Saudi Arabia - joining the dots

A series of blog entries exploring Saudi Arabia's role in the oil markets with a brief look at the history of the royal family and politics that dictate and influence the Kingdom's oil policy

AIM - Assets In Market

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Iran negotiations - is the end nigh?

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Yemen: The Islamic Chessboard?

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Acquisition Criteria

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Valuation Series

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Wednesday 21 May 2014

Repsol hit with further delays offshore Namibia: Welwitschia


  • Welwitschia prospect being drilled on PEL0010: Repsol (44%*), Tower (30%), Arcardia (26%)
  • Welwitschia-1 spud last month
    • Due to issues with wellhead housing, well was plugged and abandoned
    • Decision made to drill Welwitschia-1A 50m away, which was spud 1 May 2014
  • Welwitschia-1A now at 1,879m but problems with blowout preventer system has halted drilling
  • Prospect estimated to have multi-billion bbl potential and is being drilled to test the Maastrichtian and Aptian-Albian reservoir sequences

Libya update: co-ordinated militia attacks against Islamists


  • On 16 May, forces loyal to Colonel Haftar attacked the bases of two Islamist militias in the eastern Libyan city of Benghazi: Ansar al-Sharia and 17 February Martyrs Brigade
    • Haftar commands the "national army"
    • Aim of attack to remove Islamist militias from Benghazi
  • Ansar al-Sharia aims to impose Sharia law in Libya
    • Allied with 17 February Martyrs, who report to the Government
  • In Western city of Tripoli, militias allied with the Zintan Brigade also moved in support of Haftar's actions and attached the General National Congress ("GNC")
    • Colonel Obaidi, the chief of staff of the Libyan Army, has said the army will support the GNC and branded the move by Haftar as a coup attempt
  • Increasing number of former Libyan Islamic Fighting Group ("LIFG") have taken up senior Government security positions
    • LIFG as similar ideology to Ansar al-Sharia
      • Two groups rumoured to be working with the Muslim Brotherhood to takeover the governance of Libya
  • Haftar and his affiliates have called for further forces to support his cause, but us unlikely to have the funding and resources to oust the Islamist militants; in Western Libya, the Sintan Brigade is also unlikely to have the resources to capture Tripoli - most likely outcome is protracted fighting and stalemate

Tuesday 20 May 2014

Lekoil acquires 40% WI in Otakikpo Marginal Field


  • 20 May 2014: Lekoil announced acquisition of 40% participating and economic interest in Otakikpo, a Nigerian onshore Marginal Field; located within OML11
    • Vendor: Green Energy
    • Consideration: USD7m upfront, plus USD4m contingent on production and ministerial approval
    • Lekoil will also fund work programme for re-entry of existing wells and all costs up to production (estimated c.USD67m); this is recoverable from enhanced share (88%) of production cash flow
    • Lekoil expects to bring Otakikpo into production within 12-18 months
  • Acquisition and work programme partly funded by placing; 70-80% of the work programme expected to be funded through RBL
  • 2C estimate: 36mmbbl + 31 bcf (gross)
  • Otakikpo has partial 2D and 3D coverage; 3 wells to date, with h/c encountered in multiple intervals; field is close to existing infrastructure
  • Lekoil's other assets are:
    • 30% economic interest in OPL310 (17.14% WI) which contains Ogo. Partners are Optimum (30% economic interest, 60% WI), Afren (40% economic interest, 22.86% WI)
    • 1% in OPL241
    • 77.5% in exploration Blocks 2514A and 2514B, Namibia

Monday 19 May 2014

Oryx: Appraisal drilling update for Demir Dagh, Kurdistan


  • Oryx holds 65% WI in Hawler licence (Operator), KNOC (15%), KRG (20%)
  • On 19 May 2014, announced test results for Demir Dagh-3 ("DD-3") and Demir Dagh-5 ("DD-5") wells
    • DD-3: all four tests flowed successfully; crude quality similar to that at DD-2 and -4
      • Spudded in November 2013, 3km south-east of DD-2
      • Will now be completed as producer with DD-2 and -4
    • DD-5: Logging data and drilling fluid losses during drilling, only small amount of hydrocarbons recovered to surface
  • First production from Demir Dagh Area expected Q2 2014
  • DD-6 plus a further 4 appraisal/development wells to be drilled in 2014 to:
    • further increase production capacity
    • delineate reservoir
  • DD-6 well now spudded
  • Oryx also holds a 50% WI in Wasit, Kurdistan
    • Wasit is close to the super-giant East Baghdad field
    • 5 leads identified with 404mmbbl gross unrisked prospective resources
    • Seismic has been planned on the licence in 2014

Friday 16 May 2014

Petroceltic successfully completes USD100m placing


  • Joint book-runners are Davy, HSBC and Mirabaud
  • Proceeds will be used to "provide financial flexibility to pursue growth opportunities across Petroceltic's existing portfolio and also through new ventures"
  • Dovenby Capital will be a new strategic shareholder, subscribing to USD50m of the placing
    • Dovenby Captial is an investment company led by Dato' Ahmad Fuad, a Malaysian oil and gas industry specialist
Update on assets

  • Algeria
    • Ain Tsila / Isarene PSC - tender for FEED at end 2013, farm-out to Sonatrach (pre-empted) - post farm-out Petroceltic (38.25%), Sonatrach (43.375%), Enel (18.375%)
  • Egypt
    • Award of El Qa'a Plain, North Thekahm South Idku ratified
    • Commenced drilling on South Dikimis in May 2014; gross mean unrisked prospective of 7.6mmboe
  • Kurdistan
    • Shakrok-1 TD reached in April 2014; four zones selected for testing - 2 flowed formation water and no hydrocarbons, remaining 2 zones still being tested
    • On Dinarta licence, preparation for drilling Shireen-1 well, targeting gross mean unrisked prospective of 706mmbbl
    • Petroceltic holds 16% WI in the above two licences, Hess (64%*), KRG (20%)
  • Other assets in Bulgaria, Romania and Italy

Wednesday 14 May 2014

Keystone kills bipartisan energy bill


  • The Energy Savings and Industrial Competitiveness Act was proposed by Rob Portman, a Ohio Republican
    • The bill had aimed to reduce energy needs and cut emissions by offering incentives for adopting energy-saving technology such as water heaters with smart meters
    • More importantly, the bill had bipartisan support
  • As the bill neared the vote, some Republicans tried to attach amendments to the bill to approve Keystone
  • Harry Reid (Democrat), Senate Majority Leader, refused the amendment and the amendment's supporters retaliated by blocking the main bill
  • TransCanada submitted plans for Keystone six years ago for the US to review
    • The pipeline was proposed as a conduit connecting Alberta's oil sands with US Gulf Coast refiners
  • TransCanada's Energy East project which would export the oil sands crude to the Atlantic Coast (New Brunswick) may be an easier option as US approval would not be required
    • Proponents argue that exporting from the east coast is a valuable option with access to the growing Indian markets and the crude would also support Canadian jobs by supplying refineries in Eastern Canada
    • It is also clear that the US no longer needs Canadian crude to help achieve energy independence, a big change since the Keystone plans were submitted

Tuesday 13 May 2014

Statoil divests its 5% WI in 15/06 Angola to Sonangol


  • Statoil announced on 12 May 2014 that it is divesting its 5% WI in Eni-operated Block 15/06 to Sonangol for USD200m
  • Statoil's remaining licences in Angola are Blocks 17, 15, 31, 4/05, 22 (pre-salt), 25 (pre-salt) and  40 (pre-salt)
    • Statoil is also operator of pre-salt Blocks 38 and 39
  • In April 2014, Statoil also farmed down a 15% WI in Block 39 to WRG, a 50/50 JV between White Rose and Genel. Post transaction, interests will be Statoil (40%), Sonangol (30%), Total (15%) and WRG (15%)
    • WRG also acquired, concomitantly, a 15% WI in Block 38 from China Sonangol. Post transaction, interests will be Statoil (55%), Sonangol (30%) and WRG (15%)
  • Exploration on Blocks 38 and 39 will commence during 2014 with the first prospect
  • Dilolo-1 is the first high-impact prospect that will be drilled on Block 39; this will be followed by the second commitment well on Block 38
  • Angola is Statoil's largest contributor to production outside of Norway with 2013 production of c.200mboepd, c.28% of total international output