Saudi Arabia - joining the dots

A series of blog entries exploring Saudi Arabia's role in the oil markets with a brief look at the history of the royal family and politics that dictate and influence the Kingdom's oil policy

AIM - Assets In Market

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Iran negotiations - is the end nigh?

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Yemen: The Islamic Chessboard?

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Acquisition Criteria

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Valuation Series

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Friday, 22 May 2020

Hurricane Lancaster shuts-in production

On 22nd May 2020, Hurricane announced that it would be shutting in the 205/21a-7Z well at Lancaster. This follows an attempt to increase production at the well to test the viability of reaching 20,000bopd across both wells on the field.

However this attempt had led to unstable production at 205/21a-7Z caused by interference between the existing two wells. Production will now continue at 205/21a-6 only and current production is at 10,300bopd.

Hurricane will be discarding its production target of 18,000bopd for 2021 and has suspended putting out new guidance.

This is disappointing news for those who had placed bets on the risky fractured basement reservoir proposition of the company and now facing another setback.

Thursday, 7 May 2020

Neptune Energy announces completion of seismic survey offshore Egypt


Neptune Energy has announced the successful completion of an ocean bottom nodes (OBN) multiclient survey in the North West El Amal block, offshore Egypt, delivering promising results for further analysis.

The project, prefunded by Neptune, was carried out by WesternGeco, the seismic and geophysical data solutions division of Schlumberger, under a contract with the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC), sponsored by the Egyptian Ministry for Petroleum and Mineral Resources. WesternGeco acquired the survey using third-party vessels.

The survey employed innovative OBN technology to overcome the challenge of acquiring improved imaging in the complex salt geometries of the Gulf of Suez. It was the first ever OBN seismic survey to be conducted in Egypt and the most detailed survey of the block since the first acquisition in 1988, providing an in-depth data set for processing, image analysis, and planning for potential exploratory wells in the future.

The North West El Amal offshore concession covers 365 km2 and is located in the central part of the Gulf of Suez, approximately 42 km south of Ras Gharib and 105 km north of Hurghada. Neptune was awarded the exploration licence in February last year, including the acquisition of 100 km2 of 3D seismic data.

Egypt Managing Director, Gamal Kassem said: “Egypt is important for Neptune and we are pleased to build on our strong relationships with the Ministry of Petroleum and Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation.

“The safe and successful completion of the seismic acquisition is an important achievement and is testament to the careful planning and professional execution by Neptune, EGPC and WesternGeco.”
The project involved placing large numbers of autonomous sensors on the seabed to acquire seismic data, then retrieving them for analysis. The process acquires more detailed data than standard technologies and is less sensitive to weather conditions which can impact traditional seismic survey vessels.

Neptune’s VP Exploration & Development, Gro Haatvedt added: “It’s very exciting to have been involved in the OBN seismic survey, the first time the technology has been deployed in Egyptian waters. Given the geographically-diverse nature of our global portfolio, Neptune is accustomed to working with innovative digital and subsurface technologies to tackle a variety of geological challenges.

“Obtaining subsalt imaging is particularly tough and the OBN technology was well-suited for this purpose. The next step is to analyse the data which has greatly improved our understanding of the block and will support our future plans including potential exploratory wells.”

Source: https://www.neptuneenergy.com/media/press-releases/year/2020/neptune-energy-completes-seismic-survey-offshore-egypt


About North West El Amal
Operated offshore concession in the central part of the Gulf of Suez

Block 4 - North West El Amal Offshore Concession

Status:
Neptune will acquire 100 km2 of 3D seismic data and drill one exploration well in the first phase, with two further wells planned in phase two.

North West El Amal facts:
Neptune was awarded its first operated concession in Egypt in 2019 and signed the concession agreement in 2020 with Minister of Petroleum Tarek El-Molla
The concession covers 365 km2 and is located in the central part of the Gulf of Suez
The area is 42 km south of Ras Gharib and 105 km north of Hurghada

Wednesday, 25 March 2020

Oil giants posturing


Since the collapse of the OPEC+ meetings and in the wake of seismic demand destruction from COVID-19, both Saudi Arabia and Russia have been in a battle of who will blink first with commitments to increase production in the hopes of forcing the other back to the table to recommence production cut discussions. However as of today, there has been no face saving solution for either to MBS or Putin to back down and even Trump's calls to OPEC/Russia to (ironically) help lift oil prices have been ignored.

Despite the strong stance and hard talk by MBS and Putin, neither Saudi or Russia have actually significantly ramped up oil production to date. State-controlled oil companies in the two countries have reportedly hesitated before ramping up production in a show of careful navigation to avoid sending the entire oil & gas industry into oblivion in the potential absence of a winner-takes-all outcome which is becoming more and more apparent.

Monday, 23 March 2020

Shell acts to reinforce business resilience and financial strength


Shell acts to reinforce business resilience and financial strength

23 March 2020

Press release as follows:

As the COVID-19 virus spreads across the world - seriously impacting people’s health, our way of life and global markets - Shell is putting the safety and health of our people and customers first, along with the safe operations of all our businesses.

At the same time, we are taking decisive action to reinforce the financial strength and resilience of our business so that we are well-positioned for the eventual economic recovery.

“As well as protecting our staff and customers in this difficult time, we are also taking immediate steps to ensure the financial strength and resilience of our business,” said Ben van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer of Royal Dutch Shell. “The combination of steeply falling oil demand and rapidly increasing supply may be unique, but Shell has weathered market volatility many times in the past.”

“In these very tough conditions, I am very proud of our staff and contractors across the world for maintaining their focus on safe and reliable operations while also ensuring their own health and welfare and that of their families, communities and our customers.”

In order to deliver sustainable cash flow generation, Shell is actively managing all our operational and financial levers – from focusing on maintaining safe and reliable operations each day to reducing capital spend and operating expenses.

Today, we are announcing that we have embarked on a series of operational and financial initiatives that are expected to result in:

  • reduction of underlying operating costs by $3-4 billion per annum over the next 12 months compared to 2019 levels; 
  • reduction of cash capital expenditure to $20 billion or below for 2020 from a planned level of around $25 billion; and 
  • material reductions in working capital. 

Together, these initiatives are expected to contribute $8 - 9 billion of free cash flow on a pre-tax basis. Shell is still committed to its divestment programme of more than $10 billion of assets in 2019-20 but timing depends on market conditions.

The Board of Royal Dutch Shell has decided not to continue with the next tranche of the share buyback programme following the completion of the current share buyback tranche.

We will continue to review the dynamically evolving business environment and are prepared to take further strategic decisions and consider changes to the overall financial framework as necessary.

In the current environment, Shell’s financial resilience is fundamental to continued investment in our strategic priorities. Shell seeks to maintain strong financial credit metrics and ensure it has a robust balance sheet to manage volatility. Shell’s liquidity remains strong, with around $20 billion in cash and cash equivalents, $10 billion of undrawn credit lines under our revolving credit facility and access to our extensive commercial paper programmes.

Read about Shell’s global response to COVID-19 at https://www.shell.com/covid19.html

Shell will publish its next quarterly update note on 31 March 2020 and release its Q1 2020 results on 30 April 2020.

Notes to editor

  • Divestments of around $5 billion of assets were completed in 2019 
  • Current share buyback tranche refers to the $1 billion share buybacks announced on 30 January 2020 
  • Shell is rated AA- with negative outlook by S&P and Aa2 with stable outlook by Moody’s 

Sunday, 22 March 2020

COVID-19 North Sea Recovery by end 2020

Saturday, 21 March 2020

Which hydrocarbon sources are the highest Greenhouse Gas emitters?


The main culprit we are familiar with as a Greenhouse Gas ("GHG") is Carbon Dioxide CO2. However Methane CH4 is a worse polluter with 25 times the potency as a GHG than CO2.

Below is a comparison of GHG emissions intensity by hydrocarbon source. This includes CO2 and CH4 emissions. Unsurprisingly, energy intensity processes needed to extract hydrocarbons are high on the emissions list.


Tuesday, 17 March 2020

Total Makes a New Gas and Condensates Discovery in the North Sea



Total, Operator, and its partners have made an encouraging discovery with the Isabella 30/12d-11 well on the license P1820, located in the Central North Sea offshore UK, about 40 kms south of the Elgin-Franklin field and 170 kms east of Aberdeen.

The well was drilled in a water depth of about 80 meters and encountered 64 meters net pay of lean gas and condensate and high-quality light oil, in Upper Jurassic and Triassic sandstone reservoirs. The analysis of the data and results are ongoing to assess the discovered resources and to determine the appraisal program required to confirm commerciality.

'The initial results at Isabella are encouraging. This demonstrates that our exploration strategy in the North Sea to explore for value adding prospects nearby to our infrastructure is working.' commented Kevin McLachlan, Senior Vice President Exploration at Total.

The P1820 license is operated by Total with a 30% working interest, alongside Neptune Energy (50%), Ithaca Energy (10%) and the wholly owned subsidiary of Edison, Euroil Exploration (10%).

Source: https://www.total.com/en/media/news/press-releases/uk-total-makes-new-gas-and-condensates-discovery-north-sea