Canadian LNG: Wrong place wrong time for Petronas

Petronas entered Canada in 2011 to build a full upstream gas and LNG business. It did this in the face of declining domestic production and need to source international gas for both domestic consumption and its LNG trading portfolio. It made a move in June 2011 to partner with Progress Energy for CAD1.1 billion by agreeing to fund the majority of future drilling and capital expenditure on the company’s vast acreage position in the Montney play. In 2012, Petronas decided to acquire the whole of Progress Energy for CAD5.3 billion.

Petronas had a fully-fledged plan – consolidate acreage in the Montney (which it did by acquiring Talisman’s portfolio in 2013 for CAD1.5 billion), work up a plan to develop the gas in the ground and send it to an LNG plant, and bring in partners to help fund the hefty project once the plan was in place. In 2013, it appeared that Petronas was making good progress going out to award FEED contracts for the project. Between 2013 and 2015, Petronas brought in a string of Asian partners who were all hungry for more gas to satisfy their domestic appetites and keen to develop a gas and LNG project with Petronas. By the end of 2014, the ownership of the so called Pacific Northwest LNG project was Petronas 62%, Indian Oil 10%, Sinopec 10%, Japex 10%, China Huadian 5% and Petroleum Brunei 3%. However, the project then began hitting a series of roadblocks.

LNG was a completely new industry to Canada and the country did not have the regulatory framework in place – environmental policies and new taxes were being made up as Petronas progressed its project. There was much bickering and negotiations with the provincial and federal governments – with so many moving parts outside of its control, Petronas and its partners could not finalise its investment decision.

There was also strong opposition from environmental groups and the First Nations. Although their agendas overlapped on environmental protection and land preservation, the two groups did have opposing objectives. Some environmental groups wanted the project shelved altogether, whereas the First Nations wanted to share in the economic benefits with suitable protections for their lands.

The straw that broke the camel’s back came in September 2016 when the federal government granted environmental approval, but attached 190 conditions that would require the advanced project to be re-engineered and relocated to meet new onerous environmental requirements. The Pacific Northwest partners went back to the drawing board and even considered moving the liquefaction facility to another island and sourcing power from an hydroelectric plant rather than self-generate from gas. By July 2017, the partnership announced that it was pulling the plug on Pacific Northwest LNG and began looking for buyers for its Montney acreage.

Pacific Northwest LNG had become too expensive and uncompetitive compared to US Gulf Coast LNG projects. While Pacific Northwest was struggling to progress things along, the US had clearly overtaken Canada on LNG exports and were able to do things more cheaply. The US had extensive pipeline infrastructure to carry gas to the coast for export, existing LNG import terminals which could be flipped for exports by adding liquefaction facilities and moved quickly on the regulatory front to give companies and investors certainty on their LNG projects.

Cost stack for pre-FID LNG projects delivered to Asia
Source: Wood Mackenzie

Petronas took a brave step in opening up a new LNG industry in Canada, a developed country it thought would be business friendly with the protection of the law. Clearly the advent of LNG overwhelmed Canada and it was not yet ready to handle such complex projects. Petronas was the unlucky company that found itself in the wrong place at the wrong time.

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Tullow ventures into Peru

Tullow has farmed into Karoon Gas' 35% of Block Z-38 in Peru. This reduces Karoon Gas' interest to 40% with Pitkin Petroleum being a 25% partner.

Tullow has acquired the 35% interest in return for:

• Funding 43.75% of the cost of the first exploration well, capped at US$27.5m (for 100% cost of well) after which Tullow will pay its 35% share; and
• US$2m payable upon completion with US$7million payable upon declaration of commercial discovery and submission of a development plan to Perupetro.

Karoon has identified two prospects, Marina and Bonito, with a net unrisked prospective resources of 1.7bnbbl. Tullow will now drill the Marina prospect. Karoon Gas' 75% interest is still subject to completion of farm-in obligations which includes funding of two exploration wells.

The block has been in force majeure since 2014 and once lifted, Karoon Gas will have 22 months to complete its drilling commitment. Although the timing of drilling remains uncertain, the block is covered by high-quality 3D seismic and Marina is a potential candidate for drilling in 2019.

Separately, Tullow has concluded negotiations with Perupetro to acquire a 100% stake in offshore Blocks Z-64, Z-65, Z-66, Z-67 and Z-68.

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US LNG: a snapshot of where things stand in 2018

US shale has been a game changer for the gas markets. Often overshadowed by oil story, US gas production is the unloved sibling of oil – oversupplied, low prices, unprofitable and sometimes an unwanted by-product of oil production in the form of associated gas.

However 2017 came to demonstrate the vast potential for US gas and a complete change in direction with the country becoming a net exporter of gas for the first time. This started with first export from Sabine Pass LNG in 2016 which has now grown to four liquefaction trains with trains 5 in the works.  LNG export capacity could reach 8-9bcf/d in 2020 up from the current 2bcf/d, with additional facilities already under construction:

• Cove Point commenced feed gas at the end of 2017
• Elba Island Phase I will come onstream in H1 2018 and Phase II in H1 2019
• Freeport train 1 is planned for operation in 2018 with subsequent trains coming online throughout the rest of 2018 and 2019
• Corpus Christi and Cameron will also come online towards the end of this decade

Source: EIA

US LNG has been somewhat of a disruptor – it has brought destination flexibility and shorter-term procurement to the market that was once characterised by entirely long-term, oil-price linked offtake. This will shake up the market place and how LNG sourcing will evolve is yet to be understood.

Asia is slated to be the big winner with this extra source of gas with South Korea, Japan and China being the largest importers. This is all helped by the recent expansion of the Panama Canal, enabling LNG from the US east coast to Asia with a cheaper and 11 day shorter journey time. This puts into question whether any US west coast and Canadian LNG projects will take off – very likely no in the near-term. The east coast’s proximity to upstream gas, existing pipeline infrastructure to get gas to liquefaction plants and adapted docks means it remains an advantageous location to host LNG terminals.

Related post: Canadian LNG: Wrong place wrong time for Petronas

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Forties Pipeline System reopens in time for the New Year

On 11^th December, INEOS the owner of the Forties Pipeline System, had discovered a hairline crack in the pipeline at Red Moss near Netherley. The crack continued to grow upon monitoring and the entire system was subsequently shutdown. INEOS announced this morning that the repairs are "mechanically" complete with the system being restarted - export rates should resume to previous levels around the new year.

The system carries c.450mbbl/d of production from the North Sea to the Kinneil processing facility in Scotland. The 235 mile pipeline links more than 80 North Sea fields and delivers almost 40% of UK North Sea production. Upon its outage, Brent crude jumped to USD65/bbl signalling the importance of North Sea production to the global oil markets.

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Amerisur putting plans in motion

Amerisur is a story of slow and steady wins the race. The company had targeted 10mbbl/d to be reached a few years ago - with current production only at c.7mbbl/d, this target has clearly fallen by the wayside. Amerisur has learnt, and is continuing to learn, that doing business in Colombia (and Ecuador) is not straightforward and getting necessary government approvals can take months and sometimes years rather than weeks - the OBA pipeline being a case in point. Layer on top of this the local community liaisons and security issues in the Putumayo Basin, one begins to understand the impediments to Amerisur's progress over the past years.

Nevertheless the Amerisur team has managed its portfolio and navigated the winding road of being a Colombian E&P carefully and is now one of a small handful of successful producers in the Putumayo Basin. As well as building up its asset base beyond what was effectively a single asset company in Platanillo, Amerisur has made good progress on the exploration and appraisal front which will set the company up for the longer term.

Amerisur is a company we continue to watch with interest and with enough patience, is a rare success story that will materialise over time.

Drilling Update

North Platanillo
At the start of 2017, Amerisur had success at Plat-22 encountering 43ft of U-sands and flowing at 800bbl/d, extending the Platanillo field north. This was followed by Plat-21 which derisked the extension further testing 430b/d.  Plat-25 came in below expectations, but was sidetracked to target better reservoir quality and additional pay thickness, and was brought on production at 180 bbl/d. In December, Plat 27 encountered net pay of 12ft in the U and 9ft in the T sands. This success could add up to 10mmbbl of reserves.

In 2018, drilling activity on Platanillo switches to the N sand stratigraphic play with the upcoming planned three-well programme targeting the 18.8mmbbl N Sand Anomaly (expected to start in Q1 2018).

Mariposa (CPO-5, Amerisur 30%, ONGC 70%)
Mariposa-1 was successfully drilled in May 2017 which flowed at 4.6mbbl/d 41API light oil. The well was drilled to a total depth of 11,556ft with an indicated 120ft net pay in the L3 Sands. The well is now producing around 3,200b/d (gross) on Long Term Test on a restricted choke.

Further drilling is planned on the block in 2018 (including Indico-1 and Sol) which could add material reserves to the portfolio.

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Premier's Christmas present

Premier Oil announced today that the Catcher field achieved first oil on 23^rd December, on schedule and almost 30% below budget. Initial production will be c.10mbopd as gas processing and water injection modules are commissioned. Production will be ramped up in phases through H1 2018 as the Varadero and Burgman fields are brought onstream increasing production to 60,000mboepd (gross).

The Catcher partners are Premier Oil (50% operator), Cairn Energy (20%), MOL (20%) and Dyas (10%). For Premier Oil, Catcher will account for c.25% of 2018 production with successful ramp up of the field important to deleveraging the balance sheet next year. For Cairn, this will diversify the production base following first oil at Kraken (29.5% interest) earlier this year.

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Kosmos: An unfinished West African story

Kosmos has had a busy 2017 chasing a high risk high reward oil play and working up its Senegal/Mauritania gas resources.

In the second half of the year Hippocampe and Lamantin both came in dry ending the company's campaign for higher value oil. It can now focus on developing the c.40tcf of gas found at Tortue, Teranga, Yakaar and BirAllah. It has hopefully found the right partner in BP who farmed-in in late 2016. Although not generally seen as a big gas player, BP is increasingly focussed on gas as it turns to the future - the major is shifting to investing in large scale gas projects and look to increase global production to c.60% gas from the current c.50%.

When we met with Kosmos earlier this year, they noted that they had their choice of Supermajor when seeking a partner with attractive offers from the usual suspects. Kosmos see BP as the partner who is fully aligned with them, with BP going as far as setting up Senegal/Mauritania a separate profit centre to demonstrate their seriousness.

The West African gas play continues to be derisked with the 60tcf Requin Tigre prospect being drilled and results expected in early 2018 which would increase gas resources in the basin to c.100tcf if successful. This could add a significant leg to a multi-phase LNG project. However, a dry well would dampen the high mood in the basin with the growth outlook more constrained.

FID around Tortue is planned in 2018, although success at Requin Tigre could change the development order with Tortue (which straddles the Senegal/Mauritania border) delayed. It should also be noted that gas would come onstream at a time of a gas glut with LNG in North America, East Africa and Australia coming onstream.

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