsflow update

Gabon Deepwater - Leopard discovery

• Leopard-1 was drilled on licence BCD10
• Shell 75%*, CNOOC 25%
• Encountered substantial gas column with 200m net gas pay
• Further appraisal required
• FLNG? 3-4 tcf may be required, although economics of sales into Europe are marginal
• Government is also keen to grow domestic gas market

Congo Offshore - Eni/NewAge - follow up discovery in Marine XII

• Minsala Marine discovery
• Estimated 1bnboe in place, of which 80% oil
• In same shallow water block as the Litchendjili and Nene Marine fields, both of which are currently undergoing development

Angola - first discovery in Kwanza Basin

• Pre-salt offshore Kwanza Basin - oil discovery made by Repsol
• Will evaluate commerciality of the Locosso oil field
• Located in Block 22, immediately to south of Cobalt's Block 21 which contains the play opening Cameia field
• Given remote location and water depth, Wood Mackenzie estimates will require 300mmbbl to be commercial on standalone basis

Liberia, Cote d'Ivoire - Anadarko's non-commercial wells

• Anadarko wells in West Africa all encountered non-commercial oil
• Liberia: Iroko-1 and Timbo-1
• Cote d'Ivoire: Morue-1
• http://www.anadarko.com/SiteCollectionDocuments/PDF/Operations%20Reports/APC%203Q14%20Ops%20Report%2010-28-14.pdf

Nigeria - NNPC pre-empts sale of OML25

• NNPC has pre-empted on the sale of OML25
• Post transaction, NNPC will own 100% and likely transfer the interest to NPDC
• NPDC's portfolio is already overstretched and future investment will be heavily constrained
• The winning bidder of the Shell, Eni, Total process was Crestar Integrated Natural Resources Limited
• It is believed that the pre-emption, a decision made by the Minster of Energy, is due to Crestar's Chairman being  Osten Olorunsola
• The Minister of Energy had fired Osten Olorunsola as Director of Petroleum Resources in June 2013
• http://africaoilgasreport.com/2014/11/farm-in-farm-out/nnpc-in-desperate-search-for-funds-to-pay-for-oml-25/

South Sudan - fighting likely to intensify around fields

• Government and rebels now re-arming following end of rainy season
• Sudan is providing South Sudanese Machar-led rebels with weapons and intelligence
• Rebels likely to set-up bases where they can attack oil fields
• Local self defence militia are guarding fields bolstered by Chinese peacekeepers
• Should prevent rebels gaining control of fields, but fighting likely to intensify

East African export pipeline

• World bank has pledged USD600mm funding towards Ugandan/Kenyan export pipeline
• Total cost estimated to be >USD4bn
• Project still remains in early stages - commercial structure, construction, ownership and operations all yet to be determined
• FEED contracts expected to be awarded end of 2014

Read More

Brent falls - impact on E&A

Brent (above) has now fallen >25% since June...what are the E&Ps going to do...

Onshore flexibility, but not in the offshore

• Longer lead times, offshore spend tends to be committed vs. onshore
• Likely see cut back in E&A instead

Delayed payments

• Kurdistan, DNO and Genel are still to be paid for pipeline exports
• Egypt, TransGlobe has built up USD185m of receivables
• Nigeria, Seplat has built up USD215m receivables as government partners/stakeholders have been slow to pay

Read More

Obama Administration to bypass Congress on deal with Iran?

Obama Administration reported plan to bypass Congress on a deal with Iran

• Administration’s plan to suspend economic sanctions against Iran without a vote in Congress
• …Administration says Congress will have final say in whether to permanently lift sanctions

Permanent sanctions would only be lifted if Tehran demonstrates compliance with restrictions on its nuclear programme

• …and Iran must make sufficient progress in conceding its programme

At the same time, consider whether US requires Iranian support in the battle against the Islamic State?

According to Saudi intelligence, the P5+1 have conceded that Iran can maintain a civilian nuclear infrastructure

• Saudi wants the GCC to influence Congress to not approve retention of any nuclear facility

Read More

Sangomar Deep - Senegal's first offshore discovery

• On 7 October 2014, Cairn Energy and its partners announced that a significant oil discovery had been made in the FAN-1 exploration well in the Sangomar Deep block, Senegal's first offshore discovery
• 29m net pay
• Gross oil interval of >500m
• No OWC encountered
• Distinct oil types recovered 28-41 API
• This was followed by a second discovery in the SNE-1 well, announced on 10 November 2014
• 36m net pay
• Gross oil interval of 95m with gas cap
• Oil of 32 API, oil and water recovered to surface
• 1C: 150mmbbl, 2C:330mmbbl, 3C: 670mmbbl
• Block is operated by Cairn (40%) - other partners are COP (35%), Far (15%), Petrosen (10%)
• SNE-1 is potentially commercial on a standalone basis; FAN-1 economics more marginal - may be tied back to SNE-1 or warrant a stand-alone development, will need further delineation

Read More

Gunvor to expand into spot LNG trading as supply increases

Bloomberg

Gunvor Group, the world’s fourth-biggest oil trader, plans to expand into short-term buying and selling of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as global supply rises, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said.

The Cyprus-based trading house will charter vessels for spot agreements and sell cargoes in Asia and the Atlantic basin, tapping into supply from Nigeria, Australia and Southeast Asia, the people said, asking not to be identified because the plan is confidential.

Seth Pietras, a spokesman for Gunvor in Geneva, declined to comment by e-mail.

Gunvor follows Vitol, Trafigura Beheer, Glencore, global energy companies and utilities in competing for spot cargoes as new projects boost LNG supply, first from Australia and later from the US.

The company, which has so far focused on long-term contracts, has an agreement to liquefy natural gas at the planned Magnolia LNG project in the US as well as an accord to supply Panama with the fuel.

Gunvor is also considering a tie-up with OAO Novatek for the sale of fuel from the proposed Yamal LNG project in the Russian Arctic, Leonid Mikhelson, CEO of Tarko-Sale, Siberia-based Novatek, said in January.

Gunvor hired Ksenia Babenkova as an LNG trader for its Geneva office from Gazprom Marketing & Trading, while Kalpesh Patel from BG Group will start in Singapore, according to the people. They will focus on short-term trading.

Rising Trade

LNG trade will rise by 40% to 450 billion cubic meters (16 trillion cubic feet) by 2019, the International Energy Agency said in its medium-term gas market report in June. Spot and short-term LNG contracts accounted for 27% of total trade last year, compared with 25% in 2012, according to the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers, a Paris-based lobby group.

Spot prices for cargoes delivered to Northeast Asia, the world’s biggest buyer of LNG, rebounded to $11.70/MMBtu on Aug. 18, according to New York-based Energy Intelligence Group’s World Gas Intelligence publication. Prices fell for 21 weeks through July 14, the longest stretch since Bloomberg began reporting WGI data in June 2010, from an historic high of $19.70 earlier this year.

Almost 70 million metric tons of LNG capacity, or 20% of global capacity, is poised to come online in the next few years in Australia, Neil Beveridge and Oswald Clint, analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., said in an Aug. 22 report.

Source: Bloomberg

Read More