Zohr II at Calypso offshore Cyprus

Eni has made a sizeable gas discovery offshore Cyprus which could accelerate the country’s path to gas exports. The Calypso-1 discovery was made on Block 6 which is dubbed as a “Zohr like” play.

Full announcement by Eni below:

Eni has made a lean gas discovery in Block 6 Offshore Cyprus with Calypso 1 NFW. The well, which was drilled in 2,074 meters of water depth reaching a final total depth of 3,827 meters, encountered an extended gas column in rocks of Miocene and Cretaceous age.

The Cretaceous sequence has excellent reservoir characteristics. An intensive and detailed data collection (fluids and rock samples) has been executed on the well.

Calypso 1 is a promising gas discovery and confirms the extension of the “Zohr like” play in the Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

Additional studies will be carried out to assess the range of the gas volumes in place and define further exploration and appraisal operations.

Eni is the Operator of Block 6 with 50% of participation interest while Total is partner with the remaining 50%. Eni has been present in Cyprus since 2013 and detains interests in six licenses located in the EEZ of Cyprus (in Blocks 2, 3, 6, 8, 9 and 11), five of which are operated.

Source: https://www.eni.com/en_IT/media/2018/02/eni-announces-a-gas-discovery-offshore-cyprus

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Kenya goes alone with first oil targeting 2021 - plays catch-up with Uganda

Kenya was left at the pipeline “altar” in 2016 when Uganda decided to export its crude via a Tanzanian pipeline instead. The years of work around a joint Ugandan-Kenyan pipeline went to waste as the two countries could not agree on the development with security as well as political factors hindering co-operation between the two countries.

Kenyan oil discoveries in the Lokichar Basin had been left in limbo with no export plan in sight. However, over the course of 2017, Kenya realised it had to go it alone and started evaluating plans for a standalone export pipeline. In October 2017 the Lokichar owners, Tullow, Africa Oil and Maersk, initiated a study including FEED for the proposed pipeline. The ministry announced at the time that it was planning for an 820km pipeline between Lokichar and Lamu at a cost of USD2.1 billion to be completed in 2021.

The pipeline is expected to be FID-ed in 2019 and it has been reported that significant work has been carried out on the routing which has to deal with the complications of security risk, avoiding nature reserves, population displacement, elevation as well as cost.

Tullow’s commitment to the pipeline was followed by a commitment by Total in January 2018, which appears to have been part of the deal to obtain approval for taking over Blocks 10BA, 10BB and 13T from Maersk as part of the Maersk Oil acquisition.

On 7th February, Tullow announced that it progressing Kenya further with plans for an initial small scale development of 210mmbbl with peak production of 60-80mbopd. This would be the first phase of a wider development which originally had a 560mmbbl 2C resource number and peak production of 100mbopd+.

The Tullow-led JV will develop the Amosing and Ngamia fields as an initial 210mmbbl “Foundation Stage” which will include the export pipeline to Lamu, allowing for earlier FID than a full scale project. Foundation Stage upstream capex is estimated at USD1.8 billion and pipeline capex is estimated at USD1.1 billion – this is significantly below the USD2.1 billion estimate announced last year and the USD2.7-3.0 billion a few years ago (for the Kenyan leg only).

This export infrastructure is critical for monetising the discoveries in the Lokichar and also unlock remaining exploration potential in Kenya along the pipeline route. Tullow is targeting an FID in 2019 with first oil in 2021/22.

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Kosmos' end of a winning streak with dry well at Requin Tigre

Kosmos Requin Tigre prospect was announced dry this morning. This was a "make it" well that had the potential to add 60bcf of gas in the Senegal/Mauritania trend and would have increased total gas discovered in the basin to over 100tcf. However, this dry well constrains Kosmos' growth in the basin with no further exploration drilling in area for now. The drillship will now proceed to test two oil prospects offshore Suriname commencing in early Q2 2018.

With three dry wells in a row, Requin Tigre, Hippocampe and Lamantin (the last two targeting liquids), Kosmos shine as an exploration company is now wearing off. It now follows in the footsteps of other E&Ps such as Tullow, which was once an exploration-led company but increasingly focussed on delivering on its projects and commercialising an inventory of discoveries.

For now, it appears that Kosmos' West African story is finished.

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Mitsui victory for AWE battle?

AWE’s board has recommended Mitsui’s all cash bid of A$0.95/share which was received on 28^th January. This superior offer follows a heated battle since the end  of last year.

• November 2017: CERCG cash bid of A$0.71/share conditional on due diligence, rejected following AWE’s assessment that it undervalued the company
• December 2017: CERCG revised cash offer of A$0.73/share
• December 2017: Mineral Resources scrip offer at A$0.80/share
• December 2017: Revised Mineral Resources cash and scrip offer at A$0.83/share – recommended by the AWE board on 21st December
• January 2018: Mitsui all cash offer at A$0.95/share

The Mitsui bid is comparatively clean – all cash, no further due diligence and FIRB approval already obtained. As Mineral Resources did not come back with a superior offer by the deadline of 2^nd February, AWE has entered into an implementation deed with Mitsui with a recommendation to shareholders by the AWE board. Mitsui has a right to match any superior offer and there is a break fee if AWE changes its recommendation.

Mitsui is a natural buyer of AWE and its assets with an established history in Australian E&P. It is in the Northwest Shelf LNG project with Mitsubishi on the west coast, in offshore Victoria gas and Queensland Coal Bed Methane gas project.

Absent any superior offers, Mitsui offer documents are planned to be dispatched to shareholders on Monday 12th February with the offer period for shareholders to accept the offer open until 20th March. The offer required 50.1% acceptances from shareholders to proceed.

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Israel capital cycle: Noble sells down Tamar to fund Leviathan

Noble Energy is divesting 7.5% of its 32.5% interest in the Tamar field for USD800 million. This will reduce Noble’s interest to 25% as required by the Israeli government’s competition requirements. The buyer is Tamar Petroleum who will pay for the acquisition with USD560 million in cash and 38.5 million shares in Tamar Petroleum. The divested interest represents 62mmcfpd of production in 2017 and reserves of 500bcfe.

Noble intends to sell-down the share portion of the consideration over the next few years. After capital gains tax on the USD800 million, Noble will net around USD615 million which it will use to help cover upcoming development expenditure on the giant Leviathan development. The spend in 2018, net to Noble, is USD600 million in 2018 and USD425 million in 2019.

Noble continues to be a major player in the Eastern Mediterranean and advances its contracting efforts on Leviathan where it has signed up 525mmcfpd is gas sales contracts with another 1,100mmcfpd being negotiated.

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EnQuest agrees Thistle decommissioning with BP

Following on from last year's acquisition from BP, EnQuest has agreed with BP to undertake the management of the decommissioning activities for Thistle and Deveron.

EnQuest will receive USD30 million in cash for management of the decommissioning and for taking on 3.7% of the gross decommissioning costs of the Thistle and Deveron fields, subject to a cap of USD80 million. EnQuest estimates its exposure to costs is currently less than the cash being received.

EnQuest also has an option, exercisable over a 12-month period, to receive a further USD20 million in return for taking on a further 2.4% of the gross decommissioning costs of these fields, subject to a cap of USD59 million.

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Endeavour endangers Alba sale for Statoil and Mitsui

Statoil and Mitsui started marketing their stakes in the Alba heavy oil field in the North Sea at the end of 2017. The field is located in a complex reservoir and developed from a steel platform tied to a floating storage unit.

The field has been marketed by partner Endeavour before without success. Endeavour put its stake up for sale in 2015 but failed to attract sufficient interest.

Sources have revealed that interest in the current sales effort is also thin with potential buyers raising a number of concerns:

Non-operated stake Both Statoil (17%) and Mitsui (13.3%) hold non-operated stakes. The operator is Chevron with 23.4%. This limits the new owner’s ability to implement efficiencies, especially as neither on their own or combined have a controlling stake. Chevron is a decent operator, but being a “major” inevitably means inefficiencies and costs creeping in. This is why the likes of BP have passed assets onto more nimble E&Ps who they know can run assets more efficiently.

Limited upside The field has been producing since 1994 and approaching end of life. Production could continue into the late 2020s but at increasingly insignificant volumes. In 2016, Alba produced at 15.3mbopd which compares to a peak of 80-90mbopd in the early 2000s. In 2014, Chevron undertook a 4D seismic survey to identify infill targets – although infill drilling could continue, Chevron has not committed to a full drilling programme of the prospects. Furthermore, Chevron is divided on its view of the North Sea portfolio – it is a good collection of assets generating good cash flow for North America but at the same time focus is turning to the US onshore. With Chevron’s new CEO Mike Wirth coming onboard in February and his background in downstream, the desire to put capital into the North Sea remains in question.

Decommissioning With a large number of wells and a steel platform, decommissioning will be a complex and high cost exercise – no small endeavour for a buyer to take on. Costs are currently estimated at c.USD750 million in real terms and could go up with the blanket of decommissioning activity coming up in the North Sea.

Endeavour bankruptcy Endeavour is the largest partner at 25.7%. Its US parent company entered into financial restructuring and the UK business is under creditor protection. The UK subsidiary Endeavour Energy UK Limited holds the interest in the field and still has debts of close to USD1 billion. The UK business is in default and the lenders, primarily Credit Suisse, have so far have extended repayment deadlines. However, if the lenders pull the plug on the business in light of Alba continuing to be loss making (per latest financial statements), then the remaining partners in the field will be compelled to take on additional stakes in Alba pro rata. This is a risk to a potential new owner and would increase exposure to future capex and decommissioning.

From the buyer feedback, it is clear why Statoil and Mitsui want to exit the asset. For Statoil, the UK North Sea is becoming less of a focus apart from its remaining large developments. For Mitsui its UK strategy appears to be retreat. Whether a sale goes ahead or not remains to be seen.

UPDATE 24 March 2018: Bidders pull out of Alba sale by Statoil and Mitsui

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