This publication rarely ventures into geopolitics – especially that of the USA – but the rapidly shifting world order warrants a record of where things stand, two months into the term of the new administration.
Many have referred to the current events as a tectonic or seismic shift. We are beyond that now with the destruction of long-held relationships with allies, institutions, and the foundations of democracy. We are in paradigm shift territory. The world has enjoyed, and newer generations have taken for granted, the hard-fought peace since the end of the Second World War and the careful navigation of the Cold War.
The world has since gone through unprecedented times: the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Northern Ireland peace process, 9/11, the invasion of Iraq, the Arab Spring, Brexit, Obama presidency, Khashoggi, the Umbrella Movement, first Trump presidency, COVID-19, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, and most recently the Israel-Gaza conflict.
But we are now in truly unprecedented times. Many of the above events were consistent with the advancement of liberal democracy: a worthy cause that the US, previously a key proponent, no longer stands behind. Even then, the beginning of the current snowball is evident in events like Brexit and the first Trump presidency.
The US is rapidly shifting to a different system built on outdated views of protectionism and mercantilism, and led by hugely misinformed, conspiracy theorist billionaires with false confidence from the successes that life has gifted them. This group is now running a country and system like a business with blatant disregard for the social wellbeing of its citizens, or the rule of law for that matter. The speed of change and disruption is enormous.
Those with the most money and access to the loudest megaphone, aka X fka Twitter, control the narrative. Unfortunately that narrative is populist, twisted, and self-serving. Then again, what else should we expect from a group of misinformed and conspiracy theorist billionaires. As the recent New Zealand envoy to the US put it, “Trump [and this group] does not understand history” – he was dismissed for making this statement. They treat the world as a playground, with enough wealth to protect them no matter what the consequences of their actions. In fact, some would relish a collapse of the status quo so they can play out their end-of-civilisation fantasies in their far-away, ready to go, fully stocked bunkers. This group has used its money and megaphone to bend Washington to its will. The US is quickly descending into plutocracy.
Trump and his cronies hold the worldview where, quoting [x] “might is right”, and an acquiescing neutered Zuckerberg agrees that we need more “macho energy”. This is coherent with Trump’s view that democracy as a system, exemplified by Europe, is weak, loosely blending into his view that Europe has been freeloading off the US. If Trump, his cronies and his supporters really understood politics and how the world worked, they would realise that overseas defence and aid to counter malign influence is a very good deal for the US. The US and its citizens could not have prospered without the global peace we have enjoyed up until now. Ukrainian soldiers are on the front lines right now to protect this peace, not US soldiers.
Where does this leave the US’ allies? The damage is done. It has been made clear that the US can no longer be relied upon and the defence backstop it once provided is now worthless. The assault on institutions, the very visible weakening separation of executive, legislature and enforcement, the attack on free speech, and the vindictiveness of Trump and his administration is taking the US to a very dark place.
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